British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Linus Van Pelt]

Is it just me, or is the CBC blatantly supporting the NDP?

How is this even news: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/30/bc-vote-compass-dix-wins-debate.html

CBC has a long-standing bias in favour of the idea that their "Vote Compass" is significant despite being a totally unscientific voluntary online survey.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it just me, or is the CBC blatantly supporting the NDP?

How is this even news: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/30/bc-vote-compass-dix-wins-debate.html

CBC has a long-standing bias in favour of the idea that their "Vote Compass" is significant despite being a totally unscientific voluntary online survey.

Very true, but I have only had a problem with their federal vote compass.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The point was that the choice to run the story "Dix the clear debate winner, say CBC Vote Compass users" might well be explained by Vote Compass bias rather than any supposed NDP bias.

[Foucaulf]

The point was that the choice to run the story "Dix the clear debate winner, say CBC Vote Compass users" might well be explained by Vote Compass bias rather than any supposed NDP bias.

I'd rather CBC tether onto the Vote Compass than celebrity ice-skating, for what it's worth...


Liberal campaign hilarity, #85: the party bought a front-page ad on one of Vancouver's free commuter papers. When I say front-page ad, I mean they bought an entire page that appears before the real headlines.

The ad was a pretend article about how Clark won the leadership question in post-debate exit polls. Evidently the other papers reported on the controversy, and now Quebecor (conglomerate which owns the paper) is scrambling a bit too.


And, in fairness, one NDP candidate has resigned so far after making blog posts about them Native peoples and them getting welfare checks. But a new candidate was found.

[Hatman 🍁]

FR shows the Liberals within 4 :S

NDP: 39
Lib: 35
Grn: 12
Cons: 9

That actually puts the NDP below the last election, believe it or not. (Time to blame the Greens?)

Lwr Mainland

NDP: 42
Lib: 36
Grn: 10
Cons: 9

Van Island
NDP: 39
Lib: 33
Grn: 19
Cons: 8

Interior/North
Lib: 37
NDP: 29
Grn: 16
Cons: 14

[mileslunn]

In the past few years it seems incumbents usually do better on E-day than what they started out with.  I am guessing a lot of the undecideds stick with what they know than don't.  Still I think it is smart money the NDP will win in BC but it won't be a blowout like the Liberal majority was in 2001.  The BC Liberals should at least have a strong opposition as well as they don't have to worry about the BC Conservatives supplanting them as the centre-right opposition.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Ipsos and Angus-Reid will also show a tightening race. Makes sense as we approach the finish line. A firm named Insights has a 33-27 race.

http://www.insightswest.com/news/update-your-insights-on-the-upcoming-bc-election/

[Marokai Backbeat]

/sigh

[Hatman 🍁]

Read more closely. The insights poll shows the NDP with a 41-33 lead among decideds. (12% for the Greens, 11% for the Tories)

Lwr Mainland:
NDP: 41
Lib: 35
Grn: 12
Cons: 11

Van Island:
NDP: 43
Lib: 28
Grn: 20
Cons: 8

Rest:
NDP: 40
Lib: 33
Cons: 14
Grn: 11

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus Reid confirms the race is tightening:

NDP: 41 (-4) [note, last election the NDP lost with 42%]
Lib: 34 (+3)
Grn: 12 (+2)
Cons: 10 (-1)

Metro Van
NDP: 45
Lib: 35

"Southern Interior"
Lib: 42
NDP 29

I'll post more breakdowns when I come across the PDF.

[DC Al Fine]

Read more closely. The insights poll shows the NDP with a 41-33 lead among decideds. (12% for the Greens, 11% for the Tories)

Lwr Mainland:
NDP: 41
Lib: 35
Grn: 12
Cons: 11

Van Island:
NDP: 43
Lib: 28
Grn: 20
Cons: 8

Rest:
NDP: 40
Lib: 33
Cons: 14
Grn: 11

Greens @ 20% in Vancouver Island? They must win a seat or two then.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm convinced the Greens will win Oak Bay-Gordon Head. They may also win Saanich North-Gulf Islands... but I think the NDP will come up the middle and win that one.

[Hash]

Are the Greenies going the Lizzy May way and focusing their resources on those one or two seats or are they actually running a province-wide campaign?

[DL]

Are the Greenies going the Lizzy May way and focusing their resources on those one or two seats or are they actually running a province-wide campaign?

