2012 Election Game: Campaign Thread
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  2012 Election Game: Campaign Thread
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Author Topic: 2012 Election Game: Campaign Thread  (Read 79082 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #875 on: March 25, 2014, 11:07:12 AM »

A couple quick notes:
- Ventura ads will not be fully counted as it is impractical that he has been able to run so many ads down the stretch.
- Once again, trying to excuse Obama for skipping a week will not work.



Election Night 2012

Good evening, and welcome to Election Night 2012.

This has certainly been a turbulent election season - after the dramatic withdrawals of Hutchison and Daniels in the GOP primary, the nomination was handed to Senator Kelly Ayotte, a Freshman Senator from New Hampshire with little political experience and little campaign infrastructure. Many pundits immediately wrote her campaign off, and President Obama built a commanding lead during the summer. But Ayotte kept fighting - she chose New Jersey Governor Chris Christie as her running mate, and after a strong convention, they were right back in the thick of things.

The Ayotte campaign has been far from perfect, but what has been even further away is the Obama campaign, marred by scandals and disappearances by both Obama and Clinton. Critics have argued that former President Bill Clinton has been more active than either of the candidates.

Adding to the mess is the Ventura/Paul ticket, which has been the strongest third party candidacy since Ross Perot. They seem destined to break 5% in the popular vote, providing a huge future boost to the Libertarian Party. Can they win a state? Doubtful, but they will certainly impact the results in several states.

6:00 PM: It is now 6:00 PM, and polls have closed in Kentucky and Indiana.

Based on exit polls, we can now project that Senator Kelly Ayotte will win the state of Kentucky. Indiana remains too close too call.

6:45 PM: Turnout has been especially strong in GOP areas of Indiana, and with that, we feel comfortable projecting that Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry the Hoosier state. We can also project the State Senator Mike Delph will defeat Congressman Joe Donnelly for the Senate seat. The Governor's race remains too close to call.

7:00 PM Polls have now closed in Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. We can project that President Barack Obama will carry the state of Vermont. We can also project that Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry South Carolina. Everything else remains too close to call.

 
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #876 on: March 25, 2014, 11:45:16 AM »

Scandals? Seriously!?
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #877 on: March 25, 2014, 12:01:26 PM »

Looking good so far. Will we get the percentages for the states?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #878 on: March 25, 2014, 02:38:45 PM »

Serious as a turkey on Thanksgiving.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #879 on: March 25, 2014, 02:51:20 PM »

I'm excited for the results. In hindsight, I wish I spent more time fundraising as Paul; the moneybombs would have worked. Oh well Tongue. Onwards to 2016!
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #880 on: March 25, 2014, 02:57:39 PM »

I'm assuming Perry doesn't run in 2012.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #881 on: March 25, 2014, 05:12:04 PM »

I knew you were going to say that there wouldn't be money for so many ads, but I think the "ads boom" only came in the last week. I think that IRL, with a 3rd party over 15% of the vote, many would have donated and the campaign would assume some debts... And I think most of the ads I released weren't TV ads, and radio ads are way cheaper...

Great job anyways, Isaac. Thank you for all your interest in the game. I think this one will be the second interactive election game that doesn't die before election night! Congratulations Smiley

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Lumine
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« Reply #882 on: March 25, 2014, 05:20:15 PM »


That and this game's field ended up being drastically different. Corker, Romney and Cain withdrew very early (among with Cheney, Thune, Bush and Bachmann), then Roemer, then Huntsman and Huckabee were knocked out, Paul got banned (and thus withdrew) then I (Daniels) was knocked out, then Hutchinson withdrew out of nowhere and... well, Ayotte/Christie!
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Lumine
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« Reply #883 on: March 26, 2014, 08:03:41 PM »

Ehhhh... Bump?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #884 on: March 26, 2014, 09:16:17 PM »

7:30 PM Polls have now closed in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina. We can call West Virginia for Senator Ayotte.

7:52 PM Obama made an early play for Georgia, and at one point in the summer lead there, but Ayotte/Christie have pulled through, taking the state by what looks to be around a 50-43-6 margin.

8:00 PM Polls have now closed in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.

We can immediately project that Senator Ayotte will carry Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. We can also project that President Obama will take Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.



8:30 PM Polls have closed in Arkansas, and we can easily call it for Ayotte. Another impressive showing by Ventura, who garnered around 12% in the exit polls.

