Georgian presidential election: surprisingly close, 2nd round: Nov 28

[DavidB.]

The presidential election in Georgia will take place on October 28th. Georgia has a semi-presidential system in which the presidency is mostly ceremonial. The country has been governed by Georgian Dream since 2012, who have gradually switched from a presidential system to a system in which the parliament holds political primacy.

Long story short: Salome Zurabishvili is an "independent" candidate, but she is supported by the governing Georgian Dream (which means she is not very likely to be "independent" from big boss Bidzina Ivanishvili at all) and will therefore win. GD tend to be around 50% so it is not unlikely that there will be a second round, in which United National Movement candidate Grigol Vashadze would lose to Zurabishvili. Polls tell a different story, according to which Zurabishvili would trail Vashadze, but are probably fake.

The current president Giorgi Margvelashvili was supported by GD too, but turned out to become the GD government's most powerful and internationally respected critic. There have been numerous events where Margvelashvili was essentially trashtalking the government's "close-minded" worldview and then Prime Minister Kvirikashvili had to speak after him, which could get heated at times. I'm pretty sure GD boss and the richest man of the country Bidzina Ivanishvili made certain that their candidate would be more in lockstep with his wishes this time around. In any case, due to GD's constitutional changes, the president will have fewer powers than before: she will be the head of state and have veto/pardoning powers, but not much more than that.

Salome Zurabishvili grew up in France, studied at Sciences Po Paris and was a diplomat in the French foreign service before becoming the Georgian Foreign Minister for a short time under Saakashvili's presidency - but apparently the good relationship with Saakashvili did not last. In 2008, Zurabishvili hilariously supported Patriarch Ilia's call to overhaul the political system, abolish the presidency and become a constitutional monarchy. She would (will) be the first female president of Georgia.

The parliament is going to move from Kutaisi to the old building in Tbilisi again. The move to Kutaisi was a typical Saakashvili thing, but most of political life continued to take place in Tbilisi and the moving around was a big hassle, especially because the road to Kutaisi is pretty mountainous and not exactly a top-notch highway.

[DavidB.]

Georgia's Media Commission (GNCC) has ordered opposition parties to stop airing attack ads against GD-backed candidate Zurabishvili. The Media Commission specifically attack opposition channel Rustavi 2 (pro-UNM), which often runs into legal trouble under all sorts of pretexts, for "disbalanced reporting":

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Worrying from a press freedom perspective, especially given the general atmosphere in which there is no level playing field due to the fact that GD a) has access to a lot more money than all of the opposition parties combined and b) controls the state institutions.

If GD remain in power for much longer, there is a real risk of democratic backsliding.

[DavidB.]

This happened today as well. Surprisingly, it seems as if this turned out to be a much closer race than anybody expected, though enthusiasm about Salome Zurabishvili was very low and she made a couple of painful gaffes (most notably about the 2008 war).

The preliminary result released by the Central Election Commission had GD-backed Zurabishvili at only 40.1% of the vote and UNM candidate Grigol Vashadze at 37.9% with 13% of all precincts counted. With 52% now counted, it is even closer: 38.8% for Zurabishvili and 37.7% for Vashadze.

In Tbilisi, Vashadze seems to have done very well in some of the more working-class boroughs, with clear victories in Samgori (42-30 for Vashadze), Isani (39-32) and Gldani (40.5-30). This is remarkable because such areas used to represent the core of the GD electorate in their victory over Saakashvili/UNM. Now, it is upscale areas like Vake (37-30 for Zurabishvili) and Saburtalo (36.5-32) that went for Zurabishvili with relatively comfortable margins - areas that used to be UNM. Second and third cities Kutaisi and Batumi were won by Vashadze by a mile. The first sign of an anti-GD revolt among "the many"?

[DavidB.]

39% for Zurabishvili, 37.2% for Vashadze with 73% of precincts in. This is likely going to be about the final result. Important to note that another 11% voted for the candidate nominated by European Georgia, a splitoff from UNM. These people are certainly much more likely to vote for Vashade than for Zurabishvili in the second round.

Perhaps GD have "slacked" in the campaign and will make more of an effort to have Zurabishvili elected by exerting pressure on their base, in which case a Zurabishvili victory would be a realistic scenario. But it's doubtful whether they want to make the effort, and the fact remains that most non-Zurabishvili voters essentially voted against GD more than they voted for their particular candidate. On the other hand, anti-UNM sentiment runs deep: many people dislike GD but still hate UNM. I think Vashadze should have the edge in the second round, but this election is going to be close.

[DavidB.]

With 99.5% of the precincts in, it's 38.6% for Zurabishvili, 37.7% for Vashadze, 10.6% for Bakradze.

