No Vietnam--How is LBJ considered in history?

[DevotedDemocrat]

If Vietnam never moved beyond a commitment of aid and military advisers, and the South fell to Communism sometime during the 1960s, what would LBJ's legacy be? Would he be ranked up there with the greatest of the greats if Vietnam had not been escalated? Or would he still have fallen short legacy wise because he wasn't a handsome, charismatic guy named John Kennedy?

Johnson wouldn't have run for a second term even if not for Vietnam; He was giving people permanent appointments as early as 1965 because he didn't expect to be in office in 1973. More than anything else, he dropped out because he really didn't think he could survive a second term, and he felt there was historical precedent for Presidents who won their own term after their predecessor died not to seek a third term (Truman, for example).

[Dr. Cynic]

He'd probably be remembered as one of our greatest Presidents, but also as a cruel and even by political standards, disingenuous one.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Assuming he runs in 1968, he can probabily win a fairly good plurality. However, he nonetheless sees domestic trouble in his second (1965-1969) term due to racial tensions and the issue of open housing. This makes '68 much narrower (already narrower by merit of not being 1964), though I think Johnson can pull it off in that environment. Who knows how he handles Nixon's OTL first term though. I'd guess that, facing recession and Democratic fatigue, as well as being aided by a new Southern Strategy, the GOP is back in '72.

[DevotedDemocrat]

Assuming he runs in 1968, he can probabily win a fairly good plurality. However, he nonetheless sees domestic trouble in his second (1965-1969) term due to racial tensions and the issue of open housing. This makes '68 much narrower (already narrower by merit of not being 1964), though I think Johnson can pull it off in that environment. Who knows how he handles Nixon's OTL first term though. I'd guess that, facing recession and Democratic fatigue, as well as being aided by a new Southern Strategy, the GOP is back in '72.

I think he could've won in '68 even with Vietnam. Look at how close it was with Humphrey. Johnson knew how to win and may have been able to bring peace in the fall of 1968. It would've been a peace similar to what we ended up getting in 1973, but at least would've been 5 years earlier.

But he decided pretty early that he didn't want to run in 1968, long before Vietnam became an issue--possibly as early as 1965 and definitely by 1967. He truly believed he would die by age 64--which he did. He actually had to be pushed by his family and those close to him to run in 1964 as it was. He had a whole speech denying his nomination in 1964 written out.