AR Congressional Races 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Pulling my nonendorsement. This looks competitive again.

It always was.

[DrScholl]

Pryor probably wins this 52-47, barring a change in climate or a misstep. Cotton asking for five debates means that Republican internals must have him down as well.

[moderatevoter]

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101021_alrpolling.html

This firm's polling of LASen in 2010.

While I do think, as I've said before, that Pryor is not a push-over or Blanche Lincoln 2.0, there are legitimate questions about the credibility of some of these polling sources.

[RogueBeaver]

With such little polling, most of it crappy, hard to tell what's going on. Or to put it another way: TB now finds as many undecided as PPP did in December. Even in 2010 a lot was the Research 2000 fraudsters and Ras.

MAAV: I'm talking about TB, not Dem stuff.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton raises $1.35 million in Q1.

[IceSpear]

Man, some of you people are so fickle. Last week Pryor was going to lose by a bigger margin than Blanche Lincoln, and this week he's the clear favorite to win?

[free my dawg]

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101021_alrpolling.html

This firm's polling of LASen in 2010.

While I do think, as I've said before, that Pryor is not a push-over or Blanche Lincoln 2.0, there are legitimate questions about the credibility of some of these polling sources.

And here's the other firm they merged with's 2012 polls. All of them within the MOE, and at most off by 3.

Anzalone-Liszt was less accurate for Carmona's internals themselves (just like they were for Melancon's), but for DSCC internals they were actually okay.

A rare internal I can get behind.

[Miles]

Why Pryor is no Lincoln.

On the flip side, WaPo has Landrieu displacing Pryor as the most vulnerable incumbent.

[windjammer]

This race is interesting!

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor raised $1.22 million and has $4.7 million COH. Cotton has $2.7 million COH.

[Miles]

538 looks at the accuracy of partisan polls since 2002, vis–à–vis this race in particular. The polls average 4 points towards their side.

Also of note:

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[Miles]

Witt raises $269K in CD4.

Only $115K for Moll.

[publicunofficial]

According to Jason Tolbert of Talk Business, American Crossroads did a poll recently in order to quell the Pryormentum talk.


The best they could come up with was a tie, 39-39, with a 4.29 margin of error.

[windjammer]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

[Keystone Phil]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

Ok.

[windjammer]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

Ok.

Is it so difficult to elaborate a longer answer?

[Keystone Phil]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

Ok.

Is it so difficult to elaborate a longer answer?

No. It just wasn't necessary for one.

[windjammer]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

Ok.

Is it so difficult to elaborate a longer answer?

No. It just wasn't necessary for one.

Fine, I'm glad to see you have nothing to say to contradict me.

[Keystone Phil]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

Ok.

Is it so difficult to elaborate a longer answer?

No. It just wasn't necessary for one.

Fine, I'm glad to see you have nothing to say to contradict me.

November 4th will take care of that.

[windjammer]

Crazy Cotton, you will lose votes because of your hard stance, Arkansas isn't a fiscal conservative state (see polls about minimum wage, farm bill's popularity). You're definitely a bad candidate for the GOP, someone like Griffin would have been much better. If you win, you can thank Obama, not your political skills.

Ok.

Is it so difficult to elaborate a longer answer?

No. It just wasn't necessary for one.

Fine, I'm glad to see you have nothing to say to contradict me.

November 4th will take care of that.

I have not said Pryor will win. I have said this race will stay competitive because of Cotton's hard stances on farm bill, medicare,... and that someone like Griffin would have been much better.

But yes, you're right, November 4th will definitely say if Pryor is going Blanche or not.

[RogueBeaver]

As I said, I haven't heard reasons which Dems weren't using 2 months ago or even last fall. A tie (PPP-Dec) to Pryor +3 in the grand total of 4 nonpartisan polls we've had since the race began.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last Rasmussen polls had Hagen, Begich and Pryor down about 3-5 points. Those races are anyone's game.

[RogueBeaver]

The last high-profile Senate debate was 1972's runoff between McClellan and David Pryor. McClellan pwned Pryor on his labor ties and won by 4. Only race David Pryor ever lost.

[smoltchanov]

The last high-profile Senate debate was 1972's runoff between McClellan and David Pryor. McClellan pwned Pryor on his labor ties and won by 4. Only race David Pryor ever lost.

You don't find McClellan-type Democrats in present-day Democratic party. Even in Arkansas, where relatively conservative Democrats held longer then in other states

[Miles]

A very good new ad from Cotton.