Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

There have been quite a few interesting and surprising votes and elections in Switzerland lately so I decided to create a thread for this.

Let's start with the most important recent cantonal elections.

- In March, a new parliament and canton government were elected in Valais.

The results were as follows:

Parliament:

CVP/CSP 61 seats (-7)
FDP 28 (+/-0)
SVP 21 seats (+9)
Left Alliance 20 (-2)

Canton Government (second ballot):

Oskar Freysinger (SVP - new) 56.913 votes
Waber-Kalbermatten Esther (SP - incumbent) 48.602 votes
Cina Jean-Michel (CVP - incumbent) 46.369 votes
Melly Jacques (CVP - incumbent) 42.862 votes
Tornay Maurice (CVP - incumbent) 41.792 votes
Bender Léonard (FDP - new) 29.874 votes - NOT ELECTED

Seat changes: FDP -1, SVP +1

http://www.vs.ch/Navig/droitspolitiques.asp?MenuID=4340&Language=fr

- In April a special election for a seat in the 5-member canton government was held in Basel-Landschaft since Adrian Ballmer, one of two FDP members in the canton government, retired. The FDP decided to throw their support behind a SVP candidacy, and subsequently an election took place between Thomas Weber (SVP) and Eric Nussbaumer (SP).

Second ballot:

Thomas Weber (SVP) 36.797 votes - ELECTED
Eric Nussbaumer (SP) 32.176 votes

Seat changes: FDP -1, SVP +1

http://www.baselland.ch/main_wahlen-htm.273417.0.html

- Elections for cantonal parliament and the 5-member canton government were held in Neuchâtel yesterday.  

Full results of the elections for parliament aren't available yet due to technical problems and because of the fact that several candidates appear to have the same number of votes. The electoral authorities of Neuchâtel released the following message last night:

"Attention : les résultats de l'élection au Grand Conseil contiennent certaines égalités de suffrages. C'est notamment le cas entre MM. G. Tarantino et L. Godet du district de Boudry.

Il appartiendra donc à la commission chargée du tirage au sort de départager les candidats. Cette commission n'ayant pu se réunir en raison de l'heure tardive des derniers résultats procédera à cette opération dans la journée de lundi."

Canton government (first ballot):

Absolute majority: 22.311 votes

Kurth Laurent (SP - incumbent) 21.351 votes
Karakash Jean-Nathanaël (SP - new) 20.422 votes
Perrin Yvan (SVP - new) 18.698 votes
Maire-Hefti Monika (SP - new) 17.440 votes
Ribaux Alain (FDP - new)16.987 votes
Herrmann Patrick (Greens - new) 15.363  votes
Grosjean Thierry (FDP - incumbent) 14.055 votes
Humbert Fred Alain Nago (POP (Left) - new) 13.904 votes
Gnaegi Philippe (FDP - incumbent) 12.767 votes

Preliminary seat changes: FDP -2, SP +1, SVP +1

No candidate has been elected on the first ballot, but the voters of Neuchâtel appear to be massively fed up with the current FDP-dominated government.

http://www.ne.ch/neat/site/jsp/rubrique/rubrique.jsp?StyleType=bleu&CatId=4954

[ZuWo]

Who do you usually vote for Zuwo?

Usually for the smaller evangelical parties, the FDP or SVP.

[ZuWo]

The results of the election for parliament in Neuchâtel have been published:

FDP/PLR: 35 seats (-6)
SP/PS: 33 (-3)
SVP/UDC: 20 (+6)
Greens: 12 (-2)
POP/SolidaritéS: 9 (-1)
Green Liberals/Vert'libéraux: 5 (+5)
CVP/PDC: 1 (+1)

While the left has emerged victorious from the elections for canton government, the left parties have lost their majority in parliament. The FDP can be considered the clear loser of the cantonal elections, while the SVP managed to improve its position.

http://www.ne.ch/neat/site/jsp/rubrique/rubrique.jsp?StyleType=bleu&CatId=4954

[ZuWo]

Who is in the Valais Left Alliance - SP, GPS & CSP?

SP, Greens, CSP Lower Valais and a movement called "Entremont Autrement". The CSP Upper Valais is in an alliance with the CVP.

