NH-Sen: Scott Brown's flirtation

[free my dawg]

I hope he runs. I really do.

This would be a bigger disaster than Guinta.

[free my dawg]

This is just headline grabbing. If he really wanted back in he'd have gone for the rematch with Coakley.

This is my thinking too. I think he's using this as a smokescreen for 2016.

[free my dawg]

This race will be an epic battle, should we lose Shaheen, the goal is to keep 51 senators. Best bet is holding on MnT with Walsh.

I think he's building publicity for a run in 2016, but if he does, it's Likely D. We don't feel like giving up our Senate seat to Massachusetts, or any other state for a matter of fact.

Plus the fact that Brown has to win 75% of undecideds to win. The fact that NH has a strong independent streak and someone who isn't even from here is the other candidate shows how ridiculous it is.

[free my dawg]

*Shaheen is no Coakley. Look how well Weld did in the Governor's race in NY. Kuster will be fine, and Shea-Porter should win too. We're not overly receptive to socons.

[free my dawg]

Scott Brown is traveling to Iowa.

This is why I'm not reading too much into his romp around NH. Seems to be using the Senate seat to build publicity.

[free my dawg]

DM, D+1

Either way, seems like Warren made him lose his mind

[free my dawg]

I'm still saying that this is a smokescreen.

[free my dawg]

Al Baldasaro, one of the craziest members of the New Hampshire House, is exploring a run for Senate.

His greatest hits include applauding the booing of a gay soldier for coming out and asking about DADT, comparing gay adoption to human trafficking, calling the banning of lead sinkers/jigs to protect our loon population a UN plot, and being part of the infamous House Birther Caucus, who collectively lost their sh**t when the courts ruled that Obama was, indeed, a US citizen.

It's like f***ing Christmas morning.

[free my dawg]

Also worth noting: Brown is receiving opposition from his right about carpetbagging, especially about guns.

[free my dawg]

Already posted this in the megathread, but whatever. Scott Brown appearing at a campaign kickoff. In Massachusetts. For MA-9 candidate John Chapman.

If he's looking to prove he's a New Hampshirite, he's doing a horrible job.

[free my dawg]

Also would be good to put up recent polling info in here, right?

Brown vs. Shaheen since December:

ARG - 12/15: D+10
PPP - 1/11: TIE
Purple Strategies - 1/22: D+3
WMUR/UNH - 1/24: D+10

Not terrible for a carpetbagger imo. Tho yes, I acknowledge that polling for elections 10 months out, especially when primaries haven't been held, is almost entirely silly and pointless. Still, I wouldn't peg Brown at anywhere near Liz Cheney levels of delusion quite so soon.

And the other thing is that ARG/WMUR are junk. Brown certainly isn't Liz Cheney, but I think he's at his ceiling. Lowered conservative turnout/a libertarian candidate siphoning votes will carry Shaheen over the hump. Considering I know a few NH conservatives, they aren't thrilled with Brown's stance on guns. I can easily see conservatives sitting this election out or just voting third party if he somehow runs. But do I think he will?

He may not decide till April or May, filing deadline's June.

Is Scott Brown going Palin?

Let's just say I think that he's using the Senate as a decoy to keep his name in the limelight for 2016. Looks like he's going all-in on NH.

[free my dawg]

This could just be me, and if anyone disagrees, I can understand. My thinking is, it's actually smart for him to go back and forth on this, and not simply plunge into this race so quickly. Firstly, if he needs to decide by June, he'll have a fairly good sense of whether the race is within reach or not. If he loses, his political career is officially over.

I also think, by not plunging in right away, and by allowing people to speculate about his intentions, he's been able to maybe blunt some of the inevitable carpetbagger attacks. He's going to get attacked for it anyway, but at least this way, people are also somewhat used to the idea of it -- if that makes sense. He's still going to deal with these attacks, they just might not hurt him as much? This is just something I was thinking about this morning, so I could be entirely off.

This isn't anything like that. He is attention whoring.

[free my dawg]

Fox has terminated his contract.

I for one look forward to defending our Senate seat from Massachusetts outsiders.

[free my dawg]

Fox has terminated his contract.

I for one look forward to defending our Senate seat from Massachusetts outsiders.

Your analysis sawx?

Likely D. If the mood turns 2010ish it could carry Brown over the hump, but other than that, Shaheen should be set for another term.

[free my dawg]

Early Primary Prediction

Bob Smith wins the battle of the carpetbaggers 51-48. (Although I still think Smith has residency in Florida...)

Would be plausible if Rubens and Testerman dropped out. I'm expecting Brown to get somewhere in the 40s.

[free my dawg]

R+1

[free my dawg]

It'd be interesting how the Tea Party deals with Brown, considering they're much stronger in New Hampshire than Massachusetts, and that Brown is pro-choice.

Probably staying home or running a third-party candidate. The anti-Brown vote is split between three candidates right now, and I see the Libertarian candidate getting 5-9% of the vote (depending on how strong the anti-D mood is).

But I'm still keeping this Safe D. Whatever moderates who will vote for Brown will be offset by conservative anger.

[free my dawg]

No need to worry. Brown +5 is an internal.

[free my dawg]

Sununu seems to be an ass hole, doesn't he?

Can confirm, have friends close to the NHGOP.

[free my dawg]

Now, the NHGOP is apparently attacking Jeanne Shaheen on "flip-flopping on a sales tax".

Because she tried to institute one as governor.

Using a debate video from 1996 when Scott Brown was a selectman in Wrentham, Massachusetts.

This just just laughable, until you realize that they said that they would "blow up" Shaheen today, which just happens to be the anniversary of the Boston Marathon bombing.

My state's Republican Party, everyone. What a f***ing embarrassment.

[free my dawg]

Now, the NHGOP is apparently attacking Jeanne Shaheen on "flip-flopping on a sales tax".

Because she tried to institute one as governor.

Using a debate video from 1996 when Scott Brown was a selectman in Wrentham, Massachusetts.

This just just laughable, until you realize that they said that they would "blow up" Shaheen today, which just happens to be the anniversary of the Boston Marathon bombing.

My state's Republican Party, everyone. What a f***ing embarrassment.

I have understood nothing. Could you explain?

The NHGOP made a release saying that they would "blow up" Shaheen on the issue of a sales tax today. Today just happens to be the anniversary of the Boston Marathon.

She does not support an internet sales tax, however, the NHGOP has tweeted about ten times that she supported a full sales tax in 2001 as governor. Scott Brown was a state representative at this point in time.

[free my dawg]

The NH GOP seems so crazy for a swing state.

It really is. Their social media sounds like it's run by the average Tea Party troglodyte, the former Speaker of the House admitted on tape to trying to suppress the out-of-state student vote because they were liberal, and they're running a bunch of crazies for Governor. They did well in 2010, and they've pissed away all their riches in 2016.

The second reason is why I will never vote Republican. In Bill O'Brien's world, I wouldn't have the right to vote.

[free my dawg]

Average Republican troglodyte ragetweets at Shaheen saying she knows nothing about hockey after she congratulates the Bruins in advancing.

Oh wait. That's just the NHGOP's official Twitter account. But then again, what's the difference?

If they're that desperate that they're going to attack her over sports, then Brown is bound to lose.

[free my dawg]

Ignore the Dartmouth poll. 26% undecided between two well known candidates, more undecided voters than Hassan voters, and of course, >decimals

Basically it's a massive pile of junk.

[free my dawg]

Habemus libertarianem!

I'm betting he breaks 5%, grabbing the "f**k both candidates" vote and conservatives who are pissed off at Brown for his views/generally not being one of us.