Can we ever have an economy as strong and as prosperous as the post WWII boom?

[DevotedDemocrat]

The post war boom after WWII continued for almost 30 years with very minor, brief interruptions and was probably one of the most economically prosperous and strong periods in our history, and it could be argued that the time period from around 1945 to 1973 was the height of the middle class. How could such an amazing prosperity ever be attained again, without a World War and a burnt out Europe?

[MaxQue]

Certainly not by continuing to pass policies which are contributing to accumulate wealth and prosperity in the pockets of only a few, which don't use it.

[Blue3]

Wasn't there a severe recession at the end of World War II, once the huge budget deficits from military spending was greatly cut?

But part of the reason for the boom that followed is because just about every other major economy in the world was ruined.

[Likely Voter]

Yes...yes, after a war devastates the other major industrial powers but leaves us unharmed and with a newly revitalized manufacturing infrastructure. 

[RogueBeaver]

Yes...yes, after a war devastates the other major industrial powers but leaves us unharmed and with a newly revitalized manufacturing infrastructure. 

[DC Al Fine]

Yes...yes, after a war devastates the other major industrial powers but leaves us unharmed and with a newly revitalized manufacturing infrastructure. 

Also wages will raise just like after WW2 when we create massive new demand for labour after killing off half the working age men.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The boom after WWII was mostly allowed by America being both the prominent consumer and producer in the western world.  It was supported by cheap, seemingly endless supplies of energy.

The real economic miracle was probably from 1959-1966 or so.  That would be the core of the real economic growth.  It's interesting that as the first baby boomers turned 18 in 1965... inflation shot up.  And then stayed high until the last baby boomers turned 18 in 1982. (1947 being the first significant boom year and the birth rate having returned to pre-boom levels rather suddenly in 1965)

The bad inflation in the 70s and early 80s were both related to oil shocks.

We'd like to think "policy" beat inflation and "policy" got us into it... but I think it's more organic than that.

The same demographic trend that lead to high inflation has led to 20 years of deflation in Japan.  Except because of human psychology, deflation never occurs as fast as it would need to in order to stabilize things.  Instead, the economy wants to deflate.... but because businesses are extremely reluctant to cut nominal wages, it just sends unemployment up instead which itself drives even more deflation.

Definitely watch Japan in the next year or so.  They just announced a historic change in strategy.. and are set to print enough money to achieve 3% inflation by 2014 (at least according to the IMF).  We'll see if monetary policy theory is right or if we're basically just along for the ride.

In any case, the exploitation of shale gas and oil in the U.S. could make us a pretty big net exporter... which will definitely have an impact on the U.S. since it will lower oil prices here compared to elsewhere.

Right now, for example, inadequate refining capacity has meant that oil is building up in huge quantities in Oklahoma and Texas, which has lowered the price of American crude relative to the global market.  Bad for the oil boom... should, in theory, be great for the economy.

This is why I don't see economic peril any time soon.  The fundamentals of the American economy, if not strong, are definitely improving.  Many companies, citing cheaper energy costs, are moving manufacturing back to the states.  And those facilities are ultra high tech and efficient... because labor is still expensive here, so they invest in tech to reduce the labor costs.

Apple, for example, will be making their Mac Minis in the U.S. fairly soon... and the factory will probably resemble a very clean, shiny ghost town.  If we redistribute the money fairly (through government intervention), then that *should* free up people to pursue other, new things.. instead of bolting sh**t together for a living.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Incidentally, one of the most beneficial post WWII policies was the GI Bill.  Its education benefits provided a trifecta of desirable effects.  First, it helped ensure that returning veterans would have the education needed for a good job.  Second, it produced demand for educators and educational facilities, giving stimulus to the construction industry. Thirdly and most importantly, it helped keep there from being a flood of just released draftees in the job market by diverting many of them into schools instead of the work force.  And all that's not even considering the effects of the low cost mortgages and small business loans for veterans also included in the bill.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With our leaders, of course not.

[King]

Incidentally, one of the most beneficial post WWII policies was the GI Bill.  Its education benefits provided a trifecta of desirable effects.  First, it helped ensure that returning veterans would have the education needed for a good job.  Second, it produced demand for educators and educational facilities, giving stimulus to the construction industry. Thirdly and most importantly, it helped keep there from being a flood of just released draftees in the job market by diverting many of them into schools instead of the work force.  And all that's not even considering the effects of the low cost mortgages and small business loans for veterans also included in the bill.

Yes.  We could see another boom if we did something like this but for everyone.  One drawback of a volunteer army is that a lot of qualified people miss out on these benefits now.

We need to get as many people in school, keep them there as long as possible, and give them access to capital once they get out--since the banks are too terrible to do it themselves.

[Blue3]

Incidentally, one of the most beneficial post WWII policies was the GI Bill.  Its education benefits provided a trifecta of desirable effects.  First, it helped ensure that returning veterans would have the education needed for a good job.  Second, it produced demand for educators and educational facilities, giving stimulus to the construction industry. Thirdly and most importantly, it helped keep there from being a flood of just released draftees in the job market by diverting many of them into schools instead of the work force.  And all that's not even considering the effects of the low cost mortgages and small business loans for veterans also included in the bill.