8:44 PM We are ready to make two projections. Senator Ayotte will carry Missouri, while President Obama will take Connecticut. Additionally, we can project that the President will win the first congressional district of Maine.
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #885 on: March 26, 2014, 09:31:55 PM »

Right now, few surprises, in the end, we were more on the defensive than in the other way... Let's see how things go... Go Clinton, Go Obama! No Good News on Maine but Candidates were obsessed with the state Tongue
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #886 on: March 26, 2014, 10:07:24 PM »

Let's go Ventura/Paul!
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #887 on: March 26, 2014, 10:10:53 PM »

If we're getting 12% in a Southern state where I never campaigned then that should bode well for us. Smiley
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #888 on: March 27, 2014, 11:39:04 AM »

There will not be an update today - I have several large assignments due tomorrow that I still need to complete. I will complete this on Friday and Saturday.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #889 on: March 29, 2014, 12:25:23 PM »

I'm sorry guys - I am heavily involved with Student Senate elections right now so don't have a lot of free time. I'm going to get all of the results posted very soon, and it will follow with Congressional and Gubernatorial results.



9:00 PM Polls have now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

With new projections, here is where the current map stands.


Ayotte - 164
Obama - 95

9:12 PM At this time, we have enough data is several key states to make a projection...

President Barack Obama will carry New Jersey. Chris Christie's presence on the Republican turnout boosted GOP efforts here, but ultimately it was not enough to tip the Garden State. Obama is currently leading by a 48-42-9 margin.

Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry North Carolina. North Carolina swung to Obama in 2008 in an upset, and both side fought hard for the Tarheel state this time as well. Ultimately, the national mood shifted enough for Senator Ayotte, and she takes the state by roughly 4 points, 49-45-5.

President Obama will carry Michigan. Like New Jersey, this should not be much of a surprise to anyone, but it is alarming to the Democratic camp that it took this long to call. President Obama is currently leading 46-44-9.

Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry her homestate, New Hampshire. New Hampshire is typically a crucial piece to the puzzle in an election, though many expected it to fall into the GOP column tonight. A good sign for Ayotte that she was able to hold it - she currently is leading by a 45-39-13 margin. A strong showing for Ventura/Paul in the Granite State, though it appears the ticket was overpolling in the final days of the campaign as the numbers between Ayotte and Obama got closer and closer.

Arizona goes to Kelly Ayotte - we wanted to see a couple numbers come in before calling it, but at this point it looks certain that she will win. She leads President Obama 50-39-10.


Ayotte - 194
Obama - 125
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #890 on: March 29, 2014, 01:20:30 PM »

9:34 PM The night hasn't started off great for the Obama/Clinton campaign, with the Republicans looking to sweep the south despite Clinton's presence and also the closeness of the results in several Democratic strongholds. Despite that, the Obama campaign can breath a small sigh of relief - we can project that both Minnesota and New Mexico will stick with the President.

These were two states heavily contested by the Libertarian ticket of Ventura/Paul, and after some disappointing numbers out east, they have a reason to be happy. Numbers in Minnesota currently have President Obama leading with just 39%, following by 34% for Ayotte and 26% for Ventura. New Mexico also has the former wrestler and Governor pulling just over 20% of the vote.

9:39 PM A small victory for the Ayotte Campaign, but certainly one that Governor Chris Christie will be thrilled about - Maine's 2nd congressional district will be voting GOP tonight. Governor Christie invested a large amount of time in Maine, and while it remains uncertain whether they will win the state's at-large electors, it is certainly a relief to see that all that time wasn't completely wasted.

Fast forward to 11...

11:00 PM Polling is now closed in the lower 48 states! Based on exit polls, we can make some automatic projections. Here is where the election currently stands:


Not great news for Obama - we just don't feel comfortable calling Oregon or Washington for the President at this time, as his lead in the exit polls were not where we felt they needed to be.

11:09 PM Get ready folks, as we have a couple big projections coming your way.

First, we can finally project that the President will carry Wisconsin. Early on it was a back and forth battle, but President Obama appears to have taken a lead he will not be relinquishing. He currently leads 46-44-9.

Another huge projection for the President - at this point, we can project that he will also carry the critical state of Pennsylvania. Republicans made a strong play for Pennsylvania this year, and several polls even had the Ayotte/Christie ticket leading in the closing days. Ultimately it will stick with the Democrats, though it looks like a razor-thin margin. Based on where the outstanding precincts are, we are confident Obama will carry the state.

