NC-PPP: McCrory still popular, Assembly not

[Miles]

Report.

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Its been in this ballpark for the past few months.

McCrory is really buoyed by his approval in the 704/980 area code region (Charlotte), which is 58/34. His approval in 336, consisting of the Triad, central Piedmont and northwest, is even higher at 57/29, though thats pretty Republican turf anyway. He's actually on slightly negative territory with those in the Raleigh area, 41/44.

The Assembly Republicans are at 34/53, which is why Tillis would fare poorly against Hagan.

The Democrats lead 45/41 on the generic ballot, but obviously thats not nearly enough to take back either chamber.

Its also nice to see that the Republicans' voter suppression efforts aren't popular. They've gone after early voting, though a strong majority of voters think the number of days should not be reduced:

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I wish PPP had asked about the independent redistricting bill, though I'm sure it would have been popular anyway.

[windjammer]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

[Benj]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

~8 points, but it's hard to say for certain. A lot of people say they prefer one party but then vote for their incumbent of the other party.

[Miles]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

~8 points, but it's hard to say for certain. A lot of people say they prefer one party but then vote for their incumbent of the other party.

Democrats were leading by a similar 45/43 edge going into November 2012 and still ended up with just 35% of the total Assembly seats.

Their lead is going to have to be at least 10-11 points before they can seriously contest either chamber. Thats how brutal the maps are.

[windjammer]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

~8 points, but it's hard to say for certain. A lot of people say they prefer one party but then vote for their incumbent of the other party.

Democrats were leading by a similar 45/43 edge going into November 2012 and still ended up with just 35% of the total Assembly seats.

Their lead is going to have to be at least 10-11 points before they can seriously contest either chamber. Thats how brutal the maps are.

And in ten years, always 10-11 points or republican districts will become more democratic?

[Miles]

And in ten years, always 10-11 points or republican districts will become more democratic?

No, but for the next few cycles, that should hold. Some of the suburban will start to crack after, especially in the House.

For example, my state Rep. is a conservative Republican freshman. He was elected 51/49 last fall and almost every precinct in his district is trending D.

[Miles]

Nate Silver ranks McCrory as one of the most conservative Governors in the country, even more so than his role model, Bobby Jindal:

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[Maxwell]

I'm not quite sure Bob McDonnell is more conservative than Rick Perry. What is his scale?

[badgate]

Terrifying that anybody would call Bobby Jindal their role model. What manner of man it must take to announce such a thing...

[Miles]

I'm not quite sure Bob McDonnell is more conservative than Rick Perry. What is his scale?

Here is the original article from 538.

[Zioneer]

Wait, so Herbert is the 6th most liberal GOP governor? That is hilarious, as it implies the legislature that pulls his strings (he's considered a puppet of the Utah state legislature) is more liberal than other GOP-controlled legislatures.

[Nichlemn]

I'm not quite sure Bob McDonnell is more conservative than Rick Perry. What is his scale?

Here is the original article from 538.

Interesting how Dalrymple has the second-most conservative fund-raising, but the most liberal public issue statements.

[Nichlemn]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

~8 points, but it's hard to say for certain. A lot of people say they prefer one party but then vote for their incumbent of the other party.

Democrats were leading by a similar 45/43 edge going into November 2012 and still ended up with just 35% of the total Assembly seats.

Their lead is going to have to be at least 10-11 points before they can seriously contest either chamber. Thats how brutal the maps are.

But how did they do in the actual popular vote?

[bballrox4717]

I'm curious, what's the appeal of McCrory that makes him more popular than most NC Republicans? I don't know of him too well.

[Miles]

I'm curious, what's the appeal of McCrory that makes him more popular than most NC Republicans? I don't know of him too well.

He was mayor of Charlotte for 14 years. Most just came to know his as 'Mayor Pat.' He actually was a very good mayor; he presided over huge economic and population growth and was an strong advocate for mass transit.

He racked up huge margins in the Greater Charlotte area in both his Gubernatorial runs; Perdue was only able to offset in 2008 because she overperformed along the eastern coast.

My family lives in south Charlotte...my precinct voted 60/38 for Romney but 77/22 for McCrory.

