Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[Tender Branson]

Well how terribly depressing. But then again, it's Switzerland, so...

Not really depressing if you see it from a left-wing perspective, like the Ticino Green Party (which contrary to the Swiss-Greens supported this initiative).

In recent years, a HUGE amount of immigrants from Italy settled in wealthy Ticino, where the average wage of a retail employee is about 3000€ a month vs. 800€ a month in Italy.

So, where do you rather want to work if you speak Italian ? In the place where you earn 800€ a month, or earn 3000€ a month ?

The answer is easy.

The massive influx of Italians to Ticino leads to massive wage-dumping, because the Italians moving in also work for 1500€, instead of the 3000€ that the Swiss workers earn.

This is a neo-liberal tendency that needs to be stopped !

Also, there are massive problems with traffic and rents (which are increasing heavily due to the immigrants looking for apartments).

...

I think the free-movement in the EU should definitely have it's limits to not put a strain on local communities. Growth above what is necessary for the economy to do well should be restricted. It would be better if there's a well-working quota system that limits immigration.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Wouldn't a minimum wage be the better instrument to solve the wage-dumping problem, if it really exists? So it is just another addition to the perception that a majority of the swiss people is spured on by xenophobic paranoids. And xenophobic paranoids is most probably part of this story as well, though seeing it as an anti-growth-of-all-costs-referendum would be more comfortable and some of the yes-votes come from that perspective which would, of course, a more comfortable way to look at it.

[Cranberry]

What you are recalling, Tender Branson, isn't only happening in Ticino.
Thousands of workers in tourism in the Western Austrian states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg work in the Siwtzerland, I know some of them as well.
Interestingly however the Graubündener district bordering Tyrol (the easternmost of all Switzerland) voted "NO". How would you explain that? I always thought the extremely rural Graubünden as being extremely conservative.

[EPG]

Surely lefties should like a policy that increases low-paid workers' wages from €800 to €1500.

[ZuWo]

Clearly, the EU is not at all happy.

Some kind of rhetorical sabber-rattling from the European Commission and certain European politicians could be expected because the result of the Swiss vote clearly hit a nerve in the EU; the idea of restricting immigration is hotly debated in various countries all across the continent and some national governments are obviously under pressure to take action as well.

Of course there were a couple of asinine reactions - Ralf Stegner, the insufferable SPD vice chairman is a prominent example - but at the end of the day that doesn't matter. Neither the European Union nor Switzerland are interested in escalating the situation so I am convinced that a common solution will be found.

I also fail to see why the amendment to the Constitution the Swiss people approved of is considered that controversial. Indeed, the first clause of the new constitutional article simply states the main goal, which is:

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In English this means that Switzerland shall be able to control immigration independently. I realize that this runs counter to the ideological underpinnings of the European Union but why shouldn't a sovereign country be able to do that?

[Beezer]

Yeah, the news media has presented the result as something along the lines of "Swiss voted to build wall to keep out migrants...but only after expelling everyone with a foreign sounding name." The matter at hand - that all the Swiss want to do is set their own immigration policies - appears to have been missed by most journalists.

[Franknburger]

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In English this means that Switzerland shall be able to control immigration independently. I realize that this runs counter to the ideological underpinnings of the European Union but why shouldn't a sovereign country be able to do that?

That constitutional is clause is of course self-evident. However, Switzerland has, in all autonomy, signed an accord with the EU that guarantees EU citizens the right to take residence in Switzerland (and vice-versa) - an accord that was confirmed in a 2009 referendum.

As such, I wonder about the following:
1. How does Swiss constitutional law deal with the obvious conflict between (a) international accords (b) the 2009 referendum on unlimited right of EU citizens to take residence in Switzerland and (c) last weekend's referendum? I guess we are first of all looking forward towards a lengthy procedure by the Swiss High Court (Bundesgericht) with pretty uncertain outcome.

2. I furthermore understand that the referendum requires the government to within the coming three years re-negotiate all international agreements that that include foreigners' rights to unlimited residence. That is of course first of all directed against the agreement with the EU. However, it should also concern a number of other agreements, including those related to international organisations with headquarters in Switzerland (WHO, International Red Cross, possibly FIFA, etc.). Sounds like a lot of fun ahead (and might be a golden opportunity to get rid of Sepp Blatter once and for all) ...

3. Unless the Swiss government unilaterally cancels all a/m agreements (which I am pretty sure it will not do, as, e.g., the EU agreement also covers all services including financial services), I am rather certain that a lot of negotiation will still be on-going in three years from now. In that case, the Bundesrat shall have to decree implementation procedures for the prescribed quota system. My understanding, however, is that such a decree needs to respect international agreements (Art. 190 of the Swiss Constitution - in the case of a law, that would be different). This would mean that no immigration quota may be set for EU nationals as long as the current agreement with the EU hasn't been altered. The EU just can sit back and relax (except for new members such as Croatia) ...

Bottom line - aside from job creation in the Ministry of Foreign affairs, the referendum will remain practically meaningless, but has damaged Switzerland's international image. Good work, dear neighbours (and a remarkable lack of legalistic craftsmanship for a country otherwise known for precision) !

[ZuWo]

Switzerland is hardly interested in cancelling all of the existing agreements. At the same time, the Federal Council has made clear that the new constitutional clause will be implemented according to the wishes of the majority of the people. But this process will take some time; the Swiss Parliament has to write a bill based on the new constitutional article and this bill may then be challenged by means of a federal referendum.
 
It seems that the only way this dilemma can be resolved is, indeed, by entening new negotiations with the European Union, which, to put it mildly, will be challenging.
The President of the Swiss Confederation who also happens to be Foreign Minister, Didier Burkhalter (FDP), reacted in a surprisingly laid-back when he was interviewed after the result of the vote had become clear. So while the Federal Council as well as the entire Swiss diplomatic corps will have a lot of work to do in the next years they seem fairly confident that they can overcome the major obstacles. Indeed, it may be a good idea to try to get the backing of European governments that are also becoming increasingly sceptical of the principle of free movement of persons; Britain under the current government may turn out to be a valuable partner in this respect. 

The general question of how the Swiss High Court deals with the potential conflict between international accords and Swiss law is still, by and large, unclear. There has been a lot of debate on this issue during the last years and the right is tinkering with the idea of launching an initiative titled "Schweizer Recht vor internationalem Recht", which would mean that Swiss law would automatically be given precedence over international law. This is clearly a hot button issue which won't go away very soon.

[Franknburger]

It seems that the only way this dilemma can be resolved is, indeed, by entening new negotiations with the European Union, which, to put it mildly, will be challenging.

Not only challenging, but in all likelihood (knowing the EU's decision making process) also taking a lot of time..

Renegotiation of the EU agreement is of course legitimate. The question is whether Switzerland has been well advised to put itself under pressure, and which deals it will have to offer for the EU to eventually accept residence quotas. Bank secrecy, interest rate taxation, and concessions on cargo transit are coming to mind here - all issues that bear the potential for a re-negotiated agreement to fail in a subsequent referendum. Asides, while the EU might accept some kind of migration quota, it will definitely not accept the discrimination as per the new Art. 121 a Nr. 3 ("Vorrang für Schweizerinnen und Schweizer") of the constitution.

The right is tinkering with the idea of launching an initiative titled "Schweizer Recht vor internationalem Recht", which would mean that Swiss law would automatically be given precedence over international law. This is clearly a hot button issue which won't go away very soon.

That would amount to a cultural revolution in the country that invented institutionalised internationalism and once hosted the Council of Nations ("Völkerbund"). So far, Switzerland hasn't fared too badly as the world's neutral arbiter and safe haven. But, maybe, turning nationalist is the fastest way to settle the migration issue. Germany would gladly take up Nestle and Novartis (plus their employees), Luxemburg and Liechtenstein should not mind hosting a few more banks, and I guess Geneva would declare independence in order to keep the international organisations there. After all, holidays in Switzerland might become affordable again to a humble German (and accommodation abundant)...

[ZuWo]

Some results of important local elections that also took place at the weekend:

Zurich

In the election for City Council, the executive branch of the city government, the center-right coalition made up of the parties SVP, FDP and CVP managed to win an additional seat at the expense of the Green Party. However, the left still occupies 6 of 9 seats.

Full results:

Türler Andres (FDP) 56'907 votes
Mauch Corine (SP) 55'646
Leupi Daniel (GP) 52'744
Lauber Gerold (CVP) 52'157
Odermatt André (SP) 48'143
Nielsen Claudia (SP) 44'258
Wolff Richard (AL) 42'249
Leutenegger Filippo (FDP) 42'193
Golta Raphael (SP) 40'178
------------------------------------------------
Knauss Markus (GP) 35'330
Fehr Düsel Nina (SVP) 27'696
Scheck Roland (SVP) 23'585
Dubno Samuel (GLP) 21'896
Wobmann Walter (SD) 5'139
Keel Peter (Pirate Party) 3'919

Mayor Corine Mauch (SP) won re-election against her FDP-challenger Filippo Leutenegger with 48'608 to 32'276 votes.

