British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Peter the Lefty]

What's crappy, Peter?

The NDP and Greens will be contesting this by-election, BTW.

The overall election result.  I wasn't following until just now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now that everything's final, the riding map is now available at election-atlas.ca:

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/index.php?e=2013

How long does it take for Elections BC to release the poll-by-poll #s?

Hopefully before the by-election

[Hatman 🍁]

Swing map:



Obvious trends are obvious. Vancouver proper and more White or Chinese areas in the lower mainland swung to the NDP. More ethnic (read: South Asian) areas in the Lower mainland swung Liberal. Outside the Lower mainland, nearly everything swung Liberal.

[mileslunn]

Swing map:



Obvious trends are obvious. Vancouver proper and more White or Chinese areas in the lower mainland swung to the NDP. More ethnic (read: South Asian) areas in the Lower mainland swung Liberal. Outside the Lower mainland, nearly everything swung Liberal.

While the interior generally seems have swung in favour of the Liberals, it seems the Cariboo ridings were the most heavy.  Not just Cariboo North where you had Bob Simpson running as an independent but also Cariboo-Chilcoltin.  My guess is those areas are fairly right wing to begin with (consider how heavily they vote Conservative federally) and they only went NDP in 2005 due to being hard hit by cuts like school and hospital closures.  With Campbell gone and those behind, they swung back to their previous voting patterns. 

Its true that the ridings with large South Asian population swung heavily towards the Liberals mind you in ridings like Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Newton the NDP was at close to 70% and Liberals only around 25% so its not as though the NDP really had much room to grow to begin with.  My guess is ground organization and Christy Clark's former federal Liberal ties played a role.  While most voters could care less about her federal affiliation, her former ties there probably gave her closer contacts with many key organizers in that community than what Campbell had.  People like Sukh Dhaliwal and Prem Vinning are both federal Liberals who are close to Christy Clark.  Also back in 2004, one Indo-Canadian men was sent home from the hospital due to lack of beds and died choking on his blood.  This was a huge scandal in the Indo-Canadian community and really hurt Campbell amongst them.  Also with Delta North and Surrey-Fleetwood being more competitive, there is no question in my mind the gains amongst South Asians gave the Liberals enough votes to go over the top here.

A final question sort of on a different one is anybody have any idea why Prince George has swung so heavily towards the Liberals over the past 15 years.  It went NDP in the 90s and even in the 80s was quite competitive whereas in the past two elections the Liberals won by landslides here.  In fact I figure if the BC Liberals only won 25 seats like some polls suggested they still would have held both Prince George ridings.  The only one I can think of is decline of forestry and rise of mining as I believe the NDP has tended to do well amongst those in the forestry industry whereas the BC Liberals tend to do well amongst those in the mining industry.  Any other thoughts.

[RogueBeaver]

Dippers are doing a second post-mortem, with the possibility of a third, inquiry-type one later this year. Dix might quit before then.

[the506]

Poll-by-poll maps are up.

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll-by-poll maps are up.

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/

Great stuff, as always. Saanich North and the Islands is quite interesting. The NDP won the riding but looks like they didn't win the poll war. They won very few polls in Saanich North, and won most of the polls in the islands. I would have thought the Greens would have cleaned up in the islands, but it looks like they did better in Saanich North.  FTR the race there was a near perfect 3-way race.

[lilTommy]

Poll-by-poll maps are up.

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/

Great stuff, as always. Saanich North and the Islands is quite interesting. The NDP won the riding but looks like they didn't win the poll war. They won very few polls in Saanich North, and won most of the polls in the islands. I would have thought the Greens would have cleaned up in the islands, but it looks like they did better in Saanich North.  FTR the race there was a near perfect 3-way race.

I think the Green was a North Saanich councillor, while the NDP candidate was regional director for the islands

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll-by-poll maps are up.

http://election-atlas.ca/bc/

Great stuff, as always. Saanich North and the Islands is quite interesting. The NDP won the riding but looks like they didn't win the poll war. They won very few polls in Saanich North, and won most of the polls in the islands. I would have thought the Greens would have cleaned up in the islands, but it looks like they did better in Saanich North.  FTR the race there was a near perfect 3-way race.

I think the Green was a North Saanich councillor, while the NDP candidate was regional director for the islands

Oh, that makes sense. If the NDP didn't select someone from the Islands, they have lost the seat to the Greens or Liberals.

Another interesting poll map I found was Cariboo North. NDP still managed to win some polls. And of course the Peace River ridings. The Tories actually won some polls up there.

