Argentina 2013: Legislative Election, Primaries and assorted maps

[Velasco]

Last week I couldn't update this and there were important news on the health of La Presidenta.

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/10/07/inenglish/1381163916_825915.html?rel=rosEP

The surgery was "successful", according to Fernández de Kirchner spokesman, though La Presidenta will have to rest between 30 and 45 days. In absence of the president, the vice president is in charge. CFdK's vice is Amado Boudou, politically irrelevant and involved in a corruption scandal:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/10/08/inenglish/1381253274_626104.html?rel=rosEP

Opposition in Argentina asks: "who is governing the country?"

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/10/10/inenglish/1381428332_270998.html

[Velasco]

Polls galore.

La Nación (Poliarquía, 10/6):

Buenos Aires City:

Senate: PRO (Michetti) 39.8%; FPV (Filmus) 22.5%; UNEN (Solanas) 21.6%; Workers' Left Front (Dellecarbonara) 3.3%; Camino Popular (Claudio Lozano) 3.1%

Deputies: PRO (Bergman) 30.6%; UNEN (Carrió) 28.2%; FPV (Cabandié) 20.6%; Workers' left Front (Jorge Altamira) 5.3%; Self Determination and Freedom (Luis Zamora) 5%.

Pino Solanas might lose 1/3 of the UNEN vote in the primaries, whereas Elisa Carrió might lose 1/4. According to this poll 45% of Prat-Gay and 28% of Terragno voters would switch to Gabriela Michetti (PRO) in the senatorial election. In deputies, 12% of Gil Lavedra and 20% of Martín Lousteau voters would switch to Bergman.

By geographical area, Michetti wins in the south (43%), the center (35%) and the north (46%) of the autonomous city. Bergman wins in the south (33%) and the north (35%) and there's a ties with Carrió in the centre (28%). Filmus and Cabandié would perform better in the south and the center, with lower percentages in the north of the city.

Clarín (Management & Fit, 10/6)

Buenos Aires City:

Senate: PRO (Gabriela Michetti) 32.7%; UNEN (Pino Solanas) 24.8%; FPV (Daniel Filmus) 22%.

Deputies: UNEN (Elisa Carrió) 29.2%; PRO (Sergio Bergman) 26.2%; FPV (Juan Cabandié) 20.5%.

Buenos Aires (Province):

Frente Renovador (Sergio Massa) 39%; FPV (Martín Insaurralde) 29.7%. The journalist forgot the percentages for FPCS (Margarita Stolbizer) and FULT (De Narváez). The news only says that the center-left retains the third place and De Narváez loses a 5%.

Córdoba:
Union for Cordoba (Juan Schiaretti) 30.8%; UCR (Óscar Aguad) 22.4%; FPV (Carolina Scotto) 13.3%; PRO (Héctor Baldassi) 11.2%.

Santa Fe: FPCS (Hermes Binner) 40.4%; PRO (Miguel Torres Del Sel) 22%; FPV (Jorge Obeid) 21.6%.

Página 12 (Poliarquía, 10/7)

Buenos Aires (Province): Frente Renovador (Massa) 39.8%; FPV (Insaurralde) 32.3%; FPCS (Stolbizer) 11.7%; FULT (De Narváez) 6.3%; Workers' Left Front (Néstor Pítrola) 3.9%.

The threshold to get a deputy is 3% of the census roll so, depending on participation, Pítrola might win his seat with the 3.9% of the valid votes or not.

Perfil (MGMR, 10/13):

Frente Renovador 42%; FPV 35%; FPCS 14%; FULT below 5%; Workers' Left Front 2.8%.

La Nación (Poliarquía 10/13):

95% of the interviewees affirms that the problems of health of Cristina Fernandez will not change their vote. 38 % thinks that Amado Boudou is not qualified to exercise as president, 26% thinks that his qualification is little and 30% distributes to equal parts between whom they think that he's qualified enough or is very qualified. 2/3 does not trust or trusts very little in the way that Boudou is going to exercise the presidency.

[RodPresident]

Which are the impacts of Cabandié-Insaurralde scandal?

[Velasco]

Which are the impacts of Cabandié-Insaurralde scandal?

Apparently the argument between Cabandie and a traffic policewoman is weakening FPV in the capital. The last poll in Perfil (MGMR, 10/19) puts Daniel Filmus in the 3rd place in the Senate and losing the minority seat with Michetti winning comfortably, almost a landslide.