One thing that really speaks volumes is the fact that in the 2009 BC election the Greens ran a full slate of 85 candidates and got 8% of the vote. This time they are only running 60 candidates and several of the ridings where they are not running anyone are very surprising. in Penticton they took 16% last time (their second best showing in the province), this time they have no candidate running there at all. They are also not running candidates in any of the Kelowna seats or in kamloops and in a Prince George seat, plus they have no candidate in  North Island, Alberni or Parksville-Qualicum...in the latter they took 11% last time and the riding is a major NDP target. I figure about 10% of people in that riding will go to the polls expecting to vote Green - they will see no Green name on the ballot, what do you suppose they will do? I suspect two-thirds will vote NDP and the rest will either spoil their ballot or vote Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

10%? Maybe 10% WOULD vote Green, but give more faith to voters' intelligence than that. Perhaps half of that...

But surprising that there are Van Island seats with no Green candidate considering polling. But I suppose much of that Green support is in the Victoria area where they are running candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the Angus-Reid break downs:

Metro Van
NDP: 45 (-1)
Lib: 35 (+3)
Cons: 10 (-1)
Grn: 7 (n/c)

Van Island
NDP: 44 (-1)
Lib: 28 (-3)
Grn: 21 (+2)
Cons: 6 (-2)

Interior
Lib: 42 (+7)
NDP: 20 (-21)
Cons: 14 (+4)
Grn: 10 (-1)

North
NDP: 52 (-2)
Lib: 31 (+9)
Grn: 11 (+7)
Cons: 4 (-11)


Some wild swings going on in the low sample areas.

[DL]

Interior
Lib: 42 (+7)
NDP: 20 (-21)
Cons: 14 (+4)
Grn: 10 (-1)

Some wild swings going on in the low sample areas.

Actually the NDP is at 29% in Interior in that poll not 20% so down 11..not 21. Keep in mind that in most of the interior there are no Greens on the ballot!

[Benj]

FWIW, polls mostly underestimated the NDP last time around. Angus Reid was pretty close but everyone else overstated the Liberals (some dramatically). We'll see if that was a winner bias or a Liberal bias in polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interior
Lib: 42 (+7)
NDP: 20 (-21)
Cons: 14 (+4)
Grn: 10 (-1)

Some wild swings going on in the low sample areas.

Actually the NDP is at 29% in Interior in that poll not 20% so down 11..not 21. Keep in mind that in most of the interior there are no Greens on the ballot!

Oops. That makes more sense.  Still though, it's a large swing, but I bet it can be chalked up to low sample.

FWIW, polls mostly underestimated the NDP last time around. Angus Reid was pretty close but everyone else overstated the Liberals (some dramatically). We'll see if that was a winner bias or a Liberal bias in polling.

Hmmm. From what I've seen, undecideds are leaning Liberal, but that's at least comforting to know. And come to think of it, the NDP has done much better than predicted in the last 2 elections.  I find it hard to believe that the NDP vote share would go down from last election, even though that's what most polls are showing.

[DL]

That one poll by Insight West had some minute sub-sample of people who were undecided who pushed for how they were leaning and they were very very slightly Liberal 29% to 25% - but we are talking about 29% of 15% of people in the poll who were undecided vs 25%. In other words 4.25% to the Libs compared to 3.75% to the NDP - and that's not even counting how astronomical the margin of error would be on a question asked of less than 100 people who were undecided on the first question.

[Hatman 🍁]

Swing and trend maps: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/05/british-columbia-provincial-swing-and.html

[RogueBeaver]

Langley's Liberal candidate Mary Polak parts ways with her campaign manager: she says because he leaked to the Dippers, he says because of concerns about voter homophobia.

Great map Earl!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/05/07/bc-mary-polak-campaign-resign-gay.html

[MaxQue]

Burquitlam is a terrible portmanteau. Commissioners should be ashamed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Burquitlam is a terrible portmanteau. Commissioners should be ashamed.

Luckily no such riding exists anymore. But, I think they can be forgiven as it *may* be a local colloquialism. However, I don't know for sure.

[MaxQue]

Burquitlam is a terrible portmanteau. Commissioners should be ashamed.

Luckily no such riding exists anymore. But, I think they can be forgiven as it *may* be a local colloquialism. However, I don't know for sure.

It seems to be more than a colloquialism, Coquitlam seems to use the word to designate some part of the cities.