FiveThirtyEight: Orman now a 64% favorite
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  FiveThirtyEight: Orman now a 64% favorite 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight: Orman now a 64% favorite  (Read 1140 times)
JRP1994
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« on: September 19, 2014, 02:53:17 PM »
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-add-by-subtraction-in-kansas/
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2014, 02:54:53 PM »
That will soon change.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2014, 02:56:14 PM »

Err...why?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2014, 02:57:51 PM »
Makes sense.
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windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2014, 02:58:52 PM »

Because he won't win by 10 in the end. He will probably lose I guess. The polls will tighten, republicans will go home. This is Kansas after all.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2014, 03:01:13 PM »
This race is pretty unprecedented. I wouldn't even putting a rating on this until October (though Toss-Up is pretty good).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2014, 03:15:28 PM »
Gregory the Gallant continuing to crush Republican dreams. What a hero.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2014, 03:18:37 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2014, 03:22:06 PM by IceSpear »
Quote from: Sir Douchebag on September 19, 2014, 02:58:52 PM

Because he won't win by 10 in the end. He will probably lose I guess. The polls will tighten, republicans will go home. This is Kansas after all.

The polls will probably tighten, but there's no reason to assume he'll lose.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois,_2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Dakota,_2012

And Orman should be able to maintain more crossover support than any of them, since he's an independent and not a Democrat.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2014, 03:26:23 PM »
Quote from: Sir Douchebag on September 19, 2014, 02:58:52 PM

Because he won't win by 10 in the end. He will probably lose I guess. The polls will tighten, republicans will go home. This is Kansas after all.

Nah, he'll win by 5%
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2014, 04:10:33 PM »
I'd to place a bet with those odds. Any takers? Smiley
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Badger
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2014, 08:54:00 PM »
Quote from: Torie on September 19, 2014, 04:10:33 PM
I'd to place a bet with those odds. Any takers? Smiley

Not me.

Now 54%? Well.....maybe.
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Vega
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2014, 05:57:33 AM »
We'll probably see a reverse Illinois-Gov on this one. Republicans will come home to Pat Roberts.
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