Okay, so Kirsten Gillibrand and Martin O'Malley beat Rick Santorum/Ted Cruz in 2016 by a landslide. After this, the GOP learns its lesson and nominates the guy who barely lost to Santorum, Chris Christie, and Christie picks his shocking second best competitor, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory who, against all odds, won South Carolina. Who wins?
2016:
Red: Rick Santorum
Green: Chris Christie
Blue: Rand Paul
2020 Iowa Caucus:
Former Governor Chris Christie: 35%
Senator Rand Paul: 26%
Senator Ted Cruz: 19%
Governor Pat McCrory: 8%
Others: 12%
2020 New Hampshire Primary:
Former Governor Chris Christie: 57%
Senator Rand Paul: 22%
Governor Pat McCrory: 15%
Others: 6%
2020 South Carolina Primary:
Governor Pat McCrory: 41%
Former Governor Chris Christie: 38%
Senator Rand Paul: 9%
Others: 12%
From there on, McCrory wins a couple of primaries, but ultimately this is Christie's game.