[mileslunn]

I am currently doing a municipal by municipal breakdown.  I've already completed 2009 and working on 2013 so anyone interested in any particular one?  It looks like looking at things preliminarily that Vancouver narrowly went BC Liberal in 2009 but flipped to the NDP in 2013 while Surrey went in the other direction.  It also looks like in 2009, the results in Kamloops were close to the provincewide average (Kamloops is a quintessential bellwether town as it has always back the government although in 1996 when split in two one went for the NDP who won the election and won the BC Liberals who won the popular vote, while every other election since 1903 its been represented by a government MLA), whereas in 2013 it looks like the BC Liberals were close to 10% above the province wide average in Kamloops while the NDP was a few points below.  Also it seems Prince George has really swung rightward.  It used to be competitive or had a slight NDP tilt in the 90s whereas today BC Liberal support has been 10-15 points above the provincewide average, otherwise I wonder if it is becoming more like Kelowna in terms of now solidly BC Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you post all the results or at least by RD then I can make a map for you (of 2009)

[mileslunn]

If you post all the results or at least by RD then I can make a map for you (of 2009)

Sure I can give you the results once done for both of them.  I only did the built up areas, not the electoral areas but considering most have only a few polls probably through eyeballing the maps on election atlas by 506 that would be pretty easy.  Another interesting one would be to figure out how the federal ridings voted and likewise how the provincial went federally.  I am guessing that the results were shockingly similar with most the BC Liberal ridings going Conservative federally and most BC NDP going NDP federally with a few exceptions off course.  Federally, I suspect the BC Liberals won every Conservative riding save Nanaimo-Alberni and Vancouver Island North (and those were quite close anyways) while the BC NDP took every NDP riding plus those two and Vancouver Centre and Saanich-Gulf Islands.  Vancouver-Quadra I suspect went BC Liberal however. 

As for GVRD, I should note these were the winners in 2009 (I haven't done 2013 fully yet).

BC Liberals: Lions Bay, Bowen Island, West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, North Vancouver city, University Endowment Lands, Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Anmore, Belcarra, Richmond, Delta, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Langley city, Langley DM

BC NDP: Burnaby, New Westminster, Port Coquitlam, Surrey, Maple Ridge

By percentage

BC Liberals over 60%

West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, Anmore, Richmond, Langley DM

BC Liberals 50-60%

Lions Bay, Port Moody, White Rock, Langley City, Belcarra, University Endowment Lands, Barnston Island

BC NDP over 50%

New Westminster, Port Coquitlam

BC Liberals 40-50%

North Vancouver city, Bowen Island (40-36% against Greens), Vancouver (Liberals won by 2,000 votes only), Burnaby (NDP won by less than 1%), Coquitlam (Liberals got 49.5% vs. NDP 39.5%), Delta, Surrey (NDP won 48-44%), Pitt Meadows (Liberals won by less than 1%), Maple Ridge (NDP won by under 1%).

NDP 40-50%

Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Langley City (50-40% for Liberals)

BC Liberals under 40% (they got at least 33% in all GVRD municipalities)

New Westminster and Port Coquitlam

NDP 30-40%

North Vancouver city, University Endowment Lands, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Delta, Langley DM, Anmore, Belcarra, Barnston Island

NDP under 30%

Lions Bay, Bowen Island, West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, Richmond, White Rock

West Vancouver was the only municipality where they got less than 20% while the BC Liberals got almost 70% there.  Off course I believe it is one of if not the richest municipality in Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, what about all of Greater Vancouver A Electoral Area combined (I noticed you split it up)?

[mileslunn]

Hmm, what about all of Greater Vancouver A Electoral Area combined (I noticed you split it up)?

True, although most of the population live in University Endowment Lands and the rest of Greater Vancouver Electoral A is mostly the mountain area where hardly anyone lives.  In fact the number living in the other areas is probably so small they merge the polls anyways (when the numbers are too small they merge them for reporting purposes to protect the secrecy of the ballot).

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, what about all of Greater Vancouver A Electoral Area combined (I noticed you split it up)?

True, although most of the population live in University Endowment Lands and the rest of Greater Vancouver Electoral A is mostly the mountain area where hardly anyone lives.  In fact the number living in the other areas is probably so small they merge the polls anyways (when the numbers are too small they merge them for reporting purposes to protect the secrecy of the ballot).

Oh, I thought Bowen Island was in it for some reason. Yeah, I guess most of the population is in the endowment lands.

[mileslunn]

I've now done BC but might be tough to do a map unlike Southern Ontario just because the way the municipalities are drawn up, but I am more than happy to discuss the results in any of interest.  A couple interesting results were as follows

In Northwestern BC (North Coast, Skeena, and Stikine) almost all the towns either went BC Liberal or narrowly NDP otherwise it seems it was the Indian Reserves as these areas have large aboriginal populations that tipped this in the NDP's favour.  Even Prince Rupert and Kitimat only barely went NDP.  Kitimat was a surprise as the NDP won it by a landslide in 2009 so I wonder if the terminals for LNG and the pipeline helped as many though it would create jobs.  Prince Rupert goes heavily NDP federally (I suspect a lot are personal Nathan Cullen votes) but provincially in both 2005, 2009, and 2013 only narrowly.

In Vanderhoof, the BC Conservatives came in second while the NDP in third.  Not sure why, but this town seems to vote quite heavily for parties on the right at both the federal and provincial level; more so than surrounding ones.

The Independent candidate won several polls in the northern parts of Kootenay West so I am guessing that is where he is from and is well known there.

