Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[MaxQue]

Is Léger is polling often in Switzerland? I mean, it's a Québec-based pollster! Did they bought a local pollster?

[ZuWo]

Is Léger is polling often in Switzerland? I mean, it's a Québec-based pollster! Did they bought a local pollster?

Léger in Switzerland is basically the former Isopublic company. Isopublic used to be the oldest Swiss polling firm and joined the Canadian Léger group in 2011. They still did many polls with their old name in the last three years but now they have apparently completely switched to the Léger brand.

[SNJ1985]

I sure wish that EDU percentage was higher!

The SVP is alright, though.

[ZuWo]

I sure wish that EDU percentage was higher!

The SVP is alright, though.

The two EDU strongholds are Bern and Zurich, where the party holds a decent number of seats in the respective cantonal parliaments. However, the party is currently without representation at the federal level and it would surprise me if that were to change in October.

As for the election to the Federal Council it seems increasingly likely that Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf (BDP) is going to run for a third term. Unless both the SVP and FDP gain seats and the conservative wing of the CVP is strengthened she will be safe. Thus, if the SVP finally want their second seat back they will have to attack one of the sitting FDP incumbents (probably Johann Schneider-Ammann because Didier Burkhalter is way too popular), a scenario SVP leaders have consistently ruled out so far.

[SNJ1985]

An article about the small parties' efforts going into the next federal election...

http://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/kleinparteien-wollen-zurueck-ins-bundeshaus-1.18454723

[ZuWo]

Today's announcement of the National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) to end its efforts to stabilize the exchange rate between the Euro and the Swiss Franc at a ratio of 1 to 1.20 has sent shockwaves through the country. The Swiss stock market (SMI) has plummeted and fell by about 10%, and both the Euro and the US Dollar have lost a considerable share of their value in relation to the Swiss Franc; 1 Euro now has the value of approximately 1 Swiss Franc, and 1 Dollar is worth just 88 Rappen.

The SNB implemented their policy to stabilize the Euro-Swiss Franc exchange rate in 2011 in order to save the Swiss export industry from becoming uncompetitive in the European markets. It was clear that the measure would have to be lifted at some point but today's move by the SNB caught everyone by surprise. Analysts now fear that Switzerland's growth will suffer as a consequence of todays' decision or that we could even experience a recession in the short term.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-national-bank-scraps-exchange-rate-ceiling/41217364

[ZuWo]

The only bright spot about today's news from a consumer perspective is that it makes it a lot more attractive to buy euros. Indeed, that's what I actually wanted to do later today or tomorrow but according to the latest news a few banks have already started to make it impossible - at least temporarily - to withdraw euros from their cash machines.

[Tender Branson]

Franken bringt Wien 300 Millionen Schulden

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://derstandard.at/2000010465968/Franken-bringt-Wien-300-Millionen-Schulden

Thanks, Switzerland !

[SNJ1985]

I wonder how this will affect the election.

[ZuWo]

I wonder how this will affect the election.

I guess that's impossible to say at this point. The SNB is politically independent. While its headquarter is literally next door to the Bundeshaus (Federal Palace) no one, not even high-ranking members of the Swiss government, knew of the SNB's decsion in advance. That's why it's going to be hard for any party to put a particular political spin on yesterday's events.
Also, since it could take a while until all of this has a tangible impact on the economy the October election may actually be too early to judge.

On a positive note, it's now possible again to get euros from all cash machines. However, some shops are currently refusing to accept euros.

[SNJ1985]

Thanks for the info.

[Tender Branson]

A new poll shows that a vast majority of Swiss people support gay marriage:

71% Yes
23% No

77% Yes - Women
64% Yes - Men

Support by party:



http://www.sonntagszeitung.ch/read/sz_22_02_2015/nachrichten/CVP-Waehler-stehen-hinter-der-Homo-Ehe-28263

...

ZuWo, is there a chance this will end up in a referendum soon ? The article mentions that some committee in the Nationalrat has voted in favour of a change in the constitution.