The election for City Parliament produced mixed results. While the AL and FDP gained seats, the SP, SVP, CVP and EVP* lost a bit. The Swiss Democrats (SD) failed to overcome the 5%-threshold in any of the 9 electoral districts and will thus no longer be represented in parliament.

*As I was informed by the electoral commission today, the fate of the EVP hinges on a recount that is going to take place on Thursday. According to the preliminary results the party received 5.00% in their best district. If the recount results in the EVP losing a single vote in that district, the party will not have met the 5%-threshold and will lose all of its 3 seats. I will be part of the team that does the recount so I will let you know what's the case on Thursday!

Full results:

SP: 29,19% - 38 seats (-1)
SVP: 17,34% - 22 (-2)
FDP: 16,03% - 21 (+3)
GP: 10,57% - 14 (-)
GLP: 10,19% - 13 (-)
AL: 6,46% - 8 (+3)
CVP: 4,63% - 6 (-1)
EVP: 2,48% - 3 (-1)

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/politik_u_recht/abstimmungen_u_wahlen/naechste_termine/140209.html

[ZuWo]

The President of the Swiss Confederation who also happens to be Foreign Minister, Didier Burkhalter (FDP), reacted in a surprisingly laid-back when he was interviewed after the result of the vote had become clear.

After having read this article in German* I think I have to retract my statement.

A short summary for the English speakers who read this thread: President Burkhalter seems to be quite irritated about the result of the vote. After an extraordinary conference with the parliamentary commitee of foreign affairs he only responded to journalists in French. When a Swiss-German journalist asked him to repeat his statement in German, Burkhalter told the journalist in German that it was useful for journalists who work in Bern, i.e. the capital of Switzerland, to know "the language of Molière". He then went on to add that the French-speaking part of Switzerland, which voted against the mass immigration initiative quite clearly, was a minority that needed to be respected. After all, he claimed, French-speaking Switzerland was the most dynamic region in the country.

*An article on the same topic in French.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I guess the majority doesn't need to be respected. This sort of petulant whining is highly unbecoming of such a high-ranking official.

[MaxQue]

     I guess the majority doesn't need to be respected. This sort of petulant whining is highly unbecoming of such a high-ranking official.

The issue is than the economical consequences in Western Switzerland would be terrible. Should we destroy the economy of French Switzerland because rural Germans aren't liking immigrants? There is limit to the majority rule.

You're Californian, you should understand that, the various initiatives almost drove California to bankrumpcy.

[ZuWo]

     I guess the majority doesn't need to be respected. This sort of petulant whining is highly unbecoming of such a high-ranking official.

The issue is than the economical consequences in Western Switzerland would be terrible. Should we destroy the economy of French Switzerland because rural Germans aren't liking immigrants? There is limit to the majority rule.

You're Californian, you should understand that, the various initiatives almost drove California to bankrumpcy.

Well, if the adoption of the initiative has any negative impacts on the economy - and I very much doubt that - the whole country and not just the French-speaking part will be affected.
Also, the suggestion that the initiative passed because of "rural Germans" is overly simplistic. It is clear that the initiative was a lot more popular in German-speaking Switzerland than in the west of the country but we have to bear in mind that the canton with the highest share of yes votes was Ticino. Additionally, while I am aware that it has become popular to bash Switzerland as a xenophobic hellhole we ought to be more realistic; the huge majority of those who supported the initiative did so because they think that population growth has reached unhealthy levels during the recent years. We obviously need immigrants but annual net immigration of 1% of the total population is hardly sustainable in the long run.

[ZuWo]

The canton of Glarus elected a new government on Sunday. The Swiss People's Party won a seat in the executive branch while the Social Democrats lost their only representative:

Bettiga Andrea (FDP, incumbent) - 9'321
Widmer Rolf (CVP, incumbent) - 8'900
Marti Röbi (BDP, incumbent) 7'519
Lienhard Marianne (SVP) - 7'373
Mühlemann Benjamin (FDP) - 6'303
-----------------------------------------------
Bickel Christine (SP, incumbent) - 5'689

http://www.gl.ch/xml_1/internet/de/intro.cfm

[Franknburger]

ZuWo - would you mind commenting a bit more on the regional distribution of yes/no votes on the immigration initiative? Looking at the map that Tender has posted
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172799.msg4049928#msg4049928

it for example seems to me that, aside from Ticino, it has rather been suburban than rural Germans voting yes. Some more rural parts of French-speaking Switzerland appear to also have narrowly supported the initiative. What may explain the no vote in Graubünden? Which role plays tourism, etc.

Swiss politics is now obviously facing a PR problem, namely countering the perception of "xenophobic rural Germans questioning Switzerland's integration into the European and Global economies". I would appreciate if you from time to time could update us on how leading politicians, especially those from the conservative spectrum, deal with this PR problem.

The SVP's rise is becoming obvious, but, when looking at the FPÖ in Austria, in line with a general regional trend. Can the same be said for French and Italian speaking Switzerland, i.e., are Swiss variants of FN and Lega Nord on the rise there as well? Is there a long-term risk of "Belgianisation" of Swiss politics?
 

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I guess the majority doesn't need to be respected. This sort of petulant whining is highly unbecoming of such a high-ranking official.

The issue is than the economical consequences in Western Switzerland would be terrible. Should we destroy the economy of French Switzerland because rural Germans aren't liking immigrants? There is limit to the majority rule.

You're Californian, you should understand that, the various initiatives almost drove California to bankrumpcy.

     If they feel that the current system is insufficient to protect them from the whims of majority rule, then they should raise that as an issue. These sorts of antics are not productive.

[ZuWo]

ZuWo - would you mind commenting a bit more on the regional distribution of yes/no votes on the immigration initiative? Looking at the map that Tender has posted
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172799.msg4049928#msg4049928

it for example seems to me that, aside from Ticino, it has rather been suburban than rural Germans voting yes. Some more rural parts of French-speaking Switzerland appear to also have narrowly supported the initiative. What may explain the no vote in Graubünden? Which role plays tourism, etc.

Swiss politics is now obviously facing a PR problem, namely countering the perception of "xenophobic rural Germans questioning Switzerland's integration into the European and Global economies". I would appreciate if you from time to time could update us on how leading politicians, especially those from the conservative spectrum, deal with this PR problem.

The SVP's rise is becoming obvious, but, when looking at the FPÖ in Austria, in line with a general regional trend. Can the same be said for French and Italian speaking Switzerland, i.e., are Swiss variants of FN and Lega Nord on the rise there as well? Is there a long-term risk of "Belgianisation" of Swiss politics?
 

You raise a couple of interesting issues, I will try to answer the questions as well as I can.

1. The rural/urban divide obviously plays a crucial role in explaining the results of the vote. In general, the more rural and sparsely populated a region, the more likely it supported the initiative. There are other important factors at play, though:

- As has already been stated the French-speaking part was a lot more sceptical of the proposal than the rest of the country but that's not very surprising; the west of Switzerland is notorious for being more receptive towards the idea of European integration. Likewise, Ticino has a long tradition of being the canton which is strongly opposed to the very same concept.
- Regions with a high share of wealthy and well-educated people also turned out to be opposed to the initiative; this explains the voting patterns along the lake of Zurich and the canton of Zug, which, even though these places are more rural/suburban than urban, voted against it.
- The left and the center tried to turn this vote into a vote on the SVP. They often referred to the initiative as the "SVP-Abschottungsinitiative" and hoped to sway as many voters as possible this way. While this strategy didn't work at the national level, it probably had an impact in regions where the left and/or the centrist parties are traditionally strong. Indeed, this may help to explain the result of Graubünden which seems strange at first glance because it's a very rural canton. However, fear of negative economic consequences certainly influenced the vote in places where the tourism industry is relevant as well.

2. The image problem you mention isn't talked about all that much in Switzerland. When the issue comes up the Swiss right likes to stress that it's only the foreign political elite which disapproves of some of the recent political developments in the country but that many people in other European countries admire Switzerland for its relative political independence and the courage to take unconvential political decisions. The Swiss right also claims that a majority of people in other countries would vote the same way if they had a system of direct democracy in place.

3. There is a discernible trend towards strong populist regional parties, but that's only the case in the French-speaking and Italian-speaking part of the country. The most prominent examples are the "Lega die Ticinesi" and the "Mouvement Citoyens Romands". I'm hesitant to call them right-wing because they are considerably more economically left-wing than the SVP. There is a high degree of cooperation between these regional parties, however. For instance, both the Lega and the MCR worked together to get the mass immigration initiative passed. Since these regional parties seek to distinguis themselves from the neighboring countries, i.e. Italy and France, they are strongly committed to Switzerland. Thus, I am not afraid of a political development similar to that in Belgium.

[ZuWo]

*As I was informed by the electoral commission today, the fate of the EVP hinges on a recount that is going to take place on Thursday. According to the preliminary results the party received 5.00% in their best district. If the recount results in the EVP losing a single vote in that district, the party will not have met the 5%-threshold and will lose all of its 3 seats. I will be part of the team that does the recount so I will let you know what's the case on Thursday!

We finished the recount of the votes of the Electoral District 9 in a bit less than four hours. We made sure to double check everything so as to guarantee a result which is 100% reliable. The leader of the EVP parliamentary group and a couple of local journalists were also present and closely followed our work. All of the ballots I checked were correct but I have no clue what the final result of the recount will be. Indeed, the final results will be published tomorrow afternoon. It is clear, however, that if the EVP only loses a single vote compared to the preliminary results the party will have 4.994% instead of the necessary 5% and will lose its three seats in parliament. If that's the case the SP, SVP and AL will each gain an additional seat.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Talk about the importance of voting. That's pretty intense. A difference of one vote would decide the fate of three seats.

[ZuWo]

     Talk about the importance of voting. That's pretty intense. A difference of one vote would decide the fate of three seats.

It's not the first time this has happened in the last years. In the 2001 election for City Council in Winterthur, the biggest town in the canton of Zurich behind Zurich City, SP-candidate Pearl Pedergnana defeated SVP-challenger Jürg Stahl by a single vote. The final result was 13,395 to 13,394 votes after the second recount.

Here's an article with some photographs taken during yesterday's recount. I didn't even notice that there was a photographer who took pictures so I was surprised this morning when I found myself on the bottom left corner of picture number 3 and again on picture 4.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Felt the need to say this...

lol switzerland lol

[ZuWo]

^
I would be glad if this thread (and the "International Elections" board in general) could remain a place of serious discussion. There are more than enough troll posts in other parts of the forum.


The result of the recount has been published: The EVP has received 36 fewer votes than the preliminary vote tally showed. Thus, the party has failed to re-enter parliament. The three EVP seats have been given to the SP, SVP and AL, which means that the three left-wing parties SP, GP and AL now hold 62 of 125 seats in the City Parliament.

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/service/medien/medienmitteilungen/2014/140214a.html

[Franknburger]

^
I would be glad if this thread (and the "International Elections" board in general) could remain a place of serious discussion. There are more than enough troll posts in other parts of the forum.


The result of the recount has been published: The EVP has received 36 fewer votes than the preliminary vote tally showed. Thus, the party has failed to re-enter parliament. The three EVP seats have been given to the SP, SVP and AL, which means that the three left-wing parties SP, GP and AL now hold 62 of 125 seats in the City Parliament.

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/service/medien/medienmitteilungen/2014/140214a.html

My respect to you devoting your time to making democracy work, ZuWo!

Today, our local newspaper (Lübecker Nachrichten) reported that Wolfgang Kubicki, Deputy head of the German FDP, has announced that he will not (as all the years before) go to Zermatt for winter sports holidays this year in reaction to the Swiss plebiscite. Not a headline news, but a longer article and a comment on page 2. So far on "There is no Swiss PR problem".

The Linke is calling for re-introducing controls on capital transfers to and from Switzerland (including border controls for unusual amounts of cash carried with) if Switzerland should officially put free migration in question.

[ZuWo]

My respect to you devoting your time to making democracy work, ZuWo!

Today, our local newspaper (Lübecker Nachrichten) reported that Wolfgang Kubicki, Deputy head of the German FDP, has announced that he will not (as all the years before) go to Zermatt for winter sports holidays this year in reaction to the Swiss plebiscite. Not a headline news, but a longer article and a comment on page 2. So far on "There is no Swiss PR problem".

The Linke is calling for re-introducing controls on capital transfers to and from Switzerland (including border controls for unusual amounts of cash carried with) if Switzerland should officially put free migration in question.

Actually, not a lot of attention is paid to the way politicians in other countries react to the result of the Swiss vote. In fact, the focus of the mainstream press and most Swiss politicians lies on the upcoming negotiations with the European Union.
Therefore, the leaders of the SVP, SP, FDP, CVP and BDP as well as four members of the Federal Council met today and came up with a roadmap for the upcoming months. First of all, there was general agreement that all of the existing accords between Switzerland and the European Union with the exception of the free movement of persons agreement should not be altered. Since the outcome of last week's vote conflicts with the free movement of persons agreement, the parties acknowledged the necessity of re-negotiations with the European Union. For that purpose, the Federal Council is going to work out a concept for the implementation of the initiative until June and is planning to present a concrete bill until the end of the year.
In the meantime, individual members of the Federal Council will begin exploratory talks ("Sondierungsgespräche") with ministers of various European countries.

That's more or less the current state of affairs. At least for now there seems to be a surprising extent of consensus between the leaders of the Swiss parties. Let's wait and see whether they will be able to keep this up.