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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?
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Poll
Question: Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?
J. Bush   -6 (8.8%)
Carson   -0 (0%)
Christie   -21 (30.9%)
Cruz   -0 (0%)
Jindal   -1 (1.5%)
Martinez   -0 (0%)
McDonnell   -0 (0%)
Rand Paul   -8 (11.8%)
Pence   -1 (1.5%)
Perry   -0 (0%)
Rubio   -25 (36.8%)
Ryan   -2 (2.9%)
Santorum   -1 (1.5%)
Thune   -1 (1.5%)
Walker   -2 (2.9%)
NOTA   -0 (0%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?  (Read 2642 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 21, 2013, 02:30:52 am »

?

Time to do this again.
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2013, 02:32:11 am »
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?

Time to do this again.


Jeb Bush if he runs.

If not, probably Rubio or Christie, possibly Portman or Huntsman.
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2013, 04:41:47 am »
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Paul Ryan
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2013, 05:12:03 am »
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I think either Christie or Paul. I think Christie will be the establishment choice after Rubio ends up being a flop (which I think he will). Paul will be the conservative grassroots choice. I have a difficult time, at this point at least, seeing the nominee being someone else.
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2013, 05:32:10 am »
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The probable results of the initial primaries and caucuses should be looked at:

Iowa-Paul or Santorum
New Hampshire- Bush (if running), Christie or Huntsman
South Carolina-Bush (if running), Rubio or Paul
Florida-Bush (if running), Rubio
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2013, 08:14:51 am »

Ftr, I voted Rubio in this poll, though obviously he's not the strongest frontrunner in the world and it's very early.  Christie and Paul also in the mix, though of course they're both very flawed candidates as well.

The sleeper of the moment (and now probably up to #4 in likelihood of winning the nomination in my book) is Scott Walker.  Definitely looking stronger in recent weeks/months, if only because the other potential candidates are looking a bit less impressive.  And Walker's recent travel schedule strongly suggests that he intends to run as long as Paul Ryan doesn't.
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2013, 08:29:53 am »
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I voted Rubio in the last poll, but his star is rapidly fading. His immigration push hasn't been good for him - not, as many pundits claim, because he's losing conservative credibility, but because he's losing his (undeserved) reputation for being a skilled and effective politician.

Went with Christie this time, although I suspect that we'd all be talking about Walker were we not preoccupied with Ryan (whose putative candidacy is, in my view, a red herring).
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2013, 09:04:48 am »
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Christie. The conservative wing is too crowded right now, but I expect that to sort itself out. The primary will be carnage.
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2013, 11:36:50 am »
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Rubio or Christie.
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2013, 11:40:42 am »
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Christie
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2013, 11:54:19 am »
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Jeb Bush.  Social conservatives may be wary of Christie, and Bush would be more electable than Rubio.
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2013, 12:38:01 pm »
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Rubio, Paul, and Christie, in that order.
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2013, 12:47:21 pm »
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I'm rather sure it'll be Christie. The thing is, the GOP would be ridiculous not to choose him. So that means they probably won't.

Also, I do still see a path for my girl. It's narrow, but it's there.
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2013, 01:02:00 pm »
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Depends which righties run, but for now Rubio, Christie ... ... Paul. Though I'm hoping none of the above.
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2013, 01:06:00 pm »
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Rubio
Walker
Paul
Christie
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Goldwater
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2013, 01:19:22 pm »
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I don't see why everybody thinks Jeb is so electable, considering how hated his brother is.

Anyway, I think it will be Christie or Rubio.
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2013, 02:02:04 pm »
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Christie.

It's likelier that he'll run than that Rubio will run. Rubio may back Jeb.

And he has less competition among the more moderate primary voters that supported Romney in 2012, and McCain in 2000 and 2008.

Rand Paul's views are likely to divide primary voters. He has a shot, but I would rate him below Christie, Rubio and Ryan.
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« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2013, 03:20:25 pm »
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Christie. The conservative wing is too crowded right now, but I expect that to sort itself out. The primary will be carnage.

Indeed. But fascinating and extremely fun to watch. Hopefully they'll be a decent Intrade replacement up somewhere by then.
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« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2013, 03:28:16 pm »
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I think Christie still has the best shot, but his chances have lessened in recent months. Once he's been re-elected and can start focusing on a Presidential run, I expect him to shift to the right a bit in an effort to appease conservatives, and thus, will end up in a similar position to where Romney was in 2011, though he'll face stronger opposition than Romney did.
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« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2013, 03:30:15 pm »
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1. Christie
2. Rubio
3. Bush
4. Martinez/Paul
5. Other...
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« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2013, 03:50:09 pm »
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Rubio.
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Miles
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« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2013, 03:52:15 pm »
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Even though there's lots of hate for him on the far-right, I went with Christie.
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Blue3
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« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2013, 04:06:30 pm »
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How does Christie even have a chance anymore?
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2013, 05:01:39 pm »
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The vote split will help Christie rise to the top of a crowded field. By the time the momentum builds for one alternative, he'll have a huge lead and be unstoppable. He'll likely be forced to pick a right-wing VP, but he's the easy favorite.
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2013, 07:20:30 pm »
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Too early to say. Gut feel says that Christie is too unpopular with the Right to win, but if the invisible primary doesn't take it toll, he may be hard to stop.
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