[krazen1211]

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To retake a chamber, what would be the lead?

~8 points, but it's hard to say for certain. A lot of people say they prefer one party but then vote for their incumbent of the other party.

Democrats were leading by a similar 45/43 edge going into November 2012 and still ended up with just 35% of the total Assembly seats.

Their lead is going to have to be at least 10-11 points before they can seriously contest either chamber. Thats how brutal the maps are.

But how did they do in the actual popular vote?

http://www.wfae.org/post/pols-adept-picking-voters

If all of the state Senate votes for Democratic and Republican candidates were added up across the state, Democrats garnered 47 percent to Republican’s 53 percent.  But Republicans ended up with 66 percent of the seats to the Democrats’ 34 percent, creating a disproportionate advantage for the Republican party.

In the state House, a similar pattern emerged: Republican candidates garnered 51 percent of the total statewide vote, but won 64 percent of the seats in the chamber.




The GOP won both chambers.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Wait, so Herbert is the 6th most liberal GOP governor? That is hilarious, as it implies the legislature that pulls his strings (he's considered a puppet of the Utah state legislature) is more liberal than other GOP-controlled legislatures.

Utah is more Republican than it is conservative(though still conservative).  The legislature is fairly liberal in some respects.  Look at Huntsman
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/utah-very-republican-but-not-as-conservative-as-it-appears/?gwh=08735C16365753BFE74274C013A47AA9
:

[Maxwell]

Wait, so Herbert is the 6th most liberal GOP governor? That is hilarious, as it implies the legislature that pulls his strings (he's considered a puppet of the Utah state legislature) is more liberal than other GOP-controlled legislatures.

Utah is more Republican than it is conservative(though still conservative).  The legislature is fairly liberal in some respects.  Look at Huntsman
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/utah-very-republican-but-not-as-conservative-as-it-appears/?gwh=08735C16365753BFE74274C013A47AA9
:

A lot of those very very Republican states basically have wars between their conservative and moderate factions, and so it seems to me that Utah the moderates are winning more often. Same thing seems to happen in Wyoming, Idaho, and Nebraska.

[greenforest32]

Wait, so Herbert is the 6th most liberal GOP governor? That is hilarious, as it implies the legislature that pulls his strings (he's considered a puppet of the Utah state legislature) is more liberal than other GOP-controlled legislatures.

Utah is more Republican than it is conservative(though still conservative).  The legislature is fairly liberal in some respects.  Look at Huntsman
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/utah-very-republican-but-not-as-conservative-as-it-appears/?gwh=08735C16365753BFE74274C013A47AA9
:

A lot of those very very Republican states basically have wars between their conservative and moderate factions, and so it seems to me that Utah the moderates are winning more often. Same thing seems to happen in Wyoming, Idaho, and Nebraska.

I always wonder why that is. Just looking at the margins you'd think the legislatures in states like Utah and Rhode Island would be further to the right/left and yet...

[Maxwell]

Honestly, it may be that the more moderate wing of both Rhode Island and Utah Democratic/Republican parties would've actually been in the other party had they been in normal states, but decided that the only way to win election is run otherwise.

[Zioneer]

Wait, so Herbert is the 6th most liberal GOP governor? That is hilarious, as it implies the legislature that pulls his strings (he's considered a puppet of the Utah state legislature) is more liberal than other GOP-controlled legislatures.

Utah is more Republican than it is conservative(though still conservative).  The legislature is fairly liberal in some respects.  Look at Huntsman
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/utah-very-republican-but-not-as-conservative-as-it-appears/?gwh=08735C16365753BFE74274C013A47AA9
:

I can't read that article, NY Times says I've already read too many this month. What does it say?

[publicunofficial]

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[Zioneer]

Thanks for that, you may want to cut part of that off now to avoid copyright and etc issues. It's also against the forum rules, but thanks for having it for a little while at least.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There are some generalizations in that article that I differ with, but in general it is true that that the states out west have a more willingness to embrace a certain extent of populism on issues of regulation, health care (like in NE legislature) and other issues. Plus agriculture policy necessitates a certain amount of gov't and not just subsidies to big agra, but insurance for crops and water issues.