NH-Sen: Scott Brown's flirtation

[henster]

Shaheen is no pushover Brown thought she was weak but she is an experienced pol and a far more skilled politician than Brown. I think he severely underestimated her abilities as a candidate he will end up losing badly and embarrassing himself.

[free my dawg]

No. We'll see the final result in November, although Shaheen has about a 73% chance of winning at this point. I personally hope Brown can make a comeback, but his new state seems to feel quite differently so far.

No, it's over. This isn't about "we'll see" anymore - he's gotten a lot of hate from the left (for being a shill for the Koch brothers), from both sectors of the far-right (for his stances on abortion and gun control), and from most groups around the state (I have a friend who's a moderate Republican, and a former fan of Scott Brown, who says that he "knows he can't win in Massachusetts so he's trying to take our Senate seat"). And to make matters worse for him, there's a libertarian in the race to capitalize on the "pissed off conservatives" vote, and candidates who are dissuaged by Brown's carpetbagging.

Add this with the constant polls and it's looking like this race is safe.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Shaheen is no pushover Brown thought she was weak but she is an experienced pol and a far more skilled politician than Brown. I think he severely underestimated her abilities as a candidate he will end up losing badly and embarrassing himself.

I don't think he'll lose by any sort of wide margin, I think it'll end up around Shaheen's 2008 margin (7 points), give or take a point or two.

Brown thought Shaheen would be an easy target because she's from a state that is far more purple than MA and because Shaheen is one of the least bipartisan senators, voting with the majority of democrats about 99% of the time.  But apparently her state doesn't care whether she's bipartisan or not, or perhaps they just don't see a former massachusetts senator who lost by 8 despite having a 59% approval rating as being all that better than Shaheen. Republicans should have gone with someone like Judd Gregg or perhaps even Sununu again.... This race hasn't been polled much by reputable companies, and if this is to be another 2010 perhaps Shaheen could go down, but under the political climate of today she seems to be okay.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Brown thought Shaheen would be an easy target because she's from a state that is far more purple than MA and because Shaheen is one of the least bipartisan senators, voting with the majority of democrats about 99% of the time.  But apparently her state doesn't care whether she's bipartisan or not, or perhaps they just don't see a former massachusetts senator who lost by 8 despite having a 59% approval rating as being all that better than Shaheen.

And why should they? Shaheen was a popular three-term governor before and still has a lot of good will left over from that, and remember that, for people who are so hard-up for bipartisanship, the state's other senator is a conservative Republican.

[Miles]

No. We'll see the final result in November, although Shaheen has about a 73% chance of winning at this point. I personally hope Brown can make a comeback, but his new state seems to feel quite differently so far.

This seems oddly precise...

Yeah, where exactly does 73% come from? Both WaPo and the Upshot have Shaheen at over 90%.

[free my dawg]

Shaheen is no pushover Brown thought she was weak but she is an experienced pol and a far more skilled politician than Brown. I think he severely underestimated her abilities as a candidate he will end up losing badly and embarrassing himself.

I don't think he'll lose by any sort of wide margin, I think it'll end up around Shaheen's 2008 margin (7 points), give or take a point or two.

Brown thought Shaheen would be an easy target because she's from a state that is far more purple than MA and because Shaheen is one of the least bipartisan senators, voting with the majority of democrats about 99% of the time.  But apparently her state doesn't care whether she's bipartisan or not, or perhaps they just don't see a former massachusetts senator who lost by 8 despite having a 59% approval rating as being all that better than Shaheen. Republicans should have gone with someone like Judd Gregg or perhaps even Sununu again.... This race hasn't been polled much by reputable companies, and if this is to be another 2010 perhaps Shaheen could go down, but under the political climate of today she seems to be okay.

ITT: "Moderates" parrot right-wing talking points because "muh bipartisanship".

No, we don't care if she's bipartisan or not. She was a very good governor who managed to get beaten in an R-leaning year because of a combination of her policies as governor (mainly trying to create a sales tax) and foul play. We aren't going to give Massachusetts one of our Senate seats. Scott Brown has only been here for six months, and now, he blatantly wants to take advantage of New Hampshire voters and directly sabotaged one of Shaheen's bills to weaken her standing as a Senator. I'd be sweating this race if John Sununu ran, or even Garcia or Chris Sununu, but Scott Brown cannot beat her, even if it's another 2010. We aren't stupid.

[NHLiberal]

Shaheen is no pushover Brown thought she was weak but she is an experienced pol and a far more skilled politician than Brown. I think he severely underestimated her abilities as a candidate he will end up losing badly and embarrassing himself.

I don't think he'll lose by any sort of wide margin, I think it'll end up around Shaheen's 2008 margin (7 points), give or take a point or two.

