HI 2014 Congressional Elections

[IceSpear]

From the Civil Beat Senate poll that Tender posted, they also had a HI-01 poll.

Takai leads Kim 30-23, up from trailing her 30-24 in May.

Spectacular news! Too bad Hawaii polls are usually junk.

[Miles]

Takai and Kim are tied at 28% in the Star-Advertiser poll.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Takai and Kim are tied at 28% in the Star-Advertiser poll.

Looks like Takai has the momentum, but still lolHIpolls

[Vega]

I wish Stanley Chang was doing better. I don't see him winning this election, but he is very young and could run again. Really solid guy.

[cinyc]

Hurricane Iselle is on path to strike Hawaii on Thursday going into Friday, albeit as a weakened tropical storm.  That could be a real wildcard that could cause lower turnout in hardest-hit areas or even some blackouts, making Saturday's election more difficult to administer.

[Vega]

Hurricane Iselle is on path to strike Hawaii on Thursday going into Friday, albeit as a weakened tropical storm.  That could be a real wildcard that could cause lower turnout in hardest-hit areas or even some blackouts, making Saturday's election more difficult to administer.

Nah, from what I heard it won't effect it. Hawaii News Now had an article about how the Hurricane will miss most of Hawaii's main islands, but they took it down.

[cinyc]

Hurricane Iselle is on path to strike Hawaii on Thursday going into Friday, albeit as a weakened tropical storm.  That could be a real wildcard that could cause lower turnout in hardest-hit areas or even some blackouts, making Saturday's election more difficult to administer.

Nah, from what I heard it won't effect it. Hawaii News Now had an article about how the Hurricane will miss most of Hawaii's main islands, but they took it down.

The Big Island is smack in the middle of the National Hurricane Center's 5-day cone, albeit as a tropical storm, not a hurricane.  At a minimum, it still should bring a lot of rain to the islands.  Perhaps not damaging winds, though.

Hawaii News Now currently says Category 4 Hurricane Iselle maintains strength, path to Hawaii

[hurricanehink]

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26186931/hawaii-poll-hanabusa-up-over-schatz-in-senate-showdown

Latest poll from Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser Hawaii has Hanabusa up 50-42, but this article notes how Schatz has been ahead previously.

[Vega]

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26186931/hawaii-poll-hanabusa-up-over-schatz-in-senate-showdown

Latest poll from Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser Hawaii has Hanabusa up 50-42, but this article notes how Schatz has been ahead previously.

Although the Star Advertiser has been more accurate in polling than Civil Beat, I don't buy a almost 10 point reversal since last week or so.

[cinyc]

There's now a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the Big Island.  Hurricane Iselle is still on track to hit the Big Island on Thursday and possibly affect the other islands Thursday into Friday.  It is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm before hitting the Big Island.  The current track puts the center of landfall near Hilo.

[Vega]

http://westhawaiitoday.com/news/state-wire/coming-storm-likely-won-t-impact-hawaii-election

[cinyc]

In face of storms and a request to delay, primary election still on

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[Vega]

I feel like people are making this a bigger deal than it should be. But I guess you have to be prepared.

It won't effect the election all that much, and it won't effect it enough to call it off.

All the links and info you've been posting about it makes me think you really want the election to be called off though.

[cinyc]

I feel like people are making this a bigger deal than it should be. But I guess you have to be prepared.

It won't effect the election all that much, and it won't effect it enough to call it off.

All the links and info you've been posting about it makes me think you really want the election to be called off though.

Taking a direct hit from a hurricane is a big deal.  Hurricanes are not to be messed with.   We'll have to see how much it will affect the election.  My guess is things will be pretty bad on the Big Island Thursday and Friday and some polling places there might be consolidated if the election isn't postponed there altogether. 

The Big Island is now under a hurricane warning and Maui County (which includes Maui, Lanai and Molokai) is under a tropical storm warning.  Oahu (Honolulu) is under a tropical storm watch.

I don't care if the election is postponed.  I am posting about the storm because it could lead to lower turnout and/or a delay in some places.  And Abercrombie's electoral fortune could hinge on how well the state government handles the storm.

[Nhoj]

Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

[Vega]

Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

Not mostly, no. But they do have a very robust Early/Absentee voting system for both the General and the primaries. A fair number of people do use it. I never did when I lived in Hawaii.

[cinyc]

Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

Not mostly, no. But they do have a very robust Early/Absentee voting system for both the General and the primaries. A fair number of people do use it. I never did when I lived in Hawaii.

Almost 50% of the votes in the 2012 primaries were absentee/early.  As of July 29, 163,504 mail-in absentees were mailed out statewide. 

In-person early voting is open until tomorrow.

[Vega]

Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

Not mostly, no. But they do have a very robust Early/Absentee voting system for both the General and the primaries. A fair number of people do use it. I never did when I lived in Hawaii.

Almost 50% of the votes in the 2012 primaries were absentee/early.  As of July 29, 163,504 mail-in absentees were mailed out statewide. 

In-person early voting is open until tomorrow.

50% isn't most. It is quite a few, as I said, though. Understandable why people would want to in Hawaii.

Hawaii having it means that alot of people who might not vote do. Helps with the low voter turnout of the past years.

[cinyc]

50% isn't most. It is quite a few, as I said, though. Understandable why people would want to in Hawaii.

Hawaii having it means that alot of people who might not vote do. Helps with the low voter turnout of the past years.

I bet you that this will be the primary year when more voters vote absentee/early than on election day.  The trend is clear.  According to Hawaii News Now, "Early walk-in and mail-in voting before primary elections has steadily increased statewide in recent years, going from 37 percent in 2006 to 39 percent in 2008 and jumping to 44 percent in 2010 and going up further to 49 percent before the last primary in 2012."  I think I also read that  the number of mail-in absentees are already outpacing 2012.

The Big Island is extending early voting hours today.  Maui is closing most county offices early tomorrow, but early voting will go on as scheduled.  I haven't heard anything about Hawaii County's plans yet.

Oahu is now under a Tropical Storm warning.  Kauai and Niihau have been put under a Tropical Storm watch.  After trending southward in most recent iterations, the expected path veered a bit north in the 11PM Eastern notice, putting the storm center almost in the center of the Big Island and putting Maui and Oahu on the edge of the CPHC's cone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

[IceSpear]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Oddly enough, one of the recent Hawaii polls actually showed Schatz doing better among Republicans than Democrats/Independents. Of course, since Hawaii polls are pretty bad, taking any meaning out of crosstabs from them is even more bad.

[Vega]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Nah. They've had this system for a while. Possible Republicans voting hasn't effected elections in the past.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Nah. They've had this system for a while. Possible Republicans voting hasn't effected elections in the past.

Tradition is always susceptible to change.

[Vega]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Nah. They've had this system for a while. Possible Republicans voting hasn't effected elections in the past.

If Hanabusa or Kim win, then we know they've been voting.

Tradition is always susceptible to change.

[Progressive]

Curious…

Is Hanabusa's relatively high chance (at least for a challenger to an incumbent) of winning the seat more related to legacy, ethnicity, or ties to Abercrombie?

I know very little about Hawaiian politics, but I do know that Hawaii has a very large native Hawaiian and Asian population. Is Hanabusa's candidacy buoyed by these demographics? I also wonder if Schatz's ties with Abercrombie could haunt him on Election Day.