British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Dereich]

Whats with the Conservative revival anyway? Are they effectively a protest party against the Liberals?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes. I suppose most people think they won't win any seats, but I am interested in whether Cummins will at least win his. He is running in the kind of area that I think would be inclined to vote for his party. His best areas will the Peace River region and the BC Bible Belt (where he is running), as well as the Okanagan Valley.

[batmacumba]

Won't the cabinet resignation trigger an even worse downfall to the Liberals?

[RogueBeaver]

Won't the cabinet resignation trigger an even worse downfall to the Liberals?

Huh? You mean all the senior people stampeding for the exit? Not necessarily given the floor. Same thing often happens with impending landslides- '84 and '93 being great federal examples.

[DC Al Fine]

Won't the cabinet resignation trigger an even worse downfall to the Liberals?

Yes and no. It won't have an effect on the big picture, but individual cabinet ministers will have better shots at retaining their seats than Joe Candidate.

[Foucaulf]

Whats with the Conservative revival anyway? Are they effectively a protest party against the Liberals?

Looking at the polls supplant my claim that the Conservatives rose only after the HST referendum campaign finished. From that we have cause #1 of their rise: the mobilization of the anti-HST campaign, headed by former premier and kleptocrat Bill Van der Zalm. For the former Socreds, seeing their former leader in action reminded them the potential of a renewed right.

By late 2011 John Cummins also started to make headlines, since the Liberals were at a loss wrt policy after the HST debacle. But by 2012 the HST movement failed to evolve to a political force, and party infighting only made the Conservatives seem irrelevant.


The Tyee, my BC news site of choice, has a list of riding projections. Their call is 56-18 NDP with 10 undecideds.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cool. A very American way of doing it.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens are targeting the riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where they are running a star candidate. I was wondering if it were possible for the Greens to win the riding, so I took a look at the results of the most recent federal by-election in Victoria, a riding in which most of Oak Bay-Gordon Head lies.

In the Oak Bay-Gordon Head polls, the Greens won 3417 to the NDP's 2798 (Cons won 1907 votes and Liberals 1658). The rest of Oak Bay-Gordon Head lies in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and we all know who holds that seat. The Gordon Head part of Saanich-Gulf Islands was very friendly to E-May, where she won almost every poll.

So, in conclusion a Green victory here is quite feasible. Of course, if you add the Liberal and Cons vote from the by-election, that hybrid party would win the area, so perhaps the BC Liberals could still win it.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories got 20% in Boundary-Similkameen in 09. Any chance at a pickup?

[Talleyrand]

I remember last summer some seat projections showed the NDP on track to get 78 out of 83 seats due to the vote split on the Right between the Liberals and Conservatives, so I'm assuming the latter party hasn't declined heavily in the polls?

Also, is there any website in which a user can set a uniform swing to see what seats would switch (sort of like the one The Australian has for Australian elections)?

[Marokai Backbeat]

I remember last summer some seat projections showed the NDP on track to get 78 out of 83 seats due to the vote split on the Right between the Liberals and Conservatives, so I'm assuming the latter party hasn't declined heavily in the polls?

The Conservatives have declined quite a bit since then, but not entirely. They basically were a ~2% protest party last election, and are now consistently polling around 9-13%, down from the low-twenties they were pulling in about a year ago. They'll be a thorn in the Liberals side, but not nearly as badly as they were before.

[RogueBeaver]

What Marokai said. As for sites, none exist.

[Benj]

The Tories got 20% in Boundary-Similkameen in 09. Any chance at a pickup?

Seems unlikely. They're too far behind the NDP there. Also remember that the BC Cons only ran in 24 ridings last time, so their increase from 2% to 10% will be smaller in the ridings they actually contested last time.

On a related note: Are the Greens and/or Cons contesting all seats this time?

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories got 20% in Boundary-Similkameen in 09. Any chance at a pickup?

Seems unlikely. They're too far behind the NDP there. Also remember that the BC Cons only ran in 24 ridings last time, so their increase from 2% to 10% will be smaller in the ridings they actually contested last time.

On a related note: Are the Greens and/or Cons contesting all seats this time?

