Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

The Tagesanzeiger poll also contains voting intention figures regarding the Nationalratswahl (National Council) which basically mirror the trends outlined by the previously mentioned federal poll:

[ZuWo]

Time for my obligatory immigration related election question.  Have the parties come up with very pronounced stances about taking any migrants?  Not being in the EU gives the Swiss some cover to avoid the issue perhaps?  

Switzerland is in the center of Europe and directly affected by the current mass movement of refugees so there's no way for the parties to avoid the issue.

In fact, Switzerland is doing quite a lot to mitigate the effects of the refugee crisis. The Federal Council has just decided to spend 70 million Swiss Francs in direct humanitarian aid in Syria and its neighboring countries on top of the 200 million which have already been spent during the last four years. Additionally, millions of Swiss Francs have been collected by charity organizations within a time span of just the last few days.
Refugees have been received since the beginning of the current crisis and the federal government has made clear that Switzerland will participate in a future distribution system which will be agreed upon by the member states of the European Union. The figure that has been floated so far is 4% -  this means that Switzerland is ready to take in 4% of all Syrian, Iraqi etc. refugees coming to Europe.

Of course, the views of the parties differ. While there is general consensus that refugees fleeing from war and terror should be received at all costs, there is a sense of uneasiness when it comes to taking in a huge number of migrants who have come to Europe for economic reasons. Several parties, not just the SVP but also the FDP and CVP as the two most notable examples, are calling for a tougher stance on the latter group of migrants.

[DavidB.]

Bump! This election will take place in a few days. Does any of the Swiss posters (ZuWo?) know what's going on here?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's not often I say this about any election, but who cares? The Swiss have an interesting system, but really make it boring from an electoral observers POV. Hmph.

[DavidB.]

It's not often I say this about any election, but who cares? The Swiss have an interesting system, but really make it boring from an electoral observers POV. Hmph.

You are entirely right Theoretically I like the Swiss political system very much, but from an observer's perspective Dutch volatility, for instance, is much more interesting Still, the tendency to see Switzerland as somewhat of a "black spot" on the European map just because of its peculiarities seems wrong and I'm genuinely interested in getting to know more about Swiss electoral patterns, for which this election seems to be a good opportunity.

[SNJ1985]

Low turnout is expected for tomorrow's election:

http://www.thelocal.ch/20151016/low-voter-turnout-predicted-once-again

[Tender Branson]

First exit polls show a Rechtsrückli (shift to the Right).

SVP and FDP gain a lot.

[DavidB.]

Switzerland continues to be awesome

An overview of the national and cantonal results: http://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/uebersicht-der-nationalen-resultate-ld.2561

[ZuWo]

Sorry for not having posted in this thead for ages. I've been terribly busy lately and been counting votes from yesterday to this afternoon.

Anyway, Tender's right: The right (SVP and FDP) are poised to win in a landslide ("landslide" in Swiss Terms, for what it's worth).

In the Nationalrat, the SVP is expected to gain around 10 seats according to the results that have come in so far. The FDP is going to win a handful as well.

The losers of the election are the Greens, the Green-Liberals and the centrist parties CVP and BDP. The SP is going to remain stable.

It's too early to say what the composition of the Ständerat is going to be like because there will be runoff elections in many cantons.

For an overview of the results, have a look at this website:

https://www.ch.ch/en/elections2015/

[DavidB.]

I haven't found an exit poll yet. Do you have one?

[ZuWo]

I haven't found an exit poll yet. Do you have one?

The first (and only) federal exit poll will be released by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (tv channel SRF 1) at 7pm.

[ZuWo]

Terrible news of the Social Democrats: The leader of their parliamentary group (Andy Tschümperlin, Schwyz) has apparently lost his seat. It's another SVP gain.

[DavidB.]

The first (and only) federal exit poll will be released by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (tv channel SRF 1) at 7pm.

Ah, okay, thanks for clearing that up. Tender spoke about exit polls indicating a rightward shift, that's why I asked.

[ZuWo]

The first (and only) federal exit poll will be released by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (tv channel SRF 1) at 7pm.

Ah, okay, thanks for clearing that up. Tender spoke about exit polls indicating a rightward shift, that's why I asked.

I guess Tender referred to cantonal exit polls, which have been published since the early afternoon. They can be seen here:

http://www.teletext.ch/SRF1/725

[ZuWo]

Exit poll results:

SVP: 28%, 65 seats (+11)
SP: 18.6%, 44 (-2)
FDP: 16.4%, 33 (+3)
CVP: 12.6%, 28 (-1)
GP: 7.8%, 10 (-5)
BDP: 4.6%, 8 (-1)
GLP: 4.7%, 6 (-6)
others: 4.4%, 6 (+1)

[Nortexius]

Exit poll results:

SVP: 28%, 65 seats (+11)
SP: 18.6%, 44 (-2)
FDP: 16.4%, 33 (+3)
CVP: 12.6%, 28 (-1)
GP: 7.8%, 10 (-5)
BDP: 4.6%, 8 (-1)
GLP: 4.7%, 6 (-6)
others: 4.4%, 6 (+1)

65 SVP seats + 2 Lega seats + 1 Geneva citizens movement seat  + 33 FDP seats = Rightwing majority

Does this mean SVP are getting their second seat in the federal council?

