British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Хahar 🤔]

How low is the Liberal floor in this election? I know that in British Columbia there's a significant portion of the electorate that will never under any circumstances vote for the NDP; with the Conservatives looking less and less like a credible threat, this means it's unlikely for the Liberal tally to drop below a certain point.

[MaxQue]

How low is the Liberal floor in this election? I know that in British Columbia there's a significant portion of the electorate that will never under any circumstances vote for the NDP; with the Conservatives looking less and less like a credible threat, this means it's unlikely for the Liberal tally to drop below a certain point.

Well, some of the usually Liberal voters might just stay home, too.

[Smid]

2009 BC Election Results



Updated to use Earl's Colour Scheme. There are blank maps in the Gallery - two editions, the one I've used here, and one which has all of Greater Vancouver's ridings on the main map (in low detail). Someone uploaded the HST Referendum map, which could probably be useful for discussion in this thread, but I can't remember who - it might have been Teddy or Earl?

Edit: I should note, completed in haste. Errors will be gratefully corrected.

[politicus]

Is red Liberals? (not very logical if it is). I suppose the "Left Coast" must be Dipper territory?

[MaxQue]

Is red Liberals? (not very logical if it is). I suppose the "Left Coast" must be Dipper territory?

In Canada, Liberals are using red since decades. Conservatives are blue, NDP is orange (but was also green or purple in the past).

[Hatman 🍁]

HST map is mine, although I believe Hash had made his own

[Holmes]

Vote Compass: NDP 76%, Green 74%, Liberal 51%, Conservative 25%.

[cp]

Hey everyone.

Vote Compass: NDP 79%, Green 73%, Liberal 59%, Conservative 32%.

Little surprised at how high the Conservative score is, but seems about right all told.

[DL]

I think a weakness of the BC vote compass is a lack of questions that differentiate between the NDP and Green parties - the parties do differ on some issues.

[YL]

NDP 80, Green 79, Lib 57, Con 26 - though I'm actually slightly closer to the Greens on the chart.  I presume I'd vote NDP in practice.

[Dereich]

Vote Compass: Liberals 78%, Conservatives 65%, NDP 51%, Greens 41%. A decent sized difference between the NDP and Greens for me.

[Foucaulf]

How low is the Liberal floor in this election? I know that in British Columbia there's a significant portion of the electorate that will never under any circumstances vote for the NDP; with the Conservatives looking less and less like a credible threat, this means it's unlikely for the Liberal tally to drop below a certain point.

There are two ways to answer this question:

1) One is to look at polling data during the height of the HST crisis, i.e. October - November 2010. The polls from that period, at least those on Wikipedia, show a Liberal mean of around 25%.

2) WRT the "electorate that will never vote for the NDP" question, a case study could be the 1991 election that saw the collapse of the Social Credit government. 24% of the population voted still for the Socreds, faithful to the Socred-NDP bipartisan system.

I would call the "Liberal floor" at a quarter of regular voters. The proportion of Liberal voters in the last two months' polls - around 29% - should be what they're getting in the election, since every Liberal attempt to wage a PR stunt has failed spectacular (see attack ads on Dix, and using government money to get ethnic voters back in the fold)

[You kip if you want to...]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

[RogueBeaver]

The BCLP is a Liberal-Tory coalition in all but name. Clark is a federal Liberal (or more accurately an opportunistic chameleon) but she's hired many Harperites as political staffers. Her predecessor Gordon Campbell was a right-winger. Given the party's radioactivity, neither federal party will formally associate with them- Trudeau declared his neutrality a few days ago.

Here's a Clark profile.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/judgment-day-for-christy-clark-will-bc-give-her-a-second-chance/article11434955/

[DC Al Fine]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

To the point where if Justin Trudeau lived in BC, he'd vote NDP provincially?

[DL]

Christy Clark herself and her charmless ex-husband Mark Marrissen are both dyed in the wool federal Liberals who were heavily involved in Paul Martin's leadership campaign and then in Dion's campaign in 2006 - her inner circle is filled with big L Liberals many of whom are refugees from the McGuinty regime in Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

To the point where if Justin Trudeau lived in BC, he'd vote NDP provincially?