Zurabishvili/GD voters:
- Public sector employees
- Well-to-do areas in cities
- Villages: quite a rural/urban gap in this election. Villages are less ideological and more likely to vote on clientelistic grounds: X is in government and gives my village Y, therefore I vote for X.
- Minorities (see remarks on clientelism).

Vashadze/UNM voters:
- Cities (not only Tbilisi, but also - and with even wider margins - Batumi, Kutaisi, Telavi, Gori)
- More specifically (but not solely): urban working-class and lower middle-class
- Mingrelia (has always been UNM stronghold)

[DavidB.]

Map (not by me, don't know by who):


GD strong in minority regions + relatively secluded rural areas + wine areas in Kakheti (dependent on exports to Russia - GD is the more pro-Russian party). UNM strong in the cities, Mingrelia, and the central corridor close to the new highway, which should be more prosperous. Don't know why UNM did so well in Northeastern Kakheti and my Georgian friends don't know either; not a big population either way.

[DavidB.]

European Georgia candidate Bakradze, who received 11% of the vote, has already endorsed Vashadze (UNM), as did a number of candidates of smaller parties.

Questions for the second round:

- Will Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia's richest man and owner of Georgian Dream, go wild and spend a big amount of money on gaffe machine Salome Zurabishvili? How far is he willing to go? In the first round, billboards were rather evenly distributed among the candidates. Unusual for Georgian Dream, because in the last local elections (2017) about 90% of election advertisement was in support of GD (and there was a lot of it, with huge billboards everywhere) and Kakha Kaladze's face was about as omnipresent in Tbilisi as Kim Jong Un's in Pyongyang.

- Once Salome opens her mouth people run to UNM, but UNM have Misha Saakashvili who stupidly thought recording a video on his potential return would be an amazing idea and probably already bought his plane ticket from the Netherlands to Georgia in the event Vashadze wins. Most Georgians still dislike or hate him and think GD are doing a better job than he did. The more he opens his mouth, and the more people realize UNM might get back into some position of power, the more apathetic people might actually turn out for GD/Salome. I have a couple of friends who abstained or wrote in something stupid in the first round and have no warm feelings for GD, but might vote for Salome at the end of the day out of sheer contempt for UNM. Some of them might not. But if enough people do it, that could be enough to be decisive in a close race. Vashadze should still be considered the favorite, though: Salome needs to turn out a lot of people to win, and it's doubtful she can do that. Difficult to assess though, given that there are barely any reliable opinion polls.

Personal note: I would be torn between casting a blank vote or holding my nose and pulling the lever for the UNM candidate. GD have become too complacent in power and the country isn't developing as quickly as it should be; economic growth is decent, but nothing compared to the Saakashvili years, and people continue to struggle to get by. I do not think a UNM government would actually be an improvement over a GD government and I also do not think Vashadze would necessarily make a better president than Zurabishvili. I don't actually think UNM should win a general election anymore. But GD need to understand that voters will actually hold them accountable and they can't just be in power as long as they like. Therefore this close election is very welcome. They need to be waken up by voters who tell them: "here's one last chance, don't mess it up." The ideal result would be a 51-49 victory by Zurabishvili, in my opinion.

[PSOL]

Other than the war, why don’t Georgians like Saakashvili.

[DavidB.]

Other than the war, why don’t Georgians like Saakashvili.

Because he turned into an authoritarian who ruthlessly had people arrested for small, non-violent offenses and put them in jail. In these jails, abuse and torture took place, of which footage was ultimately leaked, which was the main catalyst (but really the straw that broke the camel's back) that led to UNM's election defeat in 2012.

Saakashvili was always more of a guy with a master plan than a genuine democrat, and his illiberal tendencies became more pronounced after he had been in office for a longer time. It is clear he is a genius with a Messiah complex who doesn't like it if things don't go his way. Generally the type of person who might be doing a couple of very good things when he gets to power, but afterwards goes crazy and should be removed from power. That's basically what happened.

Of course you already alluded to it, but the 2008 war is relevant too. Russia, together with Turkey, remains one of Georgia's most important trading partners and the war, which was probably avoidable, left a lot of scars and a number of lasting problems.

[DavidB.]

Seems like the 2nd round will be held on November 28 after all. Ridiculous that this date is moved around all the time. Should have been fixed before the first round

[DavidB.]

This will be tomorrow. No reliable polls and a lot could happen, from a narrow Zurabishvili victory to a relatively large Vashadze victory (57-43-ish). Some dude running a website named pollster.ge predicts a 52-48 Zurabishvili victory with a 65% chance of Zurabishvili winning. Doesn't sound unlikely, but I'd still take it with a ton of salt. I have always expected some anti-UNM voters to turn out for the 2nd round and make it closer than expected. My Georgian friends now expect GD to win too. But that's what everyone thought in the first round too...

