Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[Tender Branson]

On September 22, Switzerland will vote on abolishing the military draft.

Currently though, 2/3 of voters favor the draft while just 1/3 want it abolished.

ZuWo, do you think turnout will be higher than turnout in the Austrian draft referendum in Jan. ?

Turnout was 52.4%

[Tender Branson]

Detailed info:

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https://www.ch.ch/en/initiative-to-abolish-military-service

[Tender Branson]

I think if we want to get a clue about how the Swiss will vote on Sept. 22, we just have to take a look at the Vorarlberg-result in the Austrian draft referendum: 66% pro-draft, 34% against the draft.

I think the Swiss-German regions bordering Vorarlberg will be as high as 80% in support, while the French-speaking parts will be more like 50-50, but probably still slightly in favor of keeping the draft. The Zürich-region should be about 60% pro-draft.

ZuWo, will you vote in this referendum and if yes - how will you vote ?

[Tender Branson]

Zuwo, would you mind explaining the differences between the parties?

The 4 center-right parties support keeping the draft, while the Social Democrats and Greens want it abolished.

In the last poll from this week, 57% want to keep the draft with 35% opposed.

Again, voters of the 4 right-wing parties are strongly in favor of the draft - SP/Green voters opposed.

[Tender Branson]

New poll by GFS Bern:

63% keep draft
31% abolish draft



By party:



By age:



red = keep draft
green = abolish draft

http://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/abstimmungen/abstimmungen/aufhebung-der-wehrpflicht/klares-ja-zur-wehrpflicht-zeichnet-sich-ab

[Tender Branson]

I thought Switzerland would back the draft by a similar margin like Vorarlberg did.

But they back it even more ...

[Tender Branson]

Maps of the referendum yesterday:

Do you want to abolish the military draft ?

73.2% No
26.8% Yes

Clickable maps:

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/17/03/blank/key/2013/031.html

Yes-vote by Canton:



Yes-vote by District:



Alternative graphic by Canton (Yes-vote):

[Tender Branson]

Les Franches-Montagnes was the only district in Switzerland that voted to abolish the draft.

Obersimmental-Saanen was the district that voted most strongly to keep the draft with 88.5%

[Tender Branson]

I assume than French is the local language given the names EàG and the MCG.

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[Tender Branson]

When will we get the "exit polls" ?

[Tender Branson]

Hmm.

The 1:12 initiative sounded like a good idea (without knowing the details).

Considering that it wants to limit the salaries of CEOs and managers to be no more than 12-times the minimum wage, that sounds rather fair.

The minium wage in most Swiss sectors is something like 2000-3000€ a month, no ?

Even if you work in retail, you get at least 2500€ (3500$) a month, right ?

So, 30.000€ (42.000$) a month for a manager wouldn't be that Socialist ...

[Tender Branson]

ZuWo, how will you vote in the "mass immigration" referendum ?

[Tender Branson]

Current polling for the February referendums:

[Tender Branson]

It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

2 factors I guess:

* Austria is a country where 50% of voting-age persons read a xenophobic/right-wing/populist newspaper each day, the "Kronen Zeitung" - that often backed the FPÖ and their campaigns.

* Austria never experienced left-wing phenomenons like the RAF and dealt with it accordingly. Also, the media in Germany "writes down" right wing people, and is much more successful than Austrian media. Also, Austrian far right politicians know exactly what they can say and what not.

[Tender Branson]

The "mass immigration" referendum could turn out to be quite close.

I'd probably vote "Yes" on this and against the Green-Party line, because I think that the current 1.2% growth rate in Switzerland is counter-productive. I think population growth rates above 0.5% are not benefitting the economy anymore, and rather creates problems like big rent-increases in cities where the immigrants move to, because the speed of building new apartments is slower than the overall population growth and because of further "Zersiedelung" of Switzerland (basically more suburbs being created at the disadvantage of the environment).

[Tender Branson]

High turnout is usually good news for the "against mass immigration" side.

Polls are closing in about 30 minutes, right ?

I predict:

55-45 against mass immigration (big swing towards this side in the final weeks)

59-41 abortion should remain publicly funded (about what the polls said)

60-40 in favor of the rail initiative (about what the polls said)

[Tender Branson]

Not bad results if true ...

[Tender Branson]

The first projection for the entire Kanton Zürich released by the Department of Statistics of Zurich looks as follows:

54% no to the mass immigration initiative

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/urnengang.html

This is going to be very close.

Interesting ...

Of those counted, 57% are Yes.

But the projection for all is only 46% Yes.

Will Zurich City have such a big impact ?

[Tender Branson]

Any trends from other cantons ?

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, this seems to become really tight Switzerland-wide.

[Tender Branson]

Do you know what the initiative with the most turnout was so far in Swiss history ?

Currently about 58-60% turnout in Zürich and Wallis.

[Tender Branson]

SRF will have 1st Switzerland-wide prediction out soon ...

[Tender Branson]

Live results and analysis by the Swiss broadcaster SRF can be followed here:

http://www.srf.ch/livestream/player/srf-1

You can only watch this with a Swiss IP ...

[Tender Branson]

55% Yes in Aargau ?

Then it looks like that the initiative will likely fail.

Aargau is usually about 6-7% more to the right than Switzerland.

[Tender Branson]

Currently I predict for Switzerland as a whole:

51.5% - Pro mass-immigration
48.5% - Against mass-immigration