That's a tough one to answer. Canada has 3 different provincial political contexts (Western Canada, English Eastern Canada, and Quebec) and it can be somewhat difficult to figure out where someone from one context would vote in another. It's a bit like guessing where individual SNP politicians would wind up if the SNP didn't exist. You can make an educated guess, but its not foolproof.

Both BC NDP and BC Liberals have found homes in the federal Liberal party. Roughly speaking, the right wing of the party would vote BC Liberal and the left would vote NDP. The Trudeaus are perceived as being on the left of their party, so Justin would probably vote NDP in BC.

[politicus]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

To the point where if Justin Trudeau lived in BC, he'd vote NDP provincially?

That's a tough one to answer. Canada has 3 different provincial political contexts (Western Canada, English Eastern Canada, and Quebec) and it can be somewhat difficult to figure out where someone from one context would vote in another. It's a bit like guessing where individual SNP politicians would wind up if the SNP didn't exist. You can make an educated guess, but its not foolproof.

OK, I thught Ontario and the Maritimes were sufficiently different to be considered different systems.

Is there a clear break between Ontario and Manitoba or is Manitoba politics somewhat transitional between Eastern and Western?

[DC Al Fine]

So, what's the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals? I don't think I quite 'get' it.

Basically none. Provincial parties have varying degrees of closeness to their federal counterparts. BC Liberals are on the extreme side of no contact.

To the point where if Justin Trudeau lived in BC, he'd vote NDP provincially?

That's a tough one to answer. Canada has 3 different provincial political contexts (Western Canada, English Eastern Canada, and Quebec) and it can be somewhat difficult to figure out where someone from one context would vote in another. It's a bit like guessing where individual SNP politicians would wind up if the SNP didn't exist. You can make an educated guess, but its not foolproof.

OK, I thught Ontario and the Maritimes were sufficiently different to be considered different systems.

Is there a clear break between Ontario and Manitoba or is Manitoba politics somewhat transitional between Eastern and Western?

My conservatism's showing now. My division of Canada is based off of Mulroney's winning coalition (Eastern Tories, Western populists and Quebec nationalists). Separating the Maritimes and Ontario is legitimate.

Provincially speaking, there is a clear break between Manitoba and Ontario. Ontario has 3 established parties that have all won elections in the past 30 years (and all 3 have led polls in the last year or so). Manitoba on the other hand is effectively a two party system, with the NDP & Tories garnering upwards of 90% of the vote between them.

[RogueBeaver]

Dix profile.

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/story.html?id=8269672

[Hatman 🍁]

The last EKOS poll showed that:

Federal Liberals are voting 46% BC Liberal, 39% NDP, 10% Green, 5% Conservative
79% of Federal NDPers are voting NDP provincially, 2.5% Liberal (Greens at 9%, and the Conservatives at 5% (lol)
Federal Conservatives are voting 50% Liberal, 30% Conservative, 16% NDP, 3% Green
Federal Greens are 66% provincial Greens, 19% NDP, 9% Liberal and 5% Tory.

[batmacumba]

Well, I've got 75% Green, 71% NDP, 49% Lib, 29% Con. Back to normality, after the Salzburg one.

Here's the behaviour of BC voters in the last 3 years:

[Hatman 🍁]

The swing needed to win for the NDP is just 1.93%. The Liberals have a slight advantage in vote distribution (in contrast to the 1996 election) as with a 1.83%-1.92% swing, the NDP would win the popular vote, but there would be a tie in the legislature.

The 8 seats the NDP needs to win to get to a majority (based upon a uniform swing) would be:

Maple Ridge Mission (0.18%)
Cariboo-Chilcotin (0.34%)
Saanich North and the Islands (0.44%)
Oak Bay-Gordon Head (1.10%)
Kamloops-North Thompson (1.22%)
Burnaby North (1.34%)
Burnaby-Lougheed (1.83%)
Vancouver-Fraserview (1.93%)


For reference, current polling suggests a 7-12% swing which would put the NDP in the 55-65 seat range (out of 85 seats).

[DC Al Fine]

What's everyone's guess as to how many seats the Tories will screw the Liberals out of? Off the top of my head, I'd guess 15-20.