GD have campaigned aggressively, with GD PM Mamuka Bakhtadze promising to write off 1.5 billion GEL = 570 million dollars in loans to about 600.000 people. This would be done with the help of the Cartu Foundation owned by Bidzina Ivanishvili, who completely coincidentally also owns Georgian Dream. Blatant vote-buying, in other words.

Also, the number of registered voters has suddenly increased. Should not even be possible between the first and secound round imo, but it happened. GD's explanation is that many people have requested IDs, without which you cannot vote. The opposition claims GD has issued fake IDs so that people can vote multiple times. Could also be possible that GD mayors have simply given away free "modern" IDs, but that would not explain the sudden increase in registered voters in Tbilisi (hard to pull it off without people noticing it there). All very fishy, and it doesn't look good on GD: it shows to which lengths they're willing to go to stay in power.

[DavidB.]

At 5PM a respectable 47.3% had voted, compared to 38.2% in the first round at that hour. At that point turnout had already exceeded the total first round turnout figure of 46.7% and voting will continue till 8PM (which is to say: for 20 more minutes). Probably good news for GD.

[DavidB.]

Exit poll: Zurabishvili/GD 55% Vashadze/UNM 45%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Thanks for the updates! Looks like I'd support the European Georgia candidate in the 1st round, and hold my nose for the UNM in the 2nd because of the reasons you mentioned.

Other than the war, why don’t Georgians like Saakashvili.

Because he turned into an authoritarian who ruthlessly had people arrested for small, non-violent offenses and put them in jail. In these jails, abuse and torture took place, of which footage was ultimately leaked, which was the main catalyst (but really the straw that broke the camel's back) that led to UNM's election defeat in 2012.

He also chewed his own tie on live TV

[DavidB.]

Vashadze refuses to concede yet (reasonable); Saakashvili says result is illegitimate and calls for mass protests, snap parliamentary elections (absurd). Georgia deserves a better opposition. GD could have been voted out - but not by a UNM opponent.

[DavidB.]

Gallup exit poll even has it 58/42. Just read that Saakashvili made an unfortunate antisemitic statement last week. GD hired campaign strategist Moshe Klughaft and Saakashvili noted that "GD paid more than 1.2 million to some Jewish swindler Moshe." Yeah, nope.

[DavidB.]

Total turnout 56.2%.

[PSOL]

Thanks for the updates DavidB. Quick question, why is the exit polls so low on UNM? Can you give updates on the campaigning after the first round?

[DavidB.]

Thanks for the updates DavidB. Quick question, why is the exit polls so low on UNM? Can you give updates on the campaigning after the first round?

I did so here.

Final result: 59.5% for Zurabishvili, 40.5% for Vashadze. Not even close and a massive underperformance by Vashadze.

Vashadze and the EG candidate got 775k votes in the first round, Vashadze got only 780k in the second round. Meanwhile, Zurabishvili almost doubled her vote total, from 615k in the first round to 1.14 million in the runoff.

All districts were won by Zurabishvili except for Telavi and Rustavi; UNM tend to do well in the latter and Vashadze won the former with a pretty big margin in the 1st round, though I'm not sure why. 2nd city Kutaisi was also close: Zurabishvili won there only 51.3-48.7. Some districts in Mingrelia (such as Zugdidi and Senaki), traditionally UNM strongholds, were very close too. Vashadze definitely underperformed in Tbilisi, where all districts went to Zurabishvili, most with a very big margin.

GD's unpopularity caused the first round upset, but Saakashvili got too confident: the vast majority of Georgians prefer GD over him. At the same time, UNM and Saakashvili are still too popular for any opposition party to take over UNM's place as main opposition party. So paradoxically it is really Saakashvili who keeps GD in power.

The combination of Saakashvili's presence and promise to come back to Georgia + GD "owner" Bidzina's remarkable (if unsurprising) effort to have voters come out against UNM (more so than for GD, arguably...) in the runoff was what caused this result.

International observers have been more critical of this election and its campaign than in most previous recent elections. GD's promise to write off people's loans amounts to blatant vote buying, and GD have used even more administrative resources than before, blurring the separation between party and state. I still think something fishy has been going on with the sudden increase of registered voters too. And both sides have engaged in pretty bad rhetoric.

The relatively large win by Zurabishvili probably takes away a lot of the shock effect GD experienced in the first round, which is not positive, because GD should be less complacent in government.