Brown thought Shaheen would be an easy target because she's from a state that is far more purple than MA and because Shaheen is one of the least bipartisan senators, voting with the majority of democrats about 99% of the time.  But apparently her state doesn't care whether she's bipartisan or not, or perhaps they just don't see a former massachusetts senator who lost by 8 despite having a 59% approval rating as being all that better than Shaheen. Republicans should have gone with someone like Judd Gregg or perhaps even Sununu again.... This race hasn't been polled much by reputable companies, and if this is to be another 2010 perhaps Shaheen could go down, but under the political climate of today she seems to be okay.

Republicans can't just "go with" Judd Gregg or Sununu. That would have required one of them to want to run, and if that had been the case, Scott Brown wouldn't be running/wouldn't have a chance if he was running. Obviously neither of them wanted to run.

Prediction: Brown loses to Shaheen by a larger margin than he lost to Warren.

[DrScholl]

It's entirely possible that he loses to Shaheen by more than he lost to Warren. New Hampshire is far less Democratic than Massachusetts, but can have hard swings in either direction and Shaheen could easily get 55% to 56% of the vote against Brown.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

No chance at all. This is a good thing for republicans, as Brown is consistently polling better against Shaheen than the other republican candidates are (Former NH Sen. Robert Smith, Former NH State Sen. Jim Rubens, and Perennial Candidate Andy Martin).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

No chance at all. This is a good thing for republicans, as Brown is consistently polling better against Shaheen than the other republican candidates are (Former NH Sen. Robert Smith, Former NH State Sen. Jim Rubens, and Perennial Candidate Andy Martin).

The fact that you are reduced to citing the fact that Scott Brown polls better than the likes of Bob Smith as your evidence of the forner's "strength" really says it all

[SWE]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

No chance at all. This is a good thing for republicans, as Brown is consistently polling better against Shaheen than the other republican candidates are (Former NH Sen. Robert Smith, Former NH State Sen. Jim Rubens, and Perennial Candidate Andy Martin).

Polling better than people nobody's heard of isn't a huge distinction.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

No chance at all. This is a good thing for republicans, as Brown is consistently polling better against Shaheen than the other republican candidates are (Former NH Sen. Robert Smith, Former NH State Sen. Jim Rubens, and Perennial Candidate Andy Martin).

Polling better than people nobody's heard of isn't a huge distinction.

The people of New Hampshire never heard of Bob Smith when they elected him to the Senate?

[NHLiberal]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

No chance at all. This is a good thing for republicans, as Brown is consistently polling better against Shaheen than the other republican candidates are (Former NH Sen. Robert Smith, Former NH State Sen. Jim Rubens, and Perennial Candidate Andy Martin).

Polling better than people nobody's heard of isn't a huge distinction.

The people of New Hampshire never heard of Bob Smith when they elected him to the Senate?

He left the party to run for President in 2000 then moved to Florida to run for Senate there and is back for the first time in 12 years, so lots of people don't remember him. And even amongst those who do, he is, for the most part, persona non grata

[Dixie Reborn]

any chance Scott Brown comes out with a statement that says "tee hee, just kidding! I'm not really going to run fro Senate in somebody else's state." ? 

No chance at all. This is a good thing for republicans, as Brown is consistently polling better against Shaheen than the other republican candidates are (Former NH Sen. Robert Smith, Former NH State Sen. Jim Rubens, and Perennial Candidate Andy Martin).

Polling better than people nobody's heard of isn't a huge distinction.

The people of New Hampshire never heard of Bob Smith when they elected him to the Senate?

He left the party to run for President in 2000 then moved to Florida to run for Senate there and is back for the first time in 12 years, so lots of people don't remember him. And even amongst those who do, he is, for the most part, persona non grata

Does anyone actually think Smith has a chance? He's run a terrible campaign, especially for a former senator, and has hardly raised his name recognition. The only thing he could possibly have going for him is the "Scott Brown is a Carpetbagger" sentiment.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I forgot Bob Smith ever existed.

[Maxwell]

If anyone is going to upset Scott Brown, it's probably Jim Reubens, not Bob Smith. But I think Brown will win the nod, even with his decline in poll numbers against Shaheen.

[free my dawg]

Brown runs as far away from Hobby Lobby as he can.

[badgate]

Kelly Ayotte to officiate the wedding of Scott Brown's daughter.

[free my dawg]

Go home Scott, you're drunk.

[Free Bird]

Remember when we thought this was competitive?

[SWE]

Remember when we thought this was competitive?

When?

[Free Bird]

Remember when we thought this was competitive?

When?

EXACTLY!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Remember when we thought this was competitive?

Who is we?

[Free Bird]

Remember when we thought this was competitive?

Who is we?

Another exactly. Though I have seen some people use "we" as a hive-like statement for their party, so I guess you could say Republicans that like Scott Brown like me. Now the smoke has cleared and it's clear he is not the cavalry to take out Shaheen we all made him out to be.