[ZuWo]

Looking at the way political processes work it would be a stretch to say there's going to be a referendum on gay marriage soon, it's probably going to be a matter of a few years. I guess both chambers of parliament will approve of the proposal, though the yes majority in the Council of States can be expected to be a lot smaller since the less populated and more conservative cantons have more seats there compared to the National Council. After that, certain groups within the SVP, CVP as well as the smaller conservative parties will likely gather signatures to get a federal referendum on the issue.

Civil unions for homosexual couple have already been in place for ten years and as most surveys are showing the idea that two men or two women should be able to enter a relationship recognized by the state is not controversial. The question whether or not they should also be allowed to adopt children is much more disputed, however, and since the issues of gay marriage and adoption rights are closely related the outcome of the potential referendum might be closer than the polls seem to be suggesting at this point.

[ZuWo]

Zurich, the largest Swiss canton with nearly 1.5 million inhabitants and therefore a good indicator of national trends, elected a new parliament (Kantonsrat) and government (Regierungsrat) yesterday. The outcome of the elections can only be described as a triumphant resurrection of the FDP and a disaster for the green movement.

Kantonsrat (legislative body, 180 seats)

SVP - 30% (2011: 29.6%), 54 seats (2011: 54)
SP - 19.7% (19.3%), 36 (35)
FDP - 17.3% (12.9%), 31 (23)
GLP - 7.6% (10.3%), 14 (19)
GP - 7.2% (10.6%), 13 (19)
CVP - 4.9% (4.9%), 9 (9)
EVP - 4.3% (3.8%), 8 (7)
AL - 3% (1.6%), 5 (3)
EDU - 2.7% (2.6%), 5 (5)
BDP - 2.6% (3.5%), 5 (6)

Balance of power

The right (SVP, FDP, EDU): 50% (45%), 90 (82)

The center (CVP, BDP, GLP, EVP): 19.4% (22.4%), 36 (41)

The left (SP, GP, AL): 29.9% (31.5%), 54 (57)


Regierungsrat (executive body, 7 members)  

Thomas Heiniger (FDP - incumbent), 150'557 votes (ELECTED)
Mario Fehr (SP - incumbent), 146'307 (ELECTED)
Ernst Stocker (SVP - incumbent), 145'205 (ELECTED)
Markus Kägi (SVP - incumbent), 136'563 (ELECTED)
Silvia Steiner (CVP), 118'477 (ELECTED)
Carmen Walker Späh (FDP), 116'058 (ELECTED)
Jacqueline Fehr (SP), 115'618 (ELECTED)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Martin Graf (GP - incumbent), 109'625 (not re-elected)
etc.

Balance of power

The right (SVP, FDP): 4 seats (2011: 4)

The center (CVP): 1 (0)

The left (SP, GP): 2 (3)

Overall turnout: 32.7% (Kantonsrat), 31.3% (Regierungsrat)

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/wahlen_2015.html

[Tender Branson]

Elections in the Italian-speaking Ticino (Tessin) today.

ZuWo will probably know more about it.

[ZuWo]

Indeed, I was just going to make a new post.

The people of Ticino elect 5 members of the Consiglio di Stato (executive branch of government) as well as 90 members of the Gran Consiglio (parliament) today.

Also, there are municipial elections in 45 communes in Geneva.

Both cantons stand out because there are major right-wing and economically populist parties that are actually more powerful than the Swiss People's Party (SVP). In Ticino the Lega die Ticinesi has a voter share of 23% while the SVP is a minor party with just 5.5%. In Geneva, the Mouvement citoyens genevois received almost 20% of the votes at the most recent cantonal elections in 2013 and the SVP only a little over 10.
Both Ticino and Geneva are considerably more left-wing on economic issues than Switzerland as a whole. At the same time, there is a non-negligible number of anti-immigration voters in both cantons.

http://www3.ti.ch/elezioni/Cantonali2015/

https://www.ge.ch/elections/20150419/

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'm surprised that SVP is even really active in Ticino and Geneva, considering that I would think of it as a Swiss German movement. Is that not how it is perceived in Switzerland?

