European Alliances if the South had won the Civil War
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  European Alliances if the South had won the Civil War
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Author Topic: European Alliances if the South had won the Civil War  (Read 2578 times)
Peter the Lefty
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« on: May 30, 2013, 04:31:11 PM »

      Sadly, as we all know, the British and French governments were quite pro-Confederate during the war (even though the British people largely favored the Union.) Any thoughts from someone who knows more about 19th-Century European history than I do care to offer a scenario for how the alliances would've been built?  I had a few ideas, but I don't know much about their feasibility. 
      The UK and France quickly establish good relations with the CSA.  The US becomes desperate for Allies in Europe, and turns to the Russians.  After the Austro-Prussian war, we also push for good relations with Prussia and Italy, while Austria joins the Confederate-British-French alliance.  Yet we also begin to (cautiously) flirt with the British, and once the right to vote in Britain is extended to workingmen, the government realizes it can no longer remain so close to a nation based on slavery, and they begin to gravitate towards the US.–Prussian/German–Russian–Italian bloc. 
      Feel free to critique this all you want.  I'm taking AP Euro History next year, but right now this is all guesses based on what little I've read.  If this is a feasible hypothesis, however, any ideas on how the Ottomans would fall into this?
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2013, 04:42:18 PM »

The only historian I have heard make educated guessing on this topic (cant remember his name)  went no further than a basic CSA/Britain vs. US/Prussia and later German Empire scenario. France after 1871 is a republic and is unlikely to support CSA.
North America being sucked into the British-German naval and overseas rivalry is the most likely.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2013, 05:00:51 PM »

Interesting.  I always had heard that the French were more lividly pro-South, and the British were shakier since public opinion in the UK was so strongly against slavery.  I suppose I should've worded it differently: I was more just trying to make sure I wasn't completely off rather than to make an educated guess.  I'm working on the elementary stages of a Southern victory TL.  Thanks. 
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2013, 09:29:46 PM »

Britain going any further than granting the Confederacy recognition as an independent nation instead of as a belligerent power was never in the offing.  France choosing to intervene militarily was possible, and would likely have been needed to have the South win.  So the initial situation post war would likely be a Franco-Confederate Entente and a Prusso-Yankee Alliance with Britain using its Machiavellian fu to arrange events to its own advantage without being a part of either axis.

So the most pressing domino for such a timeline is does the Franco-Prussian war remain just a bilateral war or does it turn into a World War four decades early?
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2013, 02:47:26 PM »

Perhaps if we (the US) were courting both the Germans and the Russians, Bismarck wouldn't have felt as threatened by Russia and may have signed pacts with them uniting the two against Austria, which they would've had difficulty allying with anyhow if they wanted the Italians on board.  Plus, he may also have had a desire to make himself ruler of "all of Germany."  As this is shaping up:

Side 1:
Confederate States of America
Britain
France
Austria

Side 2:
United States of America
Germany/Prussia
Italy
Russia
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2013, 03:23:44 PM »

It all depends on how long the CSA kept it slaves. If it still has them by the early 1900's then it's unlikely to be held in high regard by European nations. The CSA would probably be as isolationist as the USA was until the Great War.
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politicus
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2013, 03:24:30 PM »

Britain going any further than granting the Confederacy recognition as an independent nation instead of as a belligerent power was never in the offing.  France choosing to intervene militarily was possible, and would likely have been needed to have the South win.  So the initial situation post war would likely be a Franco-Confederate Entente and a Prusso-Yankee Alliance with Britain using its Machiavellian fu to arrange events to its own advantage without being a part of either axis.

So the most pressing domino for such a timeline is does the Franco-Prussian war remain just a bilateral war or does it turn into a World War four decades early?

Not necessarily true if the Trent affair had gone slightly different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trent_Affair

After the war a British alliance with CSA would have been a possibility. 
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2013, 04:15:24 PM »

Britain going any further than granting the Confederacy recognition as an independent nation instead of as a belligerent power was never in the offing.  France choosing to intervene militarily was possible, and would likely have been needed to have the South win.  So the initial situation post war would likely be a Franco-Confederate Entente and a Prusso-Yankee Alliance with Britain using its Machiavellian fu to arrange events to its own advantage without being a part of either axis.

So the most pressing domino for such a timeline is does the Franco-Prussian war remain just a bilateral war or does it turn into a World War four decades early?

Not necessarily true if the Trent affair had gone slightly different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trent_Affair

After the war a British alliance with CSA would have been a possibility. 

Not really.  Fighting alongside the French in the Crimean War did not lead to a alliance with them afterwards.  While the CSA would have welcomed such an alliance, I do not see Britain wanting to enter into one even if Britain had fought a war with the Yankees over the Trent affair.  They'd be leery of becoming a dog wagged by a Confederate tail.
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