Gabriela Michetti (PRO) 42.8%; Pino Solanas (UNEN) 24.5%; Daniel Filmus (FPV) 21.1%.

For deputies Bergman (PRO) and Carrió (UNEN) are tied and Cabandié is 3rd with only the 17.1% (21.1% two weeks ago). The left-wing candidates, Jorge Altamira (FIT) and Luis Zamora are close to win a seat (they need approx. a 6% and both candidates are around a 5%).

In Buenos Aires province the Cabandié scandal might have cut Martín Insaurralde's light ascent in the polls and Sergio Massa would be increasing his advantage again. Insaurralde's relationship with a model would not have concerned the popularity of the FPV candidate in previous dates. The center left  is reaching deadlock in the province and De Narváez is still quoting to the fall, with the Trotskyist Néstor Pítrola (FIT) on the edge of winning a seat in the Chamber of Deputies.

Frente Renovador 42.7%; FPV 34%; FPCS 12.9%; De Narváez 5.2%; Workers' Left Front (FIT) around 3.9%.

On the national level there won't be great variations with the August primaries, with the FPV as first minority, obtaining a percentage similar or a bit lower with regard to the 2009 Legislative and retaining a short majority in both chambers (likely there will be a period of instability until 2015 and there's no certainty on the loyalty of some deputies) and the sum of the different opposition Peronist factions overcoming the center left thanks to the results in Buenos Aires. The center-left might increase in some interior provinces, but the bad results in the province of Buenos Aires and the Cordoba catastrophe (related to the decline of Luis Juez's figure, who is not running in these elections and seems to be definitively eliminated for the next gubernatorial) concern the national percentage. Finally, Mauricio Macri's PRO and allies will get around 7% of the national vote. Also, the Workers' Left Front might score 5% or 6% with provinces like Salta turning into Trotskyst bastions

[Velasco]

-The Supreme Court of Argentina has suspended the gubernatorial election in Santiago del Estero province, scheduled next Sunday, aborting the sure election of governor Gerardo Zamora for a third mandate. The lawsuit was presented by the provincial UCR under the sponsorship of the leader of the radical parliamentary block, Ricardo Gil Lavedra, indicating that the constitution of the province bans expressly more than one reelection for the governor's post. The suspension of the elections is a precautionary measure and the case will have to be solved before December 10. Among other things, the verdict says:

"The political history of the Argentina is tragically bountiful in institutional experiments that - with minor or major importance and success - tried to force, in some cases up to making them disappear, the republican principles that our Constitution establishes. This past should discourage tests that, as here expressed, prosecute the only aim to grant four more years in the exercise of the maximum magistracy ".

"In principle, the act of the Federal Party and of the Civic Front for Santiago del Estero, which try to present before the people a candidate who is not constitutionally qualified, is a 'maneuver' that doesn't know 'the most elementary constitutional rules' ".

-Violent incidents in the northern province of Jujuy. Two persons have been wounded during an electoral trek of Milagros Sala, candidate of the United and Organized Front and Tupac Amaru leader. They accuse of the assault persons linked to UCR senator Guillermo Morales, who says the incident was a dispute between local mafias. Other violent acts during this campaign include a stone-throwing assault against Sergio Massa's caravan, an attempt by armed motorists on the house of Santa Fe governor Antonio Bonfatti (PS) and the murder of the intendant (mayor) of Lobería (Buenos Aires), Héctor Rodríguez (FPV) by a municipal employee.

[Velasco]

End of " the longest and unbearably monotonous" campaign - According to Jorge Asís the society suffers certain "moral weariness"; the candidates are "predictable" and "too much known".

The convalescent Cristina Fernandez brings into play the majority in both chambers of the Argentinian Congress, which likely she will retain by a narrow margin. The FPV has a wealth of faithful voters that will allow it to continue being the first political force of the country, favored by the fragmentation of the opposition. After the elections Cristina will try to avoid desertions towards the opposition field and to be able to influence her succession.

The fortune of Daniel Scioli is tied to the result in the province he governs, Buenos Aires. He needs to shorten the distance with Sergio Massa to appear before the official Peronism as the man who avoided a catastrophic result. The different provincial bosses (Capitanich, Uribarri, Urtubey) need to win in their districts by the broader margin possible. Entre Ríos governor, Sergio Uribarri, might be outlined as the rival of Scioli in the succession battle. La Presidenta and the loyal kirchnerists prefer Uribarri over the "conservative" Scioli.