Fort Nelson only narrowly went BC Liberal over NDP in 2009, but went this time massively BC Liberal.

Despite change in Fraser-Nicola, the results in Merritt have been consistent over all three elections, otherwise each time the BC Liberals won by 1-3 points.

On the Island, Tofino and Uculuet swung quite heavily towards the NDP.  The NDP barely won Ucuelet in 2009 and even in Tofino the BC Liberals had a strong second place showing while this time the NDP got 70% in Tofino.  I am guessing it is a very environmentally conscious area some Campbell's carbon tax helped them.  Port Alberni however didn't go as heavily NDP as 2009 so that cancelled out this swing and its more of blue collar resource town.

In Saanich North & the Islands; the Islands went solidly NDP unlike federally where they went Greens.  The NDP came in third on the mainland and the Greens were strong there.  North Saanich and Sidney both narrowly went Liberal but the Greens had a strong second and NDP came in third while in Central Saanich the Greens won, Liberals second, and NDP third.

In Esquimalt-Royal Roads, the Greens came in second in Esquimalt with the Liberals in third while in Colwood and View Royal the Greens were weaker and the Liberals were much more competitive although still lost. 

In West Vancouver-Sea to Sky; Squamish went NDP, but the Liberals both times easily won Pemberton even though it went NDP federally while Whistler the BC Liberals cracked the 50% both times even though the federal Tories only got around 25% there.  I am guessing wealthy but educated. Interestingly enough in the US, ski resorts tend to go quite heavily Democrat while in Europe they heavily favour parties on the right.  In some ways Canadian elections are like the US with the Conservatives being seen like the GOP and Liberals, NDP, and Greens like the Dems; whereas in Europe they are more like BC elections with a socialist party vs. a pro free enterprise coalition.

It seems Joe Trasolini being a popular Port Moody mayor helped the party there as in Port Moody the BC Liberals won by 16 points in 2009, but only 4 points in 2013 whereas in the Coquitlam portion the results were in unchanged.

Just glancing at many polls, it appears in Burnaby and Coquitlam, the Liberals won more polls than last time otherwise gaining in the middle class areas, but the results were only unchanged as in the wealthy enclaves they didn't rack up the huge margins as they did in 2009, otherwise suggesting they did better amongst the middle class but worse amongst the wealthy.  Even in Vancouver-Point Grey, very few polls changed, rather Kitsilano was unchanged but in West Point Grey and the waterfront properties of Kitsilano, the Liberals won by not with the obscenely large numbers like they did in 2009.  Also Campbell was from West Point Grey unlike Clark so his roots probably helped him a lot as opposed to Clark who was an outsider.

Vancouver flipped from the Liberals to NDP, but Surrey flipped in opposite directions.

[mileslunn]

Here are the GVRD by municipality.

Liberals: Lions Bay, West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, City of North Vancouver, University Endowment Lands, Coquitlam, Anmore, Belcarra, Port Moody, Richmond, Delta, Surrey (gain), White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge (gain), City of Langley, Langley DM, Barnston Island

NDP: Bowen Island (gain), Vancouver (gain), Burnaby, New Westminster, Port Coquitlam

By percentage

Liberals over 70%

West Vancouver

Liberals over 60%

Lions Bay, Anmore, Belcarra

Liberals 50-60%

University Endowment Lands, Richmond, White Rock, Langley DM, North Vancouver DM

Liberals 40-50%

North Vancouver city, Vancouver, Burnaby, Port Moody, Coquitlam, Delta, Surrey, City of Langley, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge

Liberals 30-40%

Bowen Island, New Westminster, and Port Coquitlam.  New Westminster was their worst at 33% and likewise the only municipality where the pro free enterprise vote (BC Liberals + BC Conservatives) was under 40%, it was 39% there (I included the Libertarians in that riding as they are on the right too).

NDP over 50%

Port Coquitlam (which ironically went over 50% Conservative federally although both Mike Farnworth and James Moore are quite popular personally so I think that skews the results as both probably got a fair amount of personal votes.  Heck there is a remote possibility this riding after 2017 might be represented by both the PM and premier as both have leadership potential for their parties).

NDP 40-50%

Bowen Island, Vancouver, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, New Westminster, Surrey, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge

NDP 30-40%

North Vancouver DM, North Vancouver City, Belcarra, Anmore

NDP 20-30%

Lions Bay, Richmond, Delta, White Rock, Langley DM, Langley City, Barnston Island

NDP under 20%

West Vancouver

[mileslunn]

Also it would be interesting to see who the winners in the last federal election were in each provincial riding and how each federal riding would have gone.  It looks like most areas that went Conservative went BC Liberal and most areas that went NDP went NDP otherwise not much change.  The federal Liberals have always been a mixed bag.  In 2004, North Vancouver, Richmond, Vancouver-Quadra, and Vancouver South all went solidly BC Liberal in the 2005 provincial election while Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, and Vancouver-Kingsway went solidly NDP, while Vancouver Centre was a close race so it suggests their vote splits pretty evenly between the two parties.