There's still time to file, both parties still need to fill 20+ spots. I imagine both parties will come close, but they'll still have a few riding s without candidates in areas where they are very weak.

[Foucaulf]

Also, is there any website in which a user can set a uniform swing to see what seats would switch (sort of like the one The Australian has for Australian elections)?

Closest I can think of is the UBC Election Forecaster. Related to that is an Intrade-esque outfit on the election results.

With regards to Boundary-Similkameen, I want to point out that it's essentially the federal riding of BC Southern Interior (won last time by the NDP with over 50%) minus the solid NDP provincial riding of Fraser-Nicola. It's always been a competitive riding, and in 2009 the Conservative candidate was the Liberal nominee, but got rescinded.

[Linus Van Pelt]

With regards to Boundary-Similkameen, I want to point out that it's essentially the federal riding of BC Southern Interior (won last time by the NDP with over 50%) minus the solid NDP provincial riding of Fraser-Nicola. It's always been a competitive riding, and in 2009 the Conservative candidate was the Liberal nominee, but got rescinded.

BC Southern Interior also includes much of Kootenay West and some of Nelson-Creston; this is where the real NDP base in the riding is.

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember last summer some seat projections showed the NDP on track to get 78 out of 83 seats due to the vote split on the Right between the Liberals and Conservatives, so I'm assuming the latter party hasn't declined heavily in the polls?

Also, is there any website in which a user can set a uniform swing to see what seats would switch (sort of like the one The Australian has for Australian elections)?

My site is going to have a swing-o-metre very soon. Not one where you can punch in numbers, but more of a chart.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, why don't I just post my raw numbers:

63. Surrey-Green Timbers   -24.35%
30. Kootenay West   -22.13%
76. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant   -21.57%
64. Surrey-Newton   -21.55%
67. Surrey-Whalley   -20.25%
82. Victoria-Swan Lake   -16.99%
81. Victoria-Beacon Hill   -14.51%
4. Alberni-Pacific Rim   -13.82%
50. Powell River-Sunshine Coast   -11.98%
79. Vancouver-West End   -11.93%
37. Nelson-Creston   -11.71%
72. Vancouver-Hastings   -11.59%
24. Juan de Fuca   -11.56%
21. Equimalt-Royal Roads   -11.34%
39. North Coast   -11.18%
38. New Westminster   -10.87%
35. Nanaimo-North Cowichan   -9.41%
14. Columbia River-Revelstoke   -8.67%
34. Nanaimo   -8.51%
74. Vancouver-Kingsway   -8.10%
48. Port Coquitlam   -7.93%
7. Burnaby-Edmonds   -6.79%
59. Skeena   -6.65%
40. North Island   -6.42%
18. Cowichan Valley   -6.34%
73. Vancouver-Kensington   -5.96%
62. Surrey-Fleetwood   -5.64%
19. Delta North   -4.60%
23. Fraser-Nicola   -3.20%
60. Stikine   -2.62%
11. Cariboo North   -1.78%
17. Coquitlam-Maillardville   -1.64%
6. Burnaby-Deer Lake   -1.54%
57. Saanich South   -0.97%
33. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows   -0.66%
32. Maple Ridge-Mission   0.18%
10. Cariboo-Chilcotin   0.34%
56. Saanich North and the Islands   0.44%
43. Oak Bay-Gordon Head   1.10%
25. Kamloops-North Thompson   1.22%
9. Burnaby North   1.34%
8. Burnaby-Lougheed   1.83%
71. Vancouver-Fraserview   1.93%
5. Boundary-Similkameen   2.27%
15. Comox Valley   2.35%
69. Vancouver-Fairview   2.46%
80. Vernon-Monashee   2.72%
66. Surrey-Tynehead   4.64%
77. Vancouver-Point Grey   5.05%
41. North Vancouver-Lonsdale   6.03%
12. Chilliwack   6.11%
49. Port Moody-Coquitlam   6.18%
47. Penticton   6.41%
52. Prince George-Valemount   6.51%
44. Parksville-Qualicum   6.71%
65. Surrey-Panorama   7.22%
29. Kootenay East   7.80%
58. Shuswap   8.04%
26. Kamloops-South Thompson   9.48%
51. Prince George-Mackenzie   9.60%
13. Chilliwack-Hope   9.92%
36. Nechako Lakes   10.23%
31. Langley   10.37%
16. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain   10.69%
75. Vancouver-Langara   11.86%
3. Abbotsford West   12.06%
85. Westside-Kelowna   12.07%
27. Kelowna-Lake Country   12.75%
1. Abbotsford-Mission   12.90%
54. Richmond East   13.14%
28. Kelowna-Mission   13.91%
70. Vancouver-False Creek   14.43%
45. Peace River North   14.59%
20. Delta South   14.92%
22. Fort Langley-Aldergrove   15.43%
42. North Vancouver-Seymour   15.90%
84. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky   16.00%
53. Richmond Centre   16.23%
2. Abbotsford South   16.41%
61. Surrey-Cloverdale   16.45%
55. Richmond-Steveston   16.72%
68. Surrey-White Rock   17.34%
46. Peace River South   18.03%
78. Vancouver-Quilchena   24.74%
83. West Vancouver-Capilano   26.48%