[ZuWo]

On the local level there was an interesting special election for city council in Zurich, my hometown, this month. The city council consists of 9 members and was composed of the following councillors before the special election:

Corine Mauch (SP, mayor)
Martin Waser (SP)
André Odermatt (SP)
Claudia Nielsen (SP)
Ruth Genner (Greens)
Daniel Leupi (Greens)
Gerold Lauber (CVP)
Martin Vollenwyder (FDP)
Andres Türler (FDP)

Martin Vollenwyder (FDP) retired and the FDP tried to retain its seat with Marco Camin. Camin was challenged by Richard Wolff, candidate from the left-wing Alternative Liste (AL). In a major upset, the FDP candidate, who was backed by his own party and all major centrist and conservative parties lost a narrow race to his challenger, who only got the official support from his own party and the Greens (the Social Democrats decided not to endorse any candidate):

Second ballot:

Richard Wolff (AL) 27.550 votes ELECTED
Marco Camin (FDP) 26.865 votes

This election has been another major blow for the once proud and strong FDP and has had the effect that the city council of Zurich has moved to the left even more. While the left had a 6-3 majority before the special election, it now has a 7-2 majority.

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/politik_u_recht/abstimmungen_u_wahlen/vergangene_termine/130421/resultate.html?path=wm_resultate_stadtrat&context=standalone

[ZuWo]

Update on the Neuchâtel elections: Philippe Gnaegi (FDP), sitting member of the cantonal government, has decided to throw in the towel and will not run for re-election on the second ballot on May 19 after a highly disappointing first ballot result. Meanwhile, the second FDP member of the government, Thierry Grosjean, as well as the third FDP candidate in the race, Alain Ribaux, have hinted that they are going to run again.

The FDP (PLR; Parti libéral-radical in French) now has to decide whether they will seek a formal alliance with the SVP (UDC; Union démocratique du centre) and its candidate Yvan Perrin to prevent the left from obtaining a majority in the 5-member cantonal government (Conseil d'Etat). Regardless of the party's decision, the FDP in Neuchâtel (and elsewhere) has to stomach a lot of bad news in the recent weeks and would be well-advised to prepare for another painful defeat.

Article in French: http://www.lematin.ch/suisse/conseiller-etat-philippe-gnaegi-jette-leponge/story/11997757

[ZuWo]

Was there a swing to the Right in Neuchâtel (ignoring the FDP>SVP movement), or was it just the introduction of the (horrendous) Green Liberals losing the Left coalition seats?

I don't really have a feel for what's the political mood in Neuchâtel but the Green Liberals have certainly contributed to the loss of the left parties. Interestingly, the Green Liberal Party is overwhelmingly supported by left-leaning voters (people who used to vote Green or SP), while the policies the party promotes are often quite centrist.
Another factor that may have played a role is the frequent tendency in cantons of French Switzerland to balance the power between the right and the left. It's often the case that one side gets a majority in the executive branch whereas the other side gains the upper hand in legislative elections. This seems to be the case once again in Neuchâtel.

[ZuWo]

I think turnout will not be exceptionally high (probably lower than 50%) - the initiative hasn't sparked a great deal of public debate so far. For most people the current system, while certainly far from perfect, seems better than the alternative options.

I will vote against ending compulsory military service for men. This way Switzerland has a functioning and relatively cheap army. Also, the army plays an important role in bringing together Swiss citizens from all parts of the country so it has a positive impact on national cohesion.

[ZuWo]

Two other federal referenda will be voted on, one of them is about opening hours in petrol station shops and the other one deals with a reform of the national epidemics law.

 

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Vote_outcomes_remain_uncertain,_except_for_army.html?cid=36870934

[ZuWo]

Yesterday marked the 165th birthday of the federal state of Switzerland. The federal constitution was adopted on September 12, 1848, almost a year after the conclusion of the last war on Swiss soil (Sonderbund War). For most Swiss people, however, this day has no significance at all. The national holiday of Switzerland is on August 1, an arbitrarily selected day which commemorates the Federal Charter of 1291, a day which is celebrated by just about everyone in the country.

[ZuWo]

Mandatory conscription will not be abolished in Switzerland. With the results of 15 cantons in, more than 70% of the voters have said no to the initiative by the "Group for a Switzerland without an Army" which was supported by the Greens and the Social Democrats.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Military_conscription_upheld_by_Swiss_voters.html?cid=36951892

[ZuWo]

We have the results of 22 cantons now. They look as follows:

Abolition of conscription:

618,114 Yes, 1,689,163 No
26,8% - 73,2%

Opening hours petrol station shops, reform of the labor law:

1,262,386 Yes, 1,013,978 No
55,5% - 44,5%

Reform of epidemics law:

1,345,690 Yes, 911,478 No
59,8% - 40,2%

Only the results of Ticino have not been reported yet.