[ZuWo]

    I'm surprised that SVP is even really active in Ticino and Geneva, considering that I would think of it as a Swiss German movement. Is that not how it is perceived in Switzerland?

The main SVP strongholds are obviously in the rural and suburban areas of German-speaking Switzerland and nearly all of the party's leading politicians at the federal level are Swiss German. However, the Swiss People's Party, which is called Union démocratique du centre (UDC) in the French-speaking cantons, has been growing in the rest of Switzerland as well. In fact, the UDC received between 15% and 23% of the vote in every canton of Western Switzerland at the last federal election in 2011. Indeed, the political priorities of the party, i.e. a strong focus on national sovereignty and reduced immigration, are considered important issues by many people in the entire country.

As for the elections in Ticino things have remained remarkably stable. The executive branch still consists of two Lega members and one FDP, SP and CVP officeholder each.

The composition of the cantonal parliament hasn't changed a lot, either:

FDP - 26.3% (+1.6%), 24 seats (+1)
Lega - 24.2% (+1.4%), 22 (+1)
CVP - 18.6% (-1.9%), 17 (-2)
SP - 14.6% (-0.5%), 13 (-1)
GP - 6% (-1.6%), 6 (-1)
SVP - 5.8% (+0.3%), 5 (0)
Communist Party - 1.5% (+0.2%), 2 (+1)
Mountain Party - 1.2% (+0.4%), 1 (+1)

[ZuWo]

With merely one month to go until election day the parties are gearing up for the final stretch of the campaign. Unfortunately, voting intention polls are notoriously rare in Switzerland but two of them have been published during the last weeks. The most recent poll published by the newspaper 20 Minuten indicates that the "right" (a term often used for the SVP and FDP) is going to make gains at the expense of the center and the left:




Likewise, a previously conducted survey by gfs.bern, which was released by the Swiss broadcaster SRF, shows gains for both the SVP and FDP. In contrast to the 20-Minuten poll, however, seems to be on the rise as well.

 

[rob in cal]

   Time for my obligatory immigration related election question.  Have the parties come up with very pronounced stances about taking any migrants?  Not being in the EU gives the Swiss some cover to avoid the issue perhaps? 

[DavidB.]

  Time for my obligatory immigration related election question.  Have the parties come up with very pronounced stances about taking any migrants?  Not being in the EU gives the Swiss some cover to avoid the issue perhaps?  

I believe, but ZuWo will undoubtedly be more knowledgeable on this, that there is still talk on the "restricting mass immigration" referendum, to which a majority agreed. The question is then to what extent this should be implemented if it clashes with Switzerland's alleged interests as to relations with the EU, international organizations etc. Not sure if this is connected to the issue of the migrant crisis though.

For the fans: here is the Swiss version of the "Voting Compass", called SmartVote: https://www.smartvote.ch/15_ch_nr/election/index. Available in English.

The results were not entirely clear. I don't understand why there were more lists from the same party. My result when I picked the highest-ranking list of any party in Bern:

SVP 83.1%
Schweizer Demokraten 62.7%
FDP 54.2%
BDP 44.5%
Green Liberals 29.4%
Pirates 24.9%
SP 21.2%
Green 9.3%

I would vote for SVP/UDC.

[SNJ1985]

   Time for my obligatory immigration related election question.  Have the parties come up with very pronounced stances about taking any migrants?  Not being in the EU gives the Swiss some cover to avoid the issue perhaps? 

The SVP wants the military placed on the border:

http://neurope.eu/article/switzerlands-support-for-asylum-seekers-is-generous-but-hardly-uncontested/

[politicus]

@ZuWo: Reposting this gay marriage related post here. How do you see the situation. Does it have a chance? And am I right about how the constitutional change mechanism works?

Actually I'd wager that Switzerland would pass gay marriage via referendum by a surprisingly healthy margin. Yes I know it's Switzerland, but I think opinions in Western Europe have changed so dramatically I imagine even in the most conservative of countries it would grab a majority.

