NH-Sen: Scott Brown's flirtation

[free my dawg]

Fox has terminated his contract.

I for one look forward to defending our Senate seat from Massachusetts outsiders.

Your analysis sawx?

Likely D. If the mood turns 2010ish it could carry Brown over the hump, but other than that, Shaheen should be set for another term.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The attack ads write themselves - "Do you want a senator who would be Massachusetts's senator right now if he had his way?"

[NewYorkExpress]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/scott-brown-explores-bid-gop-gathers-nh-22908568
Scott Brown is done? flirting. Scott Brown is running?

Scott Brown announced the formation of an exploratory committee to enter the New Hampshire Senate Race at Republican Conference in Nashua today.


I know the filing deadline isn't until June, but you've talked about running for this long, wouldn't it make more sense to skip the exploratory committee.

P.S I guess this means Brown isn't running for President in 2016, is he?

[IceSpear]

He's announcing an exploratory committee, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

The Washington press corps is even more excited than when their boy Gillespie challenged a senator of similar vulnerability.

To be fair, at least a few polls have shown Brown within single digits of Shaheen. No evidence has shown Gillespie to be even remotely competitive with Warner, besides beltway pundit wet dreams.

[SPC]

Glorious news!

The horrific Barrycare will thrash Shaheen repeatedly Alex sink style.

Is Barrycare a better candidate than Scott Brown?

[SWE]

Glorious news!

The horrific Barrycare will thrash Shaheen repeatedly Alex sink style.

Is Barrycare a better candidate than Scott Brown?

A statue of George Washington would be a better candidate than Scott Brown

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They obviously wanted Judd Gregg to run, but his time was spent at the security exchange. I think Brown will be like Kirk, serving 1 term in the senate.

[Flake]

His website is just one big .gif at the moment.

[Joshgreen]

Hassan's coattails will help Shaheen deliver a good thrashing.

[Miles]

E-Warren already helping Shaheen.

[IceSpear]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

[SWE]

Larry Sabato moves this race from Likely D to Lean D

Lel

[IceSpear]

Larry Sabato moves this race from Likely D to Lean D
Lel

Predictable. Every pundit jumped the shark once they made Virginia "likely D", this is nothing compared to that.

[Joshgreen]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

It's because Brown isn't particularly smart.

[IceSpear]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

It's because Brown isn't particularly smart.

Touche.

[Miles]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

Well, he would have had to run 4 campaigns for Senate in MA over 4 years.

[SWE]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

Well, he would have had to run 4 campaigns for Senate in MA over 4 years.

Then why not just run for governor?

[Miles]

Then why not just run for governor?

Thats what I don't understand.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

Favorite against Markey in Massachusetts? You've got to be kidding me.

[SWE]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

Favorite against Markey in Massachusetts? You've got to be kidding me.

He obviously wouldn't be the favorite, but a at least there he'd have a chance

[IceSpear]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

Favorite against Markey in Massachusetts? You've got to be kidding me.

In the special election, yes. He only lost against Warren by 8 points even as Obama won the state by 23 points. His approval ratings were still high even though he lost, they just liked Warren even more. Markey is about as exciting as watching paint dry and nobody cares about him. Combine that with lower turnout, and I'd say Brown definitely would've had a >50% chance of winning that election.

I even think he'd have a better chance running against Markey in the regular election rather than carpet bagging to NH against Shaheen. Though he'd still be the underdog.

[Maxwell]

He burned any chance of being electable anywhere with this dumb flirtation stuff. Coakley was truly a horrible candidate to lose to this guy.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Brown wanted to get back in the Senate this badly, why didn't he just run in the special election against Markey? He would've been the favorite there, but against Shaheen he's a distinct underdog.

Favorite against Markey in Massachusetts? You've got to be kidding me.

In the special election, yes. He only lost against Warren by 8 points even as Obama won the state by 23 points. His approval ratings were still high even though he lost, they just liked Warren even more. Markey is about as exciting as watching paint dry and nobody cares about him. Combine that with lower turnout, and I'd say Brown definitely would've had a >50% chance of winning that election.

I even think he'd have a better chance running against Markey in the regular election rather than carpet bagging to NH against Shaheen. Though he'd still be the underdog.

I agree very strongly with the paragraph.  I also think that the flirtation with NH was a fatal move for Brown, assuming that he had further electoral ambitions.

Throughout our history, very few people have been elected to the Congress from different states during their lifetime.  The only such person in my lifetime I can think of is Rep. Ed Forman (R) from Texas (1963-65) and New Mexico (1968-70).  Most former Congressmen/Senators who run in other states are generally sacrificial lambs.  New Hampshire's own former GOP Senator Bob Smith ran for the Senate in FL a few years back and got no more traction then I would have, and FL is a state full of migrants.  History puts Brown's chances of pulling off the job as minimal.

The other factor here is that New Hampshire is the most Republican state in New England, and by a lot.  It's GOP is the most viable of any state in New England, and I can't see potential candidates against Shaheen just stepping aside for a carpetbagger.

What Brown SHOULD have done to revive his career is run for Governor of Massachusetts.  The GOP has been extremely successful in electing Massachusetts Governors, and Brown would have been the strongest candidate amongst Republicans (and, maybe, against any Democrat).  I could see Brown being elected Governor of MA in 2014.  He's chosen poorly, but I'm not surprised.  He lucked into a Senate seat, but couldn't figure out how to hold it against a candidate with her own flaws (Warren).

[IceSpear]

Brown probably didn't want to be governor because then he'd actually have to, you know, govern. Plus with the massive Democratic majorities in the legislature, he'd be a fairly ineffective vassal for the Kochs there.

[RogueBeaver]

Still likely D, as Enten points out.