[ZuWo]

And do these referenda also have a Ständemehr?

Only the conscription initiative. But since every canton has voted against it that isn't an issue.

[ZuWo]

And do these referenda also have a Ständemehr?

Only the conscription initiative. But since every canton has voted against it that isn't an issue.

Wait - are you saying one wasn't required for the other referenda? Is that required only for constitutional issues? I had been laboring under the assumption it was always required (and thus asking whether they were actually passing, referenda having failed despite getting over 50% confederationwide before).

Sorry, haven't checked the thread in a while.

The Ständemehr (= double majority, majority of the cantons) is required in the following three scenarios:

- Annahme einer Änderung der Bundesverfassung (über Volksinitiative oder obligatorisches Referendum) = amendment to the constitution
- Beitritt zu Organisationen kollektiver Sicherheit oder zu supranationalen Gemeinschaften = when Switzerland votes on joining certain international organisations (e.g. UN, EU, NATO)
- Dringlich erklärte Bundesgesetze ohne Verfassungsgrundlage mit Geltungsdauer über einem Jahr = urgent federal laws without a constitutional base that are valid for more than a year

Since the referendum on conscription was the only vote which falls into one of these three categories (amendment to the constitution), a Ständemehr wasn't required for the other two referenda.

[ZuWo]

A new federal poll by gfs.bern:



Changes compared to the last federal election (2011):

SVP: -0.8%
SP: no change
FDP: -0.4%
CVP: -0.6%
GP: -0.1%
BDP: +2.1%
GLP: +0.4

The BDP voter share is remarkable. An increase of 2.1% in Switzerland is huge.

[ZuWo]

Today is election day in Geneva. Seven seats in the "Conseil d'Etat" (executive election) and 100 seats in the "Grand Conseil" (legislative election) have to be filled.

First results are expected to be released in about an hour. This is the official results page (in French):

http://www.ge.ch/elections/20131006/

[ZuWo]

The party system in Geneva is highly fragmented. On the one hand, there are the major and medium-sized parties (SVP, SP, FDP, CVP, Greens, GLP, BDP). On the other hand, influential regional movements such as the "Ensemble à Gauche" (far-left) or the "Mouvement Citoyens Genevois" (regional SVP spin-off) compete for seats both in the executive and legislative elections as well.  

For reference this is the current Distribution of seats in the "Grand Conseil" of Geneva:



Note: FDP and LPS (Liberal Party Switzerland) have merged since the last election.

[ZuWo]

http://www.ge.ch/elections/20131006/GC/canton/

Why does the site list the Left Assembly(?) losing 3.7% when they didn't even reach the 7% threshold and were seatless at the last election?

The minor left-wing parties ran on separate lists last time and even though they won a combined 12.5% of the vote none of the single parties managed to overcome the 7% threshold. This time the far-left apparently settled on a smarter electoral strategy.

[ZuWo]

A runoff election will be held in November since no candidate for the "Conseil d'Etat" has reached the absolute majority of votes. This is the result with 96% of the vote in:

Absolute majority: 46'249 votes

1. MAUDET Pierre - FDP (incumbent) 44'158  
2. LONGCHAMP François - FDP (incumbent)  39'712  
3. DAL BUSCO Serge - CVP 33'402  
4. BARTHASSAT Luc - CVP 32'038  
5. ROCHAT Isabel - FDP (incumbent) 26'181
6. POGGIA Mauro - MCG 24'693  
7. STAUFFER Eric - MCG 19'467  
8. EMERY-TORRACINTA Anne SP 19'296
9. APOTHELOZ Thierry SP 17'968  
10. PERRELLA-GABUS Delphine MCG 17'291
... (there were 29 candidates in total)

The most remarkable result is the landslide loss of the Green Party. It is likely that they are going to lose both of their seats in the Conseil d'Etat, and they have lost half of their representation in the Grand Conseil, which can partly be explained by the far left's success. Additionally, many voters strongly disapprove of Michele Kuenzler, Green member of the Conseil d'Etat and minister of transport and the environment, which has hurt the party as well. Kuenzler is well behind most other candidates and has already announced that she is not running in the runoff election.