Pennsylvania (78% Reporting)Sad
Obama/Clinton - 45.53%
Ayotte/Christie - 45.26%
Ventura/Paul - 8.67%

11:32 PM With the numbers that have come in, we can now project both Washington and Oregon for the President.


Obama-244
Ayotte-208

Ohio (85% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.43%
Obama/Clinton - 45.86%
Ventura/Paul - 7.53%

Florida (77% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 45.35%
Obama/Clinton - 44.24%
Ventura/Paul - 9.67%

Colorado (36% Reporting):
Obama/Clinton - 44.26%
Ayotte/Christie - 44.19%
Ventura/Paul - 10.98%

Virginia (90% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.43%
Obama/Clinton - 46.01%
Ventura/Paul - 6.98%

Iowa (51% Reporting):
Obama/Clinton - 45.34%
Ayotte/Christie - 44.12%
Ventura/Paul - 10.35%

Maine (95% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 43.36%
Obama/Clinton - 43.21%
Ventura/Paul - 14.67%
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #891 on: March 29, 2014, 01:24:34 PM »

:-. For Wisconsin. At least, I was there sometimes!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #892 on: March 29, 2014, 01:45:19 PM »

12:00 PM It is now midnight, and polls have finally closed in Alaska, which we can immediately call for Ayotte/Christie.

12:25 PM We now have a HUGE projection to make, folks. After constant back and forths, with 99% of precincts now reporting, we can project that Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry the critical state of Ohio. No republican has won the White House without first carrying Ohio, and this is a huge win for the Ayotte campaign.

Ohio (99% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.21%
Obama/Clinton - 45.92%
Ventura/Paul - 7.47%

Based on current projections, it looks like Senator Ayotte may win the Popular Vote - she currently has a modest lead on President Obama. That was expected to close significantly with California, but while Obama leads there by a large amount, voter turnout isn't anywhere near 2008.

12:31 PM The results are almost certainly headed to a recount in Maine - all but one precinct has reported. That is a precinct in a rural community just north of Augusta in an area we would expect to be won by Ayotte/Christie. Trouble with the voting machines appear to be the problem, but with the current numbers, Ayotte/Christie will need every bit of help maintaining their narrow lead.

Maine (99% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 43.28% (Leads by 96 votes)
Obama/Clinton - 43.23%
Ventura/Paul - 14.67%

12:44 PM At this point, we are ready to project that Senator Ayotte will carry Florida. She has lead there almost all evening, but given past results, we wanted to wait until we were absolutely certain.


Ayotte - 260
Obama - 244

The Ayotte campaign can practically taste victory right now - a win in either Virginia or Colorado clinches it for Ayotte, though Christie's status as VP would be in question if only Colorado is carried due to only being at 269. A combination of both Nevada and Iowa would also clinch it.

Right now, Ayotte clings to a narrow lead in Virginia, though with some precincts reporting, we expect that to get even narrower. President Obama continues to narrowly lead in Nevada and Iowa, while Senator Ayotte has retaken the lead in Colorado.


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tmthforu94
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« Reply #893 on: March 29, 2014, 01:55:56 PM »

1:13 AM 99% of precincts are now reporting in Virginia...

Virginia (99% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.48%
Obama/Clinton - 46.11%
Ventura/Paul - 6.86%

The margin is slim, and a recount is likely, but based on current numbers, we can project that Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry Virginia.

Kelly Ayotte has now crossed the 270-Electoral Vote threshold. We can now tentatively project that Senator Kelly Ayotte and Governor Chris Christie will be the next President and Vice President of the United States!

1:41 AM Nevada and Iowa are both called for President Obama.

2:13 AM Another recount is likely here, but Senator Ayotte is projected to carry Colorado, winning by .34%.

(Subject to Change)
Senator Kelly Ayotte/Governor Chris Christie - 282 Electoral Votes, 45.65% of Popular Vote
President Barack Obama/SoS Hillary Clinton - 256 Electoral Votes, 43.96% of Popular Vote
Governor Jesse Ventura/Congressman Ron Paul - 0 Electoral Votes, 10.32% of Popular Vote
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #894 on: March 29, 2014, 01:59:52 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2014, 02:02:07 PM by SoEA Superique »

OOC: Both Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were massively visited by Obama and Hillary during this campaign trail. Having just one of them going for us looks pretty strange but we will concede anyway... I feel like Jimmy Carter...

Congrats for Jerry, but especially to Lumine that basically carried the Republican Campaign in the end...
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #895 on: March 29, 2014, 02:00:32 PM »

I'd recommend using gold as the color for Ventura/Paul. It is easier to read and is one of the secret colors of Atlas.

