British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently there was a below-the-radar red-baiting campaign by the Liberals.

Funny, I didnt think it was that subtle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's BC. That sort of sh!te goes with the territory.

[RogueBeaver]

Clark says that there'll be a fall sitting, might seek a non-Vancouver seat, and promises more corporatism (ugh).

[MaxQue]

Clark says that there'll be a fall sitting, might seek a non-Vancouver seat, and promises more corporatism (ugh).

Interesting definition of corporatism.

[DC Al Fine]

Here's a good explanation for why the BC NDP underperformed compared to the polls



Might want to try weighting according to who will show up to vote

[RogueBeaver]

Dix has said he'll stay on till the review is complete in a few months. Anyone know who might replace him?

[DC Al Fine]

Dix has said he'll stay on till the review is complete in a few months. Anyone know who might replace him?

Dix's main competitors in the last leadership election (John Horgan and Mike Farnsworth) both held onto their seats comfortably. I imagine they'll be at the top of the list.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a good explanation for why the BC NDP underperformed compared to the polls



Might want to try weighting according to who will show up to vote

Pollsters have to be careful to weight by projected turnout and not the general public.

[DL]

Even if Ipsos had weighted to the 2009 turnout their final poll still would have been way off/

[mileslunn]

I think the loss came down to three reasons looking at both the exit polls, where the parties gained and loss and the general trend in other provinces.

1.  Many NDP got complacent and didn't show up as well as younger voters who they are stronger amongst are less likely to vote than older ones.  Most older ones remember the 90s well and some even the 70s so attacking the past NDP record works with this group.  Also in the Ipsos exit poll, they asked people how they voted last federal election and last provincial election.  The numbers were in last provincial election 50% Lib and 32% NDP vs. the actual of 46% Lib and 42% NDP.  In the last federal election it was 43% cons, 25% NDP, and 20% Lib vs. the actual of 46% Cons, 33% NDP, and 13% Libs.  Otherwise it appears many NDP voters stayed home.

2.  The Liberals gained seats where it mattered.  Greater Victoria is where you had the green surge who took from both sides, in Vancouver proper the NDP gained and Liberals lost so had that swing occurred province wide we would have an NDP Government.  Rural Vancouver Island saw no change in seats and virtually identical results in votes so that should be the first red flag.  In fact interestingly enough on the island, the Greens had strong third place showings south of Nanaimo, but north of Nanaimo it was the Conservatives who generally came in third and that area is more resource based thus less likely to support the NDP green policies.  Where they really lost though was the Lower Mainland suburbs and Interior/North.  In the Lower Mainland suburbs much like the 905 belt, people care most about the economy and they weren't able to make the case they were the better managers.  In fact while they gained in Vancouver proper (which the Liberals narrowly won in the last two elections but lost this time around), the Liberals gained in Surrey and beat out the NDP unlike the past two elections.  It also appears that Christy Clark was a lot more popular amongst the Indo-Canadian community than Gordon Campbell as in ridings with large Indo-Canadian numbers, the Libearls jumped by around 10% and the NDP went down by a similar amount suggesting the NDP still won this group, but it wasn't a blowout like in 2005 or 2009.  In the Interior/North, the resource industry is very important for jobs so anyone living there knows developing it means more jobs and that will benefit everyone in the community even those who don't work in it.  Dix's plan to cancel the twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline probably hurt him most in the Interior which is the region that would benefit most from this.  The Lower Mainland suburbs have 35 seats (This includes areas in the Fraser Valley outside the GVRD) and the Interior/North have 24 seats and so out of a total of 59 seats, over 70% went Liberal meaning right there alone they were already over the 43 seats mark.

3.  In tough times, people prefer to stick with the devil they know rather than the one they don't. 
- Federally in 2011, the Tories won a majority in an election they were only expected to win a minority
-  In both Manitoba and Ontario, the governing parties began the campaign more than 10 points back yet pulled off a narrow win.  The only difference here is a least the polls caught the shift.  In fact the PCs in both provinces actually did slightly better than the final polls suggested although worse than the pre-election polls.
-  In Alberta in 2012, the polls showed the WRA ahead by 10% yet they lost by that amount.  Otherwise ever since they mess up in Alberta I have started to become more skeptical of polls and this will make me even more skeptical
- In 2012 in Quebec, the PLQ may have loss but every poll suggested their loss would be much worse, instead they came within 4 seats of pulling off a win.
Otherwise their appears to be a pro-incumbent bias.

Finally I think a big point to mention is had the Conservatives gotten over 10% in BC, the NDP would have won.  The collapse of the Conservatives thanks to Cummins ineptness as well as the fact many of them probably feared an NDP government no doubt played a role.  Whenever the "pro free enterprise vote" is united, they almost always win in BC.  The NDP has only been in power for 13 of the last 80 years and each time they got around 40% which with the exception of 2001 they pretty much always get close to 40% and thus win if their opponents are divided while lose if they are united.