[ZuWo]

The new Grand Conseil looks as follows:



In comparison to the early projections the Greens have gained a seat at the expense of the MCG. While many journalists claim the new parliament consists of three more or less equally strong political groups (the left with 34, the center with 35 and the right with 31 seats) the truth is probably more complex. While both the MCG and the SVP are skeptical of mass immigration, the former is considerably more left-wing on economic issues and will vote with the left on more than one occasion. Additionally, the left is fairly heterogeneous as well since there are now self-described communists in parliament who don't see eye to eye with the mainstream social democrats on every issue. If anything, the balance of power will become even more unpredictable in the next five years.

[ZuWo]

For the Conseil d'État runoff, does there was an elimination threshold or any candidate which ran can run again if they want?

All candidates can run again, there's no elimination threshold. In theory, the parties can also field new candidates for the second round of voting. I expect the field of candidates to be considerably smaller, though. So far, MCG and SVP have announced they will run a common campaign with the two MCG candidates Mauro Poggia and Eric Stauffer and the SVP candidate Céline Amaudruz. CVP and FDP will run their five top candidates from the first round (Pierre Maudet, François Longchamp, Isabelle Rochat (FDP), Serge Dal Busco and Luc Barthassat (CVP)). Meanwhile, the Greens are expected to run Antonio Hodgers again, while the SP will probably field Anne Emery-Torracinta and Thierry Apotheloz again. The far left has not yet decided what they will do.

http://www.tdg.ch/geneve/actu-genevoise/conseil-etat-trois-blocs-partent-conquete-gouvernement/story/19219214

[ZuWo]

Three proposals will be on the ballot on November 24, all of which have attracted a lot of national - and in case of the 1:12 initiative even international - attention:

- A referendum against an increase in the price of the Swiss motorway tax sticker from 40 to 100 Swiss Francs a year. While the FDP, CVP and BDP support the increase, the SVP and Greens oppose it. The SP is conflicted on the issue. Whereas the SVP opposes new tax hikes in principle, the Greens do not want the state to spend more money on the construction of new roads. Recent polling suggests that the proponents of the tax hike have a slight advantage.

- The 1:12 initiative is simple and radical at the same time. Launched by left-wing groups under the leadership of the Young Socialists, the initiative seeks to limit top executive salaries at a one to 12 ratio against low-paid wages. The SP and Greens officially support the plan, while all other major parties vehemently oppose it. Prominent SP and Green Party officeholders have expressed their opposition to the initiative as well. The initiative is likely to be rejected.

- The SVP "family initiative" seeks to grant tax breaks for families that do not use daycare facilities. According to the proponents of the proposal it is not fair that families which use daycare facilities receive tax breaks while "traditional families" have to bear all costs on their own. The SVP is supported by minor conservative parties as well as a sizable faction of the CVP. The other major parties are against the initiative. The initiative has a real chance of being passed but it will be close; a clear rural/urban divide can be expected.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Salary_disparities_top_ballot_sheet.html?cid=37109036

[ZuWo]

A new poll on the November 24 referenda has been published:



http://www.swissinfo.ch/ger/politik_schweiz/Zweite_Umfrage_der_SRG_SSR.html?cid=37323270

First of all, it seems that support for the 1:12 initiative is going down, which isn't very surprising because it's one thing to be in favor of a populist proposal which aims at the "rich" when you hear about it for the first time but an entirely different thing when you start realizing how far-reaching and destructive that would be in practice.

Secondly, the opponents of the increase in the price of the Swiss motorway tax sticker appear to have gained ground. In part that's because the most vocal representative of the pro-campaign, Doris Leuthard (CVP), Minister of Transport, has made a couple of mistakes during the last weeks.

Finally, the honeymoon of the SVP "familiy initiative" is over, and we are likely to see a very close outcome. The campaign has revealed an internal fight within the CVP; while the official CVP convention voted against the initiative, party chairman Christophe Darbellay (CVP) has continued to campaign for it in public. Darbellay is from Valais, a conservative canton, and it is an open secret that he wants to get elected to the cantonal government in 2017, which means he can't alienate his future voter base.

[ZuWo]

Some campaign posters:

1:12 initiative

"Yes"-campaign:



"No"-campaign:

[ZuWo]

Price increase of the motorway tax sticker

"Yes"-campaign on the left, "No"-campaign on the right: