Could South Dakota be the next Kansas?

[IceSpear]

I can't help but see the parallels here. A Republican in a deep red plains state who was presumed to be a shoo-in is drastically underperforming in a race against a Democrat and an independent. He's languishing in the high 30s/low 40s, but the race is still considered fairly safe since that's a comfortable amount of support in a three way race and due to the partisan nature of the state. Until...?

Is it possible Dems could mediate and get Weiland and Pressler to strike some type of deal? They must both realize it will be impossible for either one of them to win in the current situation. Weiland could probably keep it competitive in a two way with Rounds, but a path to victory is probably easier to see for Pressler, IMO.

Of course, there's the fact that even if one drops out and endorses the other, they'll still be on the ballot and will attract at least a few percent. On the other hand, SD is also slightly bluer than Kansas and there's another right wing independent siphoning votes from Rounds, which mitigates this factor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the needs to be done rarely and with a clear purpose. Otherwise it becomes just a craven and tacky political maneuver that people start to reject.

[Adam Griffin]

Is there any evidence to suggest that three-quarters of the people voting independent would go to Weiland if the independent dropped out? Because that's what it would take (and that's still assuming that undecideds break evenly) for him to win. It'd almost certainly have to be another just-like-Kansas scenario instead.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there any evidence to suggest that three-quarters of the people voting independent would go to Weiland if the independent dropped out? Because that's what it would take (and that's still assuming that undecideds break evenly) for him to win. It'd almost certainly have to be another just-like-Kansas scenario instead.

Indeed - the Kansas situation is unique and would need to be replicated to work.

[KCDem]

Is there any evidence to suggest that three-quarters of the people voting independent would go to Weiland if the independent dropped out? Because that's what it would take (and that's still assuming that undecideds break evenly) for him to win. It'd almost certainly have to be another just-like-Kansas scenario instead.

The latest poll of just Weiland vs. Rounds showed the race within the MOE.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If it was gonna happen, it already would have.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If anything, Pressler would need to drop out to make it competitive for Weiland.

[windjammer]

Weiland basically ****** Reid. He's not going to drop out.

Period.

[Maxwell]

Yeah, I can't see it happening, so either Pressler takes a dive in the polls and Weiland upsets, or Pressler continues to grow and compromises the Demcorats oppurtunity and Mike Rounds wins by narrow double digits or high single digits.

[LeBron]

National Democrats never wanted Weiland to run to begin with, but it would be a hard matter of convincing Daschle to get Weiland to drop out. There's also the problem that even if he drops out, Weiland's name would still be on the ballot and would get about 4-6% of the vote. And even then, you can't be so certain all Weiland voters will go to Pressler. There would be some drop-off, and others who mistakingly vote for Weiland or Howie meaning still good news for Rounds. It would be a lot tougher for a Pressler upset than an Orman upset.

Pressler dropping out wouldn't really help either. If he did, I doubt he would be willing to endorse Weiland plus Pressler is stealing votes from both Weiland and Rounds. Rounds would still be favored to win in this scenario as the polls suggest.

[IceSpear]

Is there any evidence to suggest that three-quarters of the people voting independent would go to Weiland if the independent dropped out? Because that's what it would take (and that's still assuming that undecideds break evenly) for him to win. It'd almost certainly have to be another just-like-Kansas scenario instead.

Yeah, this is why Weiland dropping out and endorsing Pressler is the best case scenario. Obviously national Dems have no leverage with him, but perhaps someone could call in Daschle to mediate. It's not like Weiland has a prayer of winning in current circumstances anyway, and he has to be intelligent enough to realize this.

[MalaspinaGold]

I don't know if anyone's mentioned the EB-5 scandal, but that could also hurt Rounds more.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nope, Pressler + Weiland will keep this race at least Likely R despite Round's weak support.

[KCDem]

We shall see....