I guess Spiral and Superique better get their concession speechs up. Congrats Jerry!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #896 on: March 29, 2014, 02:04:54 PM »

OOC: Both Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were massively visited by Obama and Hillary during this campaign trail. Having just one of them going for us looks pretty strange but we will concede anyway... I feel like Jimmy Carter...

Congrats for Jerry, but especially to Lumine that basically carried the Republican Campaign in the end...
And you don't think Ayotte/Christie campaigned there? I don't think it's strange at all, especially considering all three have a slight Republican tilt in an even election. Obama disappeared from the trail multiple times - being an incumbent who is being perceived as a week later is practically "DOA" in American politics. Both campaigns were primarily pushed by the VP candidate, but Ayotte put in a bit more effort than Obama, and that was enough to give them the win.
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #897 on: March 29, 2014, 02:11:52 PM »

OOC: Both Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were massively visited by Obama and Hillary during this campaign trail. Having just one of them going for us looks pretty strange but we will concede anyway... I feel like Jimmy Carter...

Congrats for Jerry, but especially to Lumine that basically carried the Republican Campaign in the end...
And you don't think Ayotte/Christie campaigned there? I don't think it's strange at all, especially considering all three have a slight Republican tilt in an even election. Obama disappeared from the trail multiple times - being an incumbent who is being perceived as a week later is practically "DOA" in American politics. Both campaigns were primarily pushed by the VP candidate, but Ayotte put in a bit more effort than Obama, and that was enough to give them the win.

For God's Sake! How could I know that Clinton1996 would leave the Campaign Trail without even telling me! I had things in real life to so it checked this board periodically and usually Obama tends to post in the end of all them.

Bah, anyway, I might say that I'm very proud of myself because otherwise we would have a 300+ Unrealistic Win for Ayotte. You may be angry at me because I've been moaning all along this game but I really don't care, at least it was a little realistic and at least it has had a finish. You did a great job Tmth and I cannot question your actions but even so, I feel that the Election should have been a little bit closer...
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #898 on: March 29, 2014, 02:18:56 PM »

OOC: Both Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were massively visited by Obama and Hillary during this campaign trail. Having just one of them going for us looks pretty strange but we will concede anyway... I feel like Jimmy Carter...

Congrats for Jerry, but especially to Lumine that basically carried the Republican Campaign in the end...
And you don't think Ayotte/Christie campaigned there? I don't think it's strange at all, especially considering all three have a slight Republican tilt in an even election. Obama disappeared from the trail multiple times - being an incumbent who is being perceived as a week later is practically "DOA" in American politics. Both campaigns were primarily pushed by the VP candidate, but Ayotte put in a bit more effort than Obama, and that was enough to give them the win.

For God's Sake! How could I know that Clinton1996 would leave the Campaign Trail without even telling me! I had things in real life to so it checked this board periodically and usually Obama tends to post in the end of all them.

Bah, anyway, I might say that I'm very proud of myself because otherwise we would have a 300+ Unrealistic Win for Ayotte. You may be angry at me because I've been moaning all along this game but I really don't care, at least it was a little realistic and at least it has had a finish. You did a great job Tmth and I cannot question your actions but even so, I feel that the Election should have been a little bit closer...
...if it was a little closer, you would have won. The only state that I can see being flipped is Maine's at-large votes. Furthermore, the game shouldn't be stopped because you can't find a running mate. This has been in the making for over a year, and we had to press forward. And to be honest, this win was pretty good for Ayotte. Despite flaws in your own campaign, I don't see how a ticket made up of two candidates with five years experience combined could have won a landslide over the sitting President.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #899 on: March 29, 2014, 02:26:25 PM »

While a candidate's experience certainly plays a factor, it probably doesn't play to the level it would in this type of game because I want to reward activity as much as possible. Plus, it was barely hit on by the other sides in the campaign - we could have seen a different result had Ayotte's inexperience been a central issue of the campaign.

I know it sucks for you that Clinton1996 disappeared, but I can't let that factor into the results. You did very well, and Clinton may be set up nicely for a challenge in 2016. I don't know how this election could have been much closer outside of a 2000-type election. Every week I had a "final results" map - Ayotte did not lead that until a week before the election, and Virginia was back and forth the whole time. Had that flipped and if Maine changes in the recount, Obama would have won.

I'm currently working on Senate results.
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