Sergio Massa needs to increase the 5 % margin obtained in August against Martin Insaurralde to be postulated as presidential candidate in 2015 and to gather support of provincial leaders. If the bets are right, Massa might win by a margin between 8% and 10%.

On the center-left side the Socialist Hermes Binner and the radical Julio Cobos will win easily in their respective territories, Santa Fe and Mendoza, and likely they will be rivals to be postulated as presidential candidates. The multi-colored forces of the "progressive" opposition know that they need to go together to have chances in the next presidential election. In Buenos Aires City Elisa Carrió will have to struggle against the Mauricio Macri's PRO, the favourite according to the polls. Ricardo Alfonsín (UCR) predicts a 2015 contest between a Peronist candidate, leaning liberal-conservative and likely under the Frente Renovador banner, and a candidate of the "Progressive Front".

Mauricio Macri might obtain a clear victory in the capital. His deputy Gabriela Michetti will win by a landslide in the Senate and even the rabbi Bergman can beat Elisa Carrió. The PRO also has hopes in Santa Fe (Miguel Del Sel), Entre Ríos (Alfredo de Angeli) and Córdoba (Héctor Baldassi). A good result of these and a victory in the capital would place Macri in the presidential race. Macri's disadvantage is that Massa and Scioli compete for the same portion of the electorate.

In absence of substance, some colorful pics.



Massa's "epic" closing campaign meeting. His wife, Malena Galmarini, hugs him tightly.



Gossip time. Martín Insaurralde and her girlfriend, the model Jesica Cirio.



Elisa Carrió and Pino Solanas (UNEN). The man behind might be Prat-Gay, if I'm not wrong.



The boss, Macri, with Michetti and Bergman. The PRO people is euphoric and fly balloons.



The Workers' Left Front: Jorge Altamira, Myriam Bregman and Néstor Pitrola. The Trotskyst alliance has chances in Buenos Aires City (Altamira) and the province of Buenos Aires (Pitrola). They will perform strongly in Mendoza, Salta (in the capital, the Workers' Party was the second force in August) or Jujuy.

[Edu]

I voted a couple of hours ago, hope I'm not disappointed by the end of the day

And thanks for making this thread and regularly updating it, good job

[FredLindq]

Where, on what party and Why?! :-)

[Velasco]

I voted a couple of hours ago, hope I'm not disappointed by the end of the day

And thanks for making this thread and regularly updating it, good job

Unless you are a Massa supporter you might be disappointed one way or another However, the Kirchner clique had a strong disappointment in 2009 and an epic victory in 2011, so the outcome might not be conclusive and people will reclaim a real alternative in 2015. I bet that tomorrow everybody will say that they were victors.

Massa says that his thing is "centrist", "moderate" and "economically Keynesian"... I don't know what to think about the guy (I think he resembles EPN a bit). I hope that Macri doesn't win the three elections in the capital, though I'm not a Lilita's fan  

Thanks. I was lacking the time to update this properly. I said almost nothing on the main issues of the (insubstantial) campaign as inflation and insecurity. El País remarks today that Argentina has the second lowest murder rate in Latin America but it's the first country in "assaults" (I guess it means robberies and the like). Also some measures CFdK adopted to counteract her unpopularity after August as lowering income taxes, plus Scioli and Insaurralde reminding the achievements of the Kirchner era as the AUH and the increased coverage of pensions (66% in 2003 and 94% today) and trying to appear as "people who listen"... until that blunder by Cabandié ("K arrogance"). And symbols: 30 years of democracy and 3rd anniversary of Nestor Kirchner decease.

Anyway I'll start some weird maps from tomorrow onwards and some topics might be addressed.

[Hash]

Why has CFdK become so unpopular? It's probably rather obvious but I haven't followed this since 2011.

[Velasco]

Why has CFdK become so unpopular? It's probably rather obvious but I haven't followed this since 2011.

It might be long to explain, but I think the main reasons are the economy (basically inflation -plus falsified indexes,courtesy of Guillermo Moreno-, the currency and not so good perspectives if compared with the previous years, though unemployment remains low), an strange combination of arrogance and stubbornness in CFDK and her clique (her war with the Clarín media group is pointed by some as an example of the latter; a battle that she can't win, as the agrarian crisis in 2009), the endemic corruption (the axis of Carrió-Solanas campaign), insecurity (narco), and so on. However, I think many people bear in mind the country's recovery after the 2001 catastrophe or the social programs, and that's why in the beginning Massa wanted to be seen as a reformist instead of an opponent.

