Is Iraq headed back into civil war?

[Mr. Morden]

Latest news isn't exactly encouraging.  Maliki government cracking down on Sunni areas, and Sunni tribes now trying to remilitarize:

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/04/25/Iraqi-official-says-Hawija-incident-harms-army-s-image.html

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The Syria conflict is also starting to spill over into Lebanon now.  Will we soon just have one big cluster-f*^k of a Sunni-Shiite-Alawite-Christian-Druze (and Kurdish) sectarian war stretching from Iraq to Lebanon?

[politicus]

The Syria conflict is also starting to spill over into Lebanon now.  Will we soon just have one big cluster-f*^k of a Sunni-Shiite-Alawite-Christian-Druze (and Kurdish) sectarian war stretching from Iraq to Lebanon?

That is, unfortunately, the most likely scenario.

[Cory]

I guess the Biden Plan was right all along.

[MaxQue]

The Syria conflict is also starting to spill over into Lebanon now.  Will we soon just have one big cluster-f*^k of a Sunni-Shiite-Alawite-Christian-Druze (and Kurdish) sectarian war stretching from Iraq to Lebanon?

That is, unfortunately, the most likely scenario.

Well, hopefully, if that happens, they will draw new lines, instead of keeping the problematic colonial country limits.

[dead0man]

Probably.

and this.

Well, hopefully, if that happens, they will draw new lines, instead of keeping the problematic colonial country limits.

[© tweed]

not so long as we can keep expropriating the oil without issue.  once it interferes with that it can qualify as a civil war.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Biden plan was not right. The Biden plan was stupid. It's the sort of thing someone who thinks they're an expert because they read a Wikipedia article would come up with.


3 words: Baghdad, mixed city.

[Blue3]

Honestly, the recent violence just seems like more of the same. There was just an election, that's the reason for the slight uptick in violence.

Syria and Iran are really destabilizing the whole region, though.

[Mr. Morden]

Honestly, the recent violence just seems like more of the same. There was just an election, that's the reason for the slight uptick in violence.

Certainly the civil war never really "ended" as such.  However, while I haven't been following this terribly closely for a while now, my understanding was that, for the last several years at least, the mainstream Sunni leaders were participating in the political process.  If I'm understanding the situation correctly, most of the violence in the last few years has been killings by various rogue militias or jihadi groups.

As I'm reading what's been happening there this week though, the violence now seems to have a very different character.  There's been an Arab Spring-esque Sunni protest movement for several months now, which has now led to violent clashes with the government and things seem to be in danger of spiralling out of control.  Read Wikipedia's entry on the "Sunni uprising" for a recap:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13_Iraqi_protests#Sunni_uprising

Also, what's being reported on other news sites:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/04/27/179462354/iraqs-sunnis-form-tribal-army-as-sectarian-violence-builds

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EDIT: Oh yeah, and not to be too alarmist, but as I mentioned, things aren't great in Lebanon either:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/26/us-syria-crisis-hezbollah-idUSBRE93P09720130426

[Nhoj]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22329641

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[Cory]

The Biden plan was not right. The Biden plan was stupid. It's the sort of thing someone who thinks they're an expert because they read a Wikipedia article would come up with.


3 words: Baghdad, mixed city.

What is your proposition? The Shia and Sunni hate each other, and the PKK is relocating it's forces to Northern Iraq.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You had the same issue in Bosnia in the city of Brčko. It was resolved.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Thanks, Britain!

[Famous Mortimer]

The Biden plan was not right. The Biden plan was stupid. It's the sort of thing someone who thinks they're an expert because they read a Wikipedia article would come up with.


3 words: Baghdad, mixed city.

What is your proposition? The Shia and Sunni hate each other, and the PKK is relocating it's forces to Northern Iraq.

There really isn't a good solution but the Biden plan would actually make things worse.

Again, what do you do about mixed cities? Who gets Baghdad? Who gets Kirkuk?

If it looked like a split was likely, each side would up the ante in terms of ethnic cleansing to make sure they got the disputed areas.

[Famous Mortimer]

Thanks, Britain!

You do realize that before Britain came along, all of Iraq was actually lumped in to an even bigger country?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the reality is that you sometimes have to make awkward and 'artificial' boundaries work to some definition or other of 'work'.

[Mr. Morden]

Things really aren't going very well.  WaPo has a story titled "Sectarianism in Iraq stoked by Syrian war":

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/sectarianism-in-iraq-stoked-by-syrian-war/2013/05/16/b74161da-bc98-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_story.html

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Also:

link

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Doesn't Rick Perry want to reinvade Iraq? I'm sure that another $1 trillion war will solve all the problems.

[bgwah]

May was deadliest month in Iraq in ~5 years: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22740452

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Syria conflict is also starting to spill over into Lebanon now.  Will we soon just have one big cluster-f*^k of a Sunni-Shiite-Alawite-Christian-Druze (and Kurdish) sectarian war stretching from Iraq to Lebanon?

That is, unfortunately, the most likely scenario.

Well, hopefully, if that happens, they will draw new lines, instead of keeping the problematic colonial country limits.

This is always a bad idea.

[Hash]

The Syria conflict is also starting to spill over into Lebanon now.  Will we soon just have one big cluster-f*^k of a Sunni-Shiite-Alawite-Christian-Druze (and Kurdish) sectarian war stretching from Iraq to Lebanon?

That is, unfortunately, the most likely scenario.

Well, hopefully, if that happens, they will draw new lines, instead of keeping the problematic colonial country limits.

This is always a bad idea.

I wish to second this a million times.

The old Western idea that we could fix every problem in Africa and the world by just "drawing new lines" (partition) to replace "colonial borders" is really simplistic and shows no understanding of the reality. Partition will not 'fix' any problems.

[bgwah]

These kinds of conflicts tend to segregate the population on their own, but yeah there are still a lot of mixed areas.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

These kinds of conflicts tend to segregate the population on their own, but yeah there are still a lot of mixed areas.

Yeah, I too approve of ethnic cleansing.

[bgwah]

These kinds of conflicts tend to segregate the population on their own, but yeah there are still a lot of mixed areas.

Yeah, I too approve of ethnic cleansing.

Just stating a fact, douche.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Thanks, Britain!

You do realize that before Britain came along, all of Iraq was actually lumped in to an even bigger country?

Yes, and it was a lot more stable.