Yes.  We could see another boom if we did something like this but for everyone.  One drawback of a volunteer army is that a lot of qualified people miss out on these benefits now.

We need to get as many people in school, keep them there as long as possible, and give them access to capital once they get out--since the banks are too terrible to do it themselves.

AmeriCorps and the PeaceCorps could do the job too... but they both seem very selective. Should perhaps become more universal.

[Benj]

Incidentally, one of the most beneficial post WWII policies was the GI Bill.  Its education benefits provided a trifecta of desirable effects.  First, it helped ensure that returning veterans would have the education needed for a good job.  Second, it produced demand for educators and educational facilities, giving stimulus to the construction industry. Thirdly and most importantly, it helped keep there from being a flood of just released draftees in the job market by diverting many of them into schools instead of the work force.  And all that's not even considering the effects of the low cost mortgages and small business loans for veterans also included in the bill.

Yes.  We could see another boom if we did something like this but for everyone.  One drawback of a volunteer army is that a lot of qualified people miss out on these benefits now.

We need to get as many people in school, keep them there as long as possible, and give them access to capital once they get out--since the banks are too terrible to do it themselves.

AmeriCorps and the PeaceCorps could do the job too... but they both seem very selective. Should perhaps become more universal.

They're also designed as post-college experiences (along with other organizations like Teach for America). They may achieve a great deal for the targeted populations, but if anything they exacerbate the difference between those who have the financial/social means to attend college and those who don't because only those who attend college will ever work in the Peace Corps/TFA/etc. and reap the attendant long-term benefits (which are mostly prestige and important social connections rather than concrete financial incentives, of course).

[memphis]

You need to quantify how you measure a "strong economy." Things are great right now for owners. We don't all live in the same economy.

[pbrower2a]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

[DC Al Fine]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Certainly not by continuing to pass policies which are contributing to accumulate wealth and prosperity in the pockets of only a few, which don't use it.

[krazen1211]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

#2 already applies to every person given the privilege of being born in the United States.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

#2 already applies to every person given the privilege of being born in the United States.

Huh. I didn't know you were one of those "americans are already rich man! we don't need billionaires man! poor americans are the 1%, man!" people.

[King]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

#2 already applies to every person given the privilege of being born in the United States.

Huh. I didn't know you were one of those "americans are already rich man! we don't need billionaires man! poor americans are the 1%, man!" people.

Yes, but instead of "man" he refers to others as "teacher-lovers."

[pbrower2a]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

The professions?

Most of the attorneys are in Category 4.

Medicine pays well -- but it takes years of costly education.
Engineering? Short careers. When a tech can do one's job, one had better prepare for something else.

Politics? One can make big money -- if one is a crook.

Owning or operating a small business? You had better operate in a market that the Big Boys don't want to be in.  

Sales? If you can develop the connections early you will do well. Otherwise you do hourly retail.

Skilled trades? Police work? Nursing? OK, I suppose.

For most people, happiness depends upon keeping expectations and demands as close to bare survival as possible. America is becoming an aristocratic society with pathological bureaucracy  right under our noses.  

Don't bring up "marry into money" or "win the Super Duper Megabucks Lottery".

[krazen1211]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

The professions?

Most of the attorneys are in Category 4.

Medicine pays well -- but it takes years of costly education.
Engineering? Short careers. When a tech can do one's job, one had better prepare for something else.

Politics? One can make big money -- if one is a crook.

Owning or operating a small business? You had better operate in a market that the Big Boys don't want to be in.  

Sales? If you can develop the connections early you will do well. Otherwise you do hourly retail.

Skilled trades? Police work? Nursing? OK, I suppose.

For most people, happiness depends upon keeping expectations and demands as close to bare survival as possible. America is becoming an aristocratic society with pathological bureaucracy  right under our noses.  

Don't bring up "marry into money" or "win the Super Duper Megabucks Lottery".

If you're out of ideas you can consider birthing lots of children out of wedlock.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Golden Age of Capitalism is not coming back, as unfortunate as that fact obviously is.

[opebo]

We can't, but not for any 'economic' reason.

[pbrower2a]

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

You forgot about every single financially successful person who makes <$1m/yr

The professions?

Most of the attorneys are in Category 4.

Medicine pays well -- but it takes years of costly education.
Engineering? Short careers. When a tech can do one's job, one had better prepare for something else.

Politics? One can make big money -- if one is a crook.

Owning or operating a small business? You had better operate in a market that the Big Boys don't want to be in.  

Sales? If you can develop the connections early you will do well. Otherwise you do hourly retail.

Skilled trades? Police work? Nursing? OK, I suppose.

For most people, happiness depends upon keeping expectations and demands as close to bare survival as possible. America is becoming an aristocratic society with pathological bureaucracy  right under our noses.  

Don't bring up "marry into money" or "win the Super Duper Megabucks Lottery".

If you're out of ideas you can consider birthing lots of children out of wedlock.

Bigot!

[The Mikado]

Of course not, mainly because the post-war boom (interrupted in 1958 and in the early 1970s even before its end) was the anomaly, not the present.

There can still be major economic upswings, like the 1990s or 2002-2006, but the boom-bust cycle is back to stay.