[Edu]

Where, on what party and Why?! :-)

I vote in the City of Buenos Aires and I voted for UNEN. I don't particularly like Pino Solanas or Elisa Carrio, but I'll vote anything as long as Filmus gets booted out of congress and the kirchnerists get as few seats in the house of deputies as possible.
I would have prefered Prat gay to be the candidate for senator, but there's not much I can do at this point

Unless you are a Massa supporter you might be disappointed one way or another However, the Kirchner clique had a strong disappointment in 2009 and an epic victory in 2011, so the outcome might not be conclusive and people will reclaim a real alternative in 2015. I bet that tomorrow everybody will say that they were victors.

Massa says that his thing is "centrist", "moderate" and "economically Keynesian"... I don't know what to think about the guy (I think he resembles EPN a bit). I hope that Macri doesn't win the three elections in the capital, though I'm not a Lilita's fan  

Thanks. I was lacking the time to update this properly. I said almost nothing on the main issues of the (insubstantial) campaign as inflation and insecurity. El País remarks today that Argentina has the second lowest murder rate in Latin America but it's the first country in "assaults" (I guess it means robberies and the like). Also some measures CFdK adopted to counteract her unpopularity after August as lowering income taxes, plus Scioli and Insaurralde reminding the achievements of the Kirchner era as the AUH and the increased coverage of pensions (66% in 2003 and 94% today) and trying to appear as "people who listen"... until that blunder by Cabandié ("K arrogance"). And symbols: 30 years of democracy and 3rd anniversary of Nestor Kirchner decease.

Anyway I'll start some weird maps from tomorrow onwards and some topics might be addressed.

Well, frankly I would actively support any non peronist party to win. Which means the socialists (in their various forms), the UCR and maybe even the PRO. Yeah, I know that those have their peronists elements (Especially the PRO) but whatever, in this country I'll take what I can get

I don't really think the situation nowadays is really comparable to the situation 4 years ago. In 2009 the kirchnerists had a lot of space to grow.
In 2009 they didn't control most of the media, the "Futbol para todos" thing was just starting, the "Asignación Universal por hijo" and other clientelist measures weren't fully in effect (If I remember correctly), Nestor Kirchner was alive and those little sh**ts from la Campora didn't really have that much power (I don't even remember if they were organized).

Nowadays they control most of the media, the Futbol para todos program is a pretty strong propaganda piece, lots of people are more dependant on the government than before, there was a sort of mass hysteria regarding Kirchner's death where a lot of people suddenly considered him Jesus Christ himself, etc.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it looks to me that after 2009 they still could do a lot of demagogic and power gathering decisions and increase their votes. Nowadays they already have all the power, I mean, what's next? what more can they do to get votes when they already did everything they could after 2009? not much room to maneuver, which is why after they lost in August they started admitting a lot of stuff that 3 month ago they were denying.

I think the only way they can recover is if the economy suddenly booms. Funny thing is that the economy right now isn't THAT bad and they are still having a pretty lackluster election.

This is not to say that they can't still win in 2015, especially considered the fractured opposition.

Massa is just another in the long list of politicians who have been flip-flopping between parties and ideologies for most of their careers, trying to figure out what they will do once in office is a pointless and cringe inducing exercise

Why has CFdK become so unpopular? It's probably rather obvious but I haven't followed this since 2011.

Velasco already made good points. People are utterly convinced that the government falsifies not only the inflation indexes but basically everything else (Unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc). There was a pretty big deal made in the past few years about something the government said which was that you could eat with 6 pesos per day (Which is between 0,50 - 1 dollar). That didn't really came out well, considering the inflation and the fact that most people in the country have to pay double that number to buy just a cup of coffee. People say that the poverty numbers are based on these types of estimations which dramatically (and artificially) lowers the poverty rate.

The restriction on buying dollars is another thing that has impacted negatively on the government. Because, despite what they say, not only rich people save their money in dollars. Practically every person that CAN save money, does so in dollars, which is a much more stable currency than our piece of crap. In 2011 the kirchnerists made an excellent election in part because of the support of the middle class. After all this (Which is still going on) I doubt the middle class will ever trust them again.

Corruption and insecurity are always issues but in the past few years the Kirchnerists government has been adamant in ignoring those things and it pissed a lot of people off.

The situation with the trains (The fact that they crash a little bit too often and the service is terrible) has also been a focus of unhappiness against the government (especially since they usually tried to ignore the problem as they always do).

The Kirchnerist youth group "La Campora" has also been gaining enormous power and frankly most people consider them to be extreme, obnoxious and petulant jerks. Their advance in every governmental agencies and beyond has been quite worrying for a lot of people.

And I didn't think it was possible, but the Kirchnerists have become even more intolerant to other peoples opinions, more arrogant and generally more batsh**t insane in their defence of Cristina and Nestor.

And let's be honest, It's been 10 years, there is bound to be some fatigue.






Anyway, I think we'll have official results in 2 and a half hours.

[Velasco]

Finally we have provisional results in the official website.

Segio Massa leads in Buenos Aires by a margin broader than 10% right now. FR 43.1% (16 seats); FPV  31.5% (11) ; FPCS 13.3% (5); FULT 5.4% (2); FIT 4.8% (1). Only 41.5% counted.

Mauricio Macri's PRO is leading in senators and deputies. Michetti leads by an 11% margin with Solanas coming second and Daniel Filmus in 3rd position (2.5% behind UNEN). Right now PRO 2 senators and UNEN 1. In deputies PRO 34.1%; UNEN 31.3%; FPV 22.6%; FIT 5.8%. It would be 5-5-3 as it stands now.

Córdoba is really fragmented. De la Sota's Union for Córdoba leads with 26% (3 deputies), UCR 22.4% (2); FPV 15.3% (2); PRO 14.6% (1) and FIT 7.7% (1).

Santa Fe: FPCS 43.5% (4); PRO 27.5% (3); FPV 22% (2).

Mendoza: UCR 46.8% (3); FPV 28.7% (2) and FIT at the gates with 13.4%.

Entre Ríos: FPV wins by a broad margin and gets 2 senators, with the minority seat going to Union for Entre Rios (PRO ally). Deputies: FPV 3; Union 1; UCR 1.

Salta: FPV gets 2 senators and the Salta's People Front wins the remaining. Deputies: Salta People's Front 20.9% (1 seat); Workers' Party 20.1% (1); PJ 18.3% (1); Salta Somos Todos 18.2%. The count is at 87%, by the moment Olmedo is out of the Senate and the prediction is coming true: Salta is Trotskyst!!!

Tucumán: FPV 46.7% (2 deputies); FPCS 34.8% (2). It's a good result for the center-left there, though the Tsar Alperovich won as it was expected.

In Chaco governor Capitanich is winning by a huge 22% margin, but the count is only at 44%.

In San Juan FPV defeated Compromiso Federal, the winner in the primaries. Governor Gioja's illness may be a factor.

UCR wins in Santa Cruz.

It's late here and I'm going to sleep. Tomorrow I'll see the count progress.

[njwes]

What's a good site to watch the results on?

[Edu]

What's a good site to watch the results on?

This is the official site, it's pretty good:
http://www.resultados.gob.ar/resultados/99/DDN99999.htm

95% of the votes are already reporting, so not much suspense remaining.
Don't know where you can get one in english.


So, the Kirchnerists went up a bit in some provinces, went down a bit in others. Of course they did pretty badly against Massa in the most important district in the country, but meh...more peronists

Basically a repeat of the primaries, boring.
At least I contributed to the ousting of Filmus

[Velasco]

Summary of results.

I'll use a colour code for more clarity. FPV and allies in blue, opposition and other peronists in green, center-left  in red (UCR) and purple (socialists, UNEN, others), PRO and allies in orange, Workers' Left Front and other left-wing in maroon.

Senate:

This election (24 seats): FPV and allies 14 seats (including FCS and People's Front in Santiago del Estero); PRO and allies 3 seats; UCR, FAP, UNEN 3 seats; MPN (Neuquen) 2 seats; People's Front (Salta) 1 seat; MPF (Tierra del Fuego) 1 seat.

Composition of the Senate (72 seats)

FPV and allies 40 (26 old+14 new); Center-Left 19 (16+3); Opposition Peronism 7 (6+1); PRO and allies 3 (0+3); Others 3 (0+3).

Source: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1633052-asi-esta-quedando-el-nuevo-congreso-mira-las-bancas-en-tiempo-real
 
Buenos Aires City: PRO 2 senators (39.25%); UNEN 1 senator (27.7%); FPV no seats (23.24%).

Chaco: FPV 2 senators (60.6%); Union for Chaco 1 senator (34.9%).

Entre Ríos: FPV 2 senators (46.2%); Union for Entre Rios 1 senator (25.7%); UCR no seats (19.8%).

Neuquén: Neuquen People's Movement 2 seats (41.9%); FPV 1 seat (20.6%); Civic Compromise (11.6%), Workers' Left Front (9.6%) and others no seats.

Río Negro: FPV 2 seats (49.95%); Broad Progressive Front 1 seat (26.3%); UCR (15.9%) and Workers' Party (7.9%) no seats.

Salta: FPV 2 seats (29.05%); Salta People's Front 1 seat (24.5%); Salta Somos Todos (22.8%), Workers' Party (17%) and PRS (6.7%) no seats.

Santiago del Estero: Civic Front 2 seats (48.25%); People's Front 1 seat (28.5%); FPCS (14.1%) and FPV (4.7%) no seats.

Tierra del Fuego: FPV 2 seats (34.4%); MPF 1 seat (22.4%); People's Party (15%) and others no seats.

Chamber of Deputies:

Estimation of seats in the official website (total: 257): FPV and allies 132; UCR, PS and allies 54; Frente Renovador and allies 19; PRO and allies 18; Others* 15; UNEN 7; FIT and allies 3; Union for Cordoba 3; FULT 3; MPN 3.

Composition according with La Nación: FPV and allies 130 (83 old+47 new); Center-Left 61 (25+36); Other Peronists 37 (11+26); PRO and allies 17 (5+12); Left 6 (3+3); Others 6 (3+3).

This election (total: 127 seats): FPV and allies 47; UCR, PS, UNEN and allies 36; Opposition Peronism 24; PRO and allies 14 (including 3 FR in Buenos Aires); FIT and allies 3; MPN 2; People's Solidarity Movement 1.

*Errors possible/likely. For example, 3 deputies elected in the FR list might sit with the PRO (totalling 20 seats in the parliamentary block), some Peronists might switch between the government and the opposition, etcetera.

Buenos Aires: Frente Renovador 16 seats (43.9%); FPV 12 (32.2%); FPCS 4 (11.8%); FULT 2 (5.5%); FIT 1 (5%).

*3 PRO deputies elected in the Massa list.

Buenos Aires City: PRO 5 (34.5%); UNEN 5 (32.2%); FPV 3 (21.6%); no seats for FIT (5.65%), Self-Determination and Freedom (3.8%) and Camino Popular (2.3%).

Catamarca: Civic and Social Front 2 deputies (40%); FPV 1 (38.7%); Third Position Front no seats (18.75%).

Córdoba: Union for Cordoba 3 seats (26.5%); UCR 3 (22.7%); FPV 2 (15.25%); PRO 1 (14.45%); no seats for FIT* (7.5%), Olga Riutort (4.6%), FPCS (3.7%) CC-ARI (3.1%) and other local party.

*The last seat is in dispute between UCR and the Workers' Left Front. 97.2% reported.

Corrientes: ECO 2 seats (47%); FPV 1 (42.7%); no seats for People's Change (10.3%).

Chaco: FPV 3 seats (59.3%); Union for Chaco 1 (36.2%) and no seats for the Workers' Party (4.5%).

Chubut: Chubut Action Party 2 seats (52.7%); no seats for FPV (23.2%) and UCR (12.7%).

Entre Ríos: FPV 3 seats (46.6%); Union for Entre Rios 1 (23.4%), UCR 1 (21.1%); no seats for FAP (5.85%) and New Left (3.05%).

Formosa: FPV 1 seat (60.1%); Broad Front 1 (36.65%); no seats for Workers' Party (3.2%).

Jujuy: Jujuy Front 2 seats (40.15%); FPV 1 (38.9%); no seats for FIT (7.2%) and some others.

La Pampa: Justicialist Party 1 seat (35.2%); FREPAM 1 (34.4%); Federal Proposal 1 (19.3%).

La Rioja: FPV 1 seat (47.05%); Civic Force 1 (46.5%).

Mendoza: UCR 3 seats (47.7%); FPV 1 (27.1%); FIT 1 (14%); no seats for PRO (5.2%), Compromiso Federal (3.9%) and FAP/CC-ARI (2%).

Misiones: FRC 2 seats (43.3%); UCR 1 (26.7%); no seats for the United Front (14.6%), FPV (11.2%) and PS (4.3%).

Neuquén: MPN 2 seats (40.2%); FPV 1 (21.3%); no seats for Civic Compromise (11.5%), FIT (9.9%), Free of the South (5.6%) and some others.

Río Negro: FPV 2 seats (50.8%); no seats for FAP (24.6%), UCR (16.1%) and the Workers' Party (8.6%).

Salta: People's Front 1 seat (20.6%); Workers' Party 1 (19.1%); Justicialist Party 1 (19.05%); no seats for Salta Somos Todos (18.1%), Party of the Victory (7.6%), PRS (6%) and some others.

San Juan: FPV 2 seats (55.4%); Compromiso Federal 1 (22.85%); no seats for Cruzada Renovadora (10.55%), UCR (4.5%) and some others.

San Luis: Compromiso Federal 2 seats (53.9%); FPCS 1 (23.6%); no seats for FPV (17.9%).

Santa Cruz: Union to Live Better 2 seats (42.1%); FPV 1 seat (24.7%); no seats for the Justicialist Party (20%) and the Workers' Party (11.1%).

Santa Fe: FPCS 4 seats (42.4%); PRO 3 (27.2%); FPV 2 (22.6%); no seats for FIT (2.6%) and some others.

Santiago del Estero: Civic Front 3 seats (76.4%); no seats for FPCS (14.3%), FPV (4.6%) and other two.

Tucumán: FPV 2 seats (46.9%); Civic and Social Agreement 2 (34.7%); no seats for Republican Force (8.2%) and some others.

Tierra del Fuego: FPV 1 seat (27.3%); People's Solidarity Movement 1 (21.2%); no seats for MPF (17.1%) and some others.

[Hash]

What happened to Victoria Donda?

[Edu]

What happened to Victoria Donda?

She was reelected to the house of deputies in 2011 for the Province of Buenos Aires, which means she is up for election in 2015. As far as I know she's still in congress.

This year she ran for senator in the City of Buenos Aires in the primaries as the 2nd senator (Prat Gay was the 1st), but they lost to Pino Solanas (Well, they ended up 3rd actually).

Don't ask me how she can hold office in one district and then run in another, I have no idea

[Velasco]

Well, frankly I would actively support any non peronist party to win. Which means the socialists (in their various forms), the UCR and maybe even the PRO. Yeah, I know that those have their peronists elements (Especially the PRO) but whatever, in this country I'll take what I can get

Just for the controversy, Edu. If I had to choose between Massa and Macri, I'd go with the first (I can't believe I'm writing this). It's not only that Macri is an "evil neoliberal" (ideological reasons). The PRO campaign has been impressive with these coloured balloons, the songs and choreographies... Shiny Happy People. Tacky . I know the others are not much better, but at least Massa has Roberto Lavagna on his side. Anyway, I didn't go crazy. I'm still loyal to the doctor Binner, the quiet man from Rosario and the only sane option

I don't really think the situation nowadays is really comparable to the situation 4 years ago. In 2009 the kirchnerists had a lot of space to grow.
In 2009 they didn't control most of the media, the "Futbol para todos" thing was just starting, the "Asignación Universal por hijo" and other clientelist measures weren't fully in effect (If I remember correctly), Nestor Kirchner was alive and those little sh**ts from la Campora didn't really have that much power (I don't even remember if they were organized).

Nowadays they control most of the media, the Futbol para todos program is a pretty strong propaganda piece, lots of people are more dependant on the government than before, there was a sort of mass hysteria regarding Kirchner's death where a lot of people suddenly considered him Jesus Christ himself, etc.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it looks to me that after 2009 they still could do a lot of demagogic and power gathering decisions and increase their votes. Nowadays they already have all the power, I mean, what's next? what more can they do to get votes when they already did everything they could after 2009? not much room to maneuver, which is why after they lost in August they started admitting a lot of stuff that 3 month ago they were denying.

I think the only way they can recover is if the economy suddenly booms. Funny thing is that the economy right now isn't THAT bad and they are still having a pretty lackluster election.

This is not to say that they can't still win in 2015, especially considered the fractured opposition.

Massa is just another in the long list of politicians who have been flip-flopping between parties and ideologies for most of their careers, trying to figure out what they will do once in office is a pointless and cringe inducing exercise

Aside populism and demagoguery (true), between 2009 and 2011 the economy boosted with that incredible growth in consumption and credits. Reasons enough to gather the support of the middle class. On the other hand, AUH and other measures may be clientelistic, but I'm sure that they contributed improve the living conditions of the lower classes, although I think they did little to fight the structural poverty (they were just the classic asistencialismo). I admit I know little on the subject, but in some places in the north poverty is still terrible and politicians like Alperovich seem to me like parasites.

I agree on Massa and La Cámpora. The first is a flip-flopper (as many other politicians there) and the troupe lead by Máximo Kirchner is a bunch of barras bravas (hooligans). However, some dissident peronists and other opposition leaders may be terrible as well.

Also, you are right, now it's totally different because the economic perspectives are far worse and, in addition, there isn't a clear successor. I think Daniel Scioli may be pretty damaged after losing by a 12% margin against Massa. Do you think Uribarri or Capitanich might be strong candidates? K supporters hate Buenos Aires governor and they will happy if they can get rid of him.

[DC Al Fine]

Can someone explain Peronism and why everyone dislikes it?

[RodPresident]

Uribarri would be a candidate to go if Kirchnerism wants to show image as populist, folksy, common-man campaign. He could do well at ''conurbano'' and at countryside.
Capitanich and Urtubey would be candidates to show turn to a moderate way against Massa's image.
FpV's problem is that Scioli still is very powerful to be refused as presidential candidate. He can maneuver into conurbano mayors and control a powerful machine. But Buenos Aires' governorship isn't good to get Presidency. Cafiero lost to Menem in Peronist primaries (1989), Duhalde lost (1999) and Ruckauf left boat to save his chances in 2003.
I still think that Macri wouldn't be able to win presidency. He would be tied to neoliberalism and some of his regional good results could be credited to local candidates and support from Peronist dissidentes.

[Velasco]

Can someone explain Peronism and why everyone dislikes it?

It's a good question (a tough one) and I was fearing it since the beginning . Some people say that you can't understand that mass movement (or collection of political franchises) if you are lacking of the indispensable Peronist DNA and, sometimes, it seems like Peronists are driven by a religious feeling. While I think an answer, lets start with the Wiki:

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I still think that Macri wouldn't be able to win presidency. He would be tied to neoliberalism and some of his regional good results could be credited to local candidates and support from Peronist dissidentes.

Yes, Scioli is too powerful to be put aside. However, they will have a Great Peronist Primary (likely without Massa) and someone like Uribarri might be the favourite for the K supporters. As for Macri and neoliberalism, I'm thinking about Menem (and Cavallo). Also, PRO performed well in its natural territory (CABA). Perhaps his main disadvantage is that he's not Peronist, isn't it?


Leading alliance in Buenos Aires City by commune. Deputies and Senators.

[FredLindq]

Why is UNEN generally separated from. UCR, PS and allies? I thought UNEN was an alliance of UCR and allies. Or is UNEN ARI and allies?

[RodPresident]

UNEN is a Buenos Aires' City coalition of UCR, CC (Carrió), PS (Solanas) and kirchnerist dissidents. Binner's PS is very irrelevant in Buenos Aires (city and province).
And I want to congratulate Argentinian people as its Supreme Court accepted constitutionality of Broadcasting Law. Clarin Miente!.
With constitutionality, Broadcasting Czar Martin Sabbatella gain strength in government. He can be a good candidate for Vice President or for Buenos Aires' governorship.

[Velasco]

Results in Buenos Aires province.

Sergio Massa had an impressive performance in Greater Buenos Aires, with highest records in Tigre (above 65%) and San Fernando (above 60%). In the metropolitan region FPV only retained Martín Insaurralde's fiefdom of Lomas de Zamora, La Matanza, Beraztegui and Florencio Varela. Mar del Plata switched from FPV to FR and Bahía Blanca from De Narváez to Massa (El Colorado got 19% and the FIT 8.6%). Old-school Peronist Momo Venegas won again in Necochea, but only received 1.6% in the province. FPCS won in 6 municipalities, mainly rural UCR strongholds.