Also we should start doing so maps soon.  I would also like to see how the federal districts would have gone and how the provincial ones went last federal election.  Just eyeballing things it appears the eerily similar with most Conservative ones going BC Liberal and most NDP ones going NDP while the few Liberal and Green going equally between both.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP ends up winning Coquitlam-Maillardville after a re-count!

[MaxQue]

NDP ends up winning Coquitlam-Maillardville after a re-count!

Wrong, it was the final count, where the absentee votes are added. It will go to a juducial recount, now.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP ends up winning Coquitlam-Maillardville after a re-count!

Wrong, it was the final count, where the absentee votes are added. It will go to a juducial recount, now.

Oh; well, the NDP is at least ahead then.

[mileslunn]

BC is different than most provinces as absentee ballots are counted two weeks later rather than on election day.  Also there are way more than in most provinces as how it works in BC is if you show up at any polling station other than your own, you get an absentee ballot which you fill it and it is mailed to your home district.  Otherwise you like in Surrey but work downtown and want to vote a lunch, you just go by any polling station and fill out an absentee ballot.  What is weird, is the NDP always seems to  do really well on the absentee ballots and this was not just this time around, but also the case in 2005 and 2009.  Any special reason why voters using absentee ballots go more heavily NDP?

[Smid]

Different dynamic in Australia (voting on a Saturday, compulsory voting, etc) but absentee ballots tend to favour Labor and the Greens here, too. Postal ballots tend to favour the Liberals, though. I've pondered in the past about absentee votes. Here I put it down to people working on polling day casting a fair proportion of them, as you noted. Being a Saturday when we vote, they are probably more likely to be employed in retail or fast food, so more likely to be younger than the average voter, which may explain it. Not sure about the reason in Canada, but perhaps something similar?

[DL]

-  In both Manitoba and Ontario, the governing parties began the campaign more than 10 points back yet pulled off a narrow win.  The only difference here is a least the polls caught the shift.  In fact the PCs in both provinces actually did slightly better than the final polls suggested although worse than the pre-election polls.

This is a bit of a myth. In Ontario the Liberals and PCs were locked in a close race in polls in late 2010 and early 2011. The only poll that showed the PC with a double digit lead was taken in late May/early June 2011 - right after the federal Liberals were annhilated in Ontario...by the time the writ was actually dropped in early September polls were all showing the Ontario liberals very much back in contention and that PCs had lost their post federal election "bounce"...not much actually changed during the campaign itself.

Similarly in Manitoba there was one polls in late spring 2011 that had the PCs with a significant lead over the NDP - but again by the time the election campaign actually got started in the fall - the NDP had already recovered. 

[mileslunn]

-  In both Manitoba and Ontario, the governing parties began the campaign more than 10 points back yet pulled off a narrow win.  The only difference here is a least the polls caught the shift.  In fact the PCs in both provinces actually did slightly better than the final polls suggested although worse than the pre-election polls.

This is a bit of a myth. In Ontario the Liberals and PCs were locked in a close race in polls in late 2010 and early 2011. The only poll that showed the PC with a double digit lead was taken in late May/early June 2011 - right after the federal Liberals were annhilated in Ontario...by the time the writ was actually dropped in early September polls were all showing the Ontario liberals very much back in contention and that PCs had lost their post federal election "bounce"...not much actually changed during the campaign itself.

Similarly in Manitoba there was one polls in late spring 2011 that had the PCs with a significant lead over the NDP - but again by the time the election campaign actually got started in the fall - the NDP had already recovered. 

Point being that both parties were trailing.  True the comeback started a bit earlier, but the point being there still seems to be a trend of when unsure people stick with the incumbent party.

[lilTommy]

Its final, the NDP won Coquitlam-Mallardville. Thats some consolation for the NDP i suppose...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/06/05/bc-ndp-coquitlam-recount.html?cmp=rss

[Hatman 🍁]

Now that the final count is in, I'll do some maps when I get some time.

[RogueBeaver]

Christy Clark will run in Westside-Kelowna when Liberal MLA Ben Stewart resigns. Very safe Liberal seat, depending on when the writ's issued, by-election could be as early as July.

[RogueBeaver]

W-K will be called next week.

[Peter the Lefty]

Well sh*t

[RogueBeaver]

What's crappy, Peter?

The NDP and Greens will be contesting this by-election, BTW.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's crappy, Peter?

The NDP and Greens will be contesting this by-election, BTW.

I thought the Greens said they weren't?

[the506]

Now that everything's final, the riding map is now available at election-atlas.ca:

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/index.php?e=2013

How long does it take for Elections BC to release the poll-by-poll #s?