[ZuWo]

Exit poll results:

SVP: 28%, 65 seats (+11)
SP: 18.6%, 44 (-2)
FDP: 16.4%, 33 (+3)
CVP: 12.6%, 28 (-1)
GP: 7.8%, 10 (-5)
BDP: 4.6%, 8 (-1)
GLP: 4.7%, 6 (-6)
others: 4.4%, 6 (+1)

65 SVP seats + 2 Lega seats + 1 Geneva citizens movement seat  + 33 FDP seats = Rightwing majority

Does this mean SVP are getting their second seat in the federal council?

That's very likely now, yes.

New projection. Same number of seats, but changes in the vote shares:

SVP: 29.5%, 65 seats (+11)
SP: 18.9%, 44 (-2)
FDP: 16.3%, 33 (+3)
CVP: 12.1%, 28 (-1)
GP: 6.9%, 10 (-5)
BDP: 4.1%, 8 (-1)
GLP: 4.6%, 6 (-6)
others: 6 (+1)

http://www.srf.ch/news/wahlen/resultate

[Leftbehind]

The Swiss left has historically achieved 30%, give or take 2pp, so once you add in AL this would probably go down as the left's worst post-war result, beating 1967 & 1991. Although when you're talking by 1% in a country dominated by the right, it's hard to care.

[tpfkaw]

Switzerland is remarkable in many ways, but its political stability is certainly one of them. An election in which no party gains or loses more than 2.8% of the popular vote is a "political earthquake." The last time big brother Germany had an election in which no party gained or lost more than 2.8% was in 1907.

[rob in cal]

   I hope to travel to Europe in a few years, and might want to spend some time in Switzerland (loved it the last time I was there, but that was in a previous century).  If my visit coincided with a referendum campaign, would it be very noticeable to an outsider? I wouldn't plan on just being in the mountainous areas, but also in the towns and cities as well, and would love to get a feel for a national referenda in campaign in action.  I do speak German so that would help in my efforts.

[ZuWo]

On Sunday the last two run-off elections for the remaining few seats in the Council of States will be held. After that the definite makeup of the new parliament will finally be clear.

As for the executive branch, following the retirement of Mrs. Widmer-Schlumpf (member of the SVP spin-off BDP) the parties of the center ceded their claim to a second seat and vowed to elect a second SVP representative. Therefore, the next Federal Council is going to have 2 SVP, 2 FDP, 1 CVP and 2 SP members again.

Today, after months of conducting a careful selection process and a meeting that took more than five hours, the SVP parliamentary group decided they will put forward three candidacies for the open seat, one from each major part of the country:



From left to right: Thomas Aeschi (36), Norman Gobbi (38) and Guy Parmelin (56).

Each of the three candidates would have been considered outsiders merely a few weeks ago, but their nomination demonstrates the SVP leadership's intention to position the party as a valid political force in all parts of the country and of all generations.

If my visit coincided with a referendum campaign, would it be very noticeable to an outsider?

Only if you're a political geek and speak the local language. Referendum campaigns mostly take place on TV, in the press and on posters.

[palandio]

First round: Parmelin 90, Aeschi 61, Gobbi 50, Hurter (SVP, but not an official candidate) 22, Amherd (CVP) 16, others 4, votes blanches 2.

Second round: Parmelin 117, Aeschi 78, Gobbi 30, others 14, votes blanches 5.

Third round: Parmelin 138, Aeschi 88, Gobbi 11, votes blanches 6.

Parmelin elected.

[ZuWo]

Guy Parmelin is the most moderate of the three SVP candidates and comes across as laid-back and likeable even to political foes so it isn't a huge surprise that he was elected after all. The SVP still has room to grow in the Suisse romande so having a francophone member of government may be a great asset to the party.

A few days before the election took place Parmelin attracted some attention because of his non-existing English skills. When a journalist asked him a question in English Parmelin literally replied "I can English understand mais je préfère répondre en français pour être plus précis".

After all is said and done, the Federal Council now consists of 2 SVP, 2 FDP, 2 SP members and 1 CVP member again. It is remarkable that three of the seven current Federal Councillors come from the French-speaking part of Switzerland while the Italian-speaking Swiss continue to wait for a representative of their own. It used to be widely expected that the longest-serving Federal Councillor Doris Leuthard (CVP) will be replaced by Filippo Lombardi once she steps down. However, it can hardly be expected that yet another non-Swiss German candidate could be elected as long as there are three francophone incumbents - this would render the clear majority of the Swiss population a minority in the federal government, which is unthinkable!

[tpfkaw]

A few days before the election took place Parmelin attracted some attention because of his non-existing English skills. When a journalist asked him a question in English Parmelin literally replied "I can English understand mais je préfère répondre en français pour être plus précis".

Was that a foreign journalist, or has English become the lingua franca in Switzerland? When I visited German-speaking Switzerland, I usually started conversations in French for practice, but a lot of the time people people switched to English. Was that just because of my American accent or because I need to work on my French skills a little more?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Referenda in Fenruary:

• A Christian Democrat proposal to define  marriage as a union between a man and a woman
• a SPP proposal to expel foreign crims. (this already is law, but SPP want to emphasis these crims will be pushed out really hard
• A Young Socialist proposal to "end speculation on food"
• A transport proposal about reconstructing the world's fourth largest tunnel

In June there are five proposed referenda, most interestingly about a Basic Income proposal that I assume stands no chance of passing (this is Switzerland, after all)