[MaxQue]

Conservatives already lost 2 candidates.

On Monday, Jeff Sprague, candidate in North Vancouver-Lonsdale was arrested for DUI. Obviously, he was remplaced.

On Wednesday, the candidate in Vancouver-False Creek was removed as he said last fall on Twitter: "Who’s really to blame? Hitler or the people who acted on his words?", in January he said "Call me simplistic but I agree with Ron Paul. Drugs should be legalized. All drugs, not just pot. No slope then." and in 2011, he said "We men love sluts". Obviously a bit problematic during an election.

[MaxQue]

Dippers dump their Kelowna-Mission candidate for posting racist remarks about Aboriginals online.

Against Aboriginals and Francophones.

She refused to withdraw and will run as an independant.

[DC Al Fine]

Dippers dump their Kelowna-Mission candidate for posting racist remarks about Aboriginals online.

Against Aboriginals and Francophones.

She refused to withdraw and will run as an independant.

I imagine the Grits will retain the seat.

[MaxQue]

Dippers dump their Kelowna-Mission candidate for posting racist remarks about Aboriginals online.

Against Aboriginals and Francophones.

She refused to withdraw and will run as an independant.

I imagine the Grits will retain the seat.

Even without that, they would have been favored. Kelowna isn't a good place for NDP.
Kelowna-Mission was 65-13-11 (Lib-NDP-Grn) in 2001, 54-32-13 (Lib-NDP-Grn) in 2005 and 54-26-12 (Lib-NDP-Cons) in 2009. NDP is competitive in the south of the downtown and in Rutland.

The map is pretty ugly there, the NDP-leaning downtown in split in 3 and paired with various ultra-liberal suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my swing-o-metre + map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/04/british-columbia-provincial-election_26.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Finally a new poll (Angus Reid)

It shows a minor uptick in the Liberal fortunes, to the expense of the other three parties.

Poll shows:

NDP 45 (-3 from March)
Liberals 31 (+3)
Conservatives 11 (-)
Greens 10 (-1)


Metro Van

NDP 46
Liberals 32
Cons 11
Greens 7


Van Island

NDP 45
Liberals 25
Greens 19
Cons 8

Interior

NDP 41
Liberals 35
Greens 11
Cons 10

North

NDP 54
Liberals 22
Cons 15
Greens 4



That's the 2nd pollster to show the NDP dominating the north. Not sure how that is possible? Maybe I define the north differently...

Last election the "Northern Interior" went...

Liberal 48
NDP 41
Green 6
Cons 1

They defined it as  Cariboo-Chilcotin, Cariboo North, Nechako Lakes, North Coast, Peace River North, Peace River South, Prince George-Mackenzie, Prince George-Valemount, Skeena, Stikine. I guess if those are the borders, than that might be feasible.

[RogueBeaver]

Dix goofed on energy in the debate.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/adrian-dixs-opposition-to-kinder-morgan-and-the-liberals-hopes/article11584071/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter