A Problem

[JerryArkansas]

Ok, guys, I have a problem.  In redistircting for 2020, I am doing north carolina, and I have a district that is a tie.  It is 50/50, and in total votes, the democrat leads with 101 votes.  Now, what party would win this district in a normal election.

Here is the district.

the one in Red

[Miles]

A Blue Dog.

Harnett County is more Democratic downballot than it is in Presidential races. Cumberland and Johnston are on opposite sides of the spectrum, but Cumberland is growing faster and is trending D, so it should outweigh Johnston.

If possible, switch out those precicnts in southern Wake for all of Lee; it would look cleaner.

[JerryArkansas]

If possible, switch out those precicnts in southern Wake for all of Lee; it would look cleaner.

I did at first, but it would make the district to big.

[JerryArkansas]

Also, the 50/50 number is in the average votes, not the presidential vote

[Miles]

I still think it would elect an Etheridge-type.

Cumberland is trending D much quicker than Johnston is trending R. Harnett is trending slightly D.

[Miles]

FWIW, Ellmers would be the incumbent there. I doubt she could win a swingy district in a neutral year against a competent Democrat.

[JerryArkansas]

Miles, could you help me and tell me if some of the congressmen and women would win their new districts.

[Miles]

Miles, could you help me and tell me if some of the congressmen and women would win their new districts.

Yeah, just post the rest of what you've done.

If you really wanted to give Ellmers the shaft (and clean things up a bit in Wake too ) something like this would be decent:



The D average is 51.6%.

[JerryArkansas]

Ok, thanks.

Here is full state

[Miles]

Blue- Safe for any D
Purple- I'm assuming Jones will have retired by 2020, but this area is drifting R anyway. State Sen. Harry Brown (Onslow County) would be good here.
Salmon- Just by eyeballing it, it should be swingy to mildy D. Butterfield lives here, but would either run in CD1 or have retired by then.
Silver- If McIntyre is still around, this is beyond safe. If he retires, a more liberal D could probably even hold this.
Red- Blue Dog.
Green- Holding would live here, but couldn't win.
Orange- Safe D
Brown- Safe D
Yellow- Safe R
Teal- Safe R
Slate Blue/Cyan- I don't like where south Charlotte ended up. I'd switch around things between these two districts. Put south Charlotte with Union and/or Cabarrus and give Rowan and Iredell to CD8.
Pink- Safe R, though slowly trending D.
Chartreuse- With all of Buncombe included, Shuler should be able to win this seat back.

Try something like this:



This is actually what the 8th district looked like for most of the last century. This way, you can put south Charlotte with Cabarrus and western Union, which is a better CoI.

[jimrtex]

Miles, could you help me and tell me if some of the congressmen and women would win their new districts.

The first election will be in 2022, a non-presidential, non-gubernatorial year.  Democrats won't come out for a mere congressional race.

[Brittain33]

Miles, could you help me and tell me if some of the congressmen and women would win their new districts.

The first election will be in 2022, a non-presidential, non-gubernatorial year.  Democrats won't come out for a mere congressional race.

Remember me?