AR Congressional Races 2014

[windjammer]

http://www.upi.com/blog/2013/05/23/Tom-Cotton-would-punish-family-members-of-sanctions-violators/8361369336333/

A little crazy?

[Miles]

http://www.upi.com/blog/2013/05/23/Tom-Cotton-would-punish-family-members-of-sanctions-violators/8361369336333/

A little crazy?

He'll make such a fine Senator...

[RogueBeaver]

Bloomberg's ad flopped big time. Should've stuck to asking Pryor why he changed since '02/'04.

[JerryArkansas]

I heard some rumors from a close friend of Crawford saying he may run for governor. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bloomberg's ad flopped big time. Should've stuck to asking Pryor why he changed since '02/'04.

I'm for gun control, but I imagine if you are running for elected office in Arkansas, it helps to have gun control ads running against you.

[RogueBeaver]

MAIG wants Pryor's scalp, while Roll Call has a decent overview of the race. Really need PPP taking a look here. My guess is a mid-40s tie.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MAIG wants Pryor's scalp, while Roll Call has a decent overview of the race. Really need PPP taking a look here. My guess is a mid-40s tie.

I wonder if Bloomberg is running these ads to help Pryor?  I can't imagine he really thinks this hurts Pryor in Arkansas. 

[RogueBeaver]

Pub pressure on Cotton is ramping up. Politico discusses the role of black voters for the SoDem troika, including Pryor.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor's going up with a 30k buy, presumably to counter the outside groups.

[RogueBeaver]

Pressure on Crawford from the right, but no primary challenger so far. Meanwhile Cotton says he's still thinking about Senate and has no timetable, nothing new there.

Here's the Pryor ad, defending his gun vote.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor doubles down on his support of Dodd-Frank, Obamacare and amnesty, says GOP is being unfair for pointing out his AWB vote in '04.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton introduces a bill to eliminate 3 DC Circuit judgeships... local pundits see this as another signal of intent.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor wants a local race, probably won't get one.

[ElectionsGuy]

H/T Miles for encouraging me to borrow his LA/NC thread.

The big enchilada is the Senate race, where either Tom Cotton or Steve Womack, more likely Cotton, are expected to run against Mark Pryor. Either the 3rd or 4th would open up, and the 4th already has a few names interested on both sides should it become vacant.

First post from legendary journo Max Brantley explaining why Pryor's stuck between a rock and a hard place on guns.

Steve Womack's district, if he runs, will be held by republicans guaranteed, and if Tom Cotton wins, the only way democrats will win is if they get a blue dog or the republican just sucks. Romney won the 4th district with 62%, and I don't think it's going anywhere. Since 08, Arkansas has become a rock solid republican state.

[RogueBeaver]

AP profiles the race.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a Lincoln interview where Pryor's race comes up. She only hints at the key issue: center being a position of weakness rather than strength, just like it was for her. Rural Dems flipping and progressive enthusiasm flatlining.

[freepcrusher]

the key for Pryor is to be at 50 percent in both hypothetical matchups and in approval rating.

[RogueBeaver]

Last poll had approval at 42/35/23. No matchup polls have been done yet, but I'd suspect a mid-40s tie right now.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor gets praise from the Southern Baptist Convention for his help on their health plan, but a double-edged sword since that's tied up with Obamacare.

Medexpansion might also be on the ballot. Posted that here because Pryor's using it as a crutch for his Obamacare vote, something even liberal columnists have called him on.

[RogueBeaver]

Bloomberg urging NY donors to drop anti-MT red state Dems. Pryor's raised a couple of million from NY over the years, but he's still loaded regardless if those funds disappear.

[RogueBeaver]

St. Rep. Andy Mayberry (R) says he's seriously thinking about running for LG, one of many Pubs thinking about it. No formalization till Darr announces for the 4th, which needs a vacancy yet to be announced...

[RogueBeaver]

Former Senate Minority Whip Bobby Sheridan (D) says he's thinking about running for the nearly open 4th and will make a decision by September.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton was the only delegation member to vote against the farm bill, citing the food stamp expansion as his reason.

[RogueBeaver]

GOP quasi-internal shows Cotton 41, Pryor 40. Take it with a grain of salt, but they also caught Lugar's troubles early last cycle. He's fundraising with national hawkish Pubs like Senor and the Adelsons, meanwhile Reid's SuperPAC is hitting him on the airwaves. Isn't hopscotch, just generic Mediscare and "national, not local." Meanwhile Pryor's voting for the immigration bill, Cotton's staunchly opposed.

[windjammer]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/305527-nra-has-pryors-back-for-now


Finally, his gun vote can save him!