There were two polls conducted in February. One showing 62% of women and 46% of men in favour (with a straight Yes/No question) and one with 71% favourable or somewhat favourable towards gay marriage.
It seems the gay community thinks a referendum is too costly and demanding. They prefer  parliament to agree on a constitutional amendment to grant legal protection for all couples, independent of their sexual identity. The Green Liberals have gotten it through committee in the National Council and will submit the proposal to the Council of States in November. So the process is already under way. I guess it could happen in 2016. You need a majority in both houses incl. a majority of cantons in the Council of States.

There are 46 councillors. 40 from 20 full cantons and 6 from 6 half cantons (Obwalden, Nidwalden, Basel-Stadt, Basel-Landschaft, Appenzell Ausserrhoden and Appenzell Innerrhoden), so 24 councillors representing 14 cantons will be required. So the small Conservative cantons will be the problen.

(though I might be wrong about the details)

[SNJ1985]

For the fans: here is the Swiss version of the "Voting Compass", called SmartVote: https://www.smartvote.ch/15_ch_nr/election/index. Available in English.

The results were not entirely clear. I don't understand why there were more lists from the same party. My result when I picked the highest-ranking list of any party in Bern:

SVP 83.1%
Schweizer Demokraten 62.7%
FDP 54.2%
BDP 44.5%
Green Liberals 29.4%
Pirates 24.9%
SP 21.2%
Green 9.3%

I would vote for SVP/UDC.

Here are my results. When I was asked to pick a constituency, I picked Zürich.

1. EDU Senioren: 74.7%
2. EDU: 73.6%
3. Junge EDU: 71.9%
4. SVP: 64.3%
5. Junge SVP: 61.6%
6. Schweizer Demokraten: 58.2%
7. Stopp Stau und Blitzterror - die Autofahrer Liste: 55.8%
8. ECOPOP: 53.8%
9. EVP: 52.5%
10. Junge EVP: 50.3%
11. Jungsfreisinnige Kanton Zürich: 48.6%
12. Tierpartei Schweiz: 46.6%
13. Junge CVP/CVP 60+: 46.4%
14. CVP: 45.1%
15. up! Unabhängigkeitspartei: 44.1%
16. BDP: 41.0%
17. FDP: 39.0%
18. GLP, Unternehmerinnen und Unternehmer: 34.6%
19. DU Die Unpolitischen: 34.5%
20. Junge GLP: 32.7%
21. Piratenpartei: 31.6%
22. Grüne, MigrantInnen und Second@s: 26.1%
23. GLP: 26.0%
24. Alternative Linke, Partei der Arbeit + Kommunistische Jugend: 25.4%
25. Kunst + Politik: 24.0%
26. Alternative Linke, AL - Alternative Liste: 22.9%
27. Junge Grüne: 22.7%
28. Grüne: 22.4%
29. SP: 19.5%
30. JUSO: 16.8%

[ZuWo]

(I will respond to the questions raised and points made above later but from what I have seen what has been written seems fairly accurate.)

Tagesanzeiger has published a "state poll" for the canton of Zurich that was conducted by the same company which is also responsible for the 20 Minuten poll, Sotomo.

The focus of the poll was on the Ständeratswahl (roughly the equivalent of the US Senate) and shows that the one seat formerly held by a GLP incumbent might switch to the Social Democrats while the FDP could retain its seat:
 


It's a three-horse race, though, as the SVP candidate still has a shot as well. Vogt is a highly unusual SVP candidate because he comes across as a moderate, is an academic (professor of law), lives in the left-liberal city of Zurich and is openly homosexual. His name recognition is quite low at this point, but the SVP hopes to attract new segments of the electorate thanks to his candidacy.

Jositsch's lead can be explained both by the SP-candidate's perceived moderation and enormous name recognition. As yet another professor of law and as someone who has been in politics for many years he's had a high number of TV and other media appearances. He's generally seen as representing the right-wing of the Social Democrats, not only when it comes to law-and-order issues but also on fiscal policy.

The FDP has traditionally held one of the two seats so Noser's good showing is not surprising. FDP candidates typically attract voters from both the right and the left, and Noser, who emphasizes business-friendly as well as socially liberal views, does a decent job in this respect. It also helps that Noser is well-known in Zurich.