Can future Democratic presidents win Arizona?

[illegaloperation]

Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona? Unlike Texas Republicans that try to court as many Hispanic voters as possible, Arizona Republicans seem intend to offend as many of them as possible with show-me-your-paper laws.

The reason that Arizona is still in the Republican column is that unlike its neighboring states (Nevada and Colorado), the white votes in Arizona is decisively Republican while the white votes in Colorado and Nevada is only leaning Republican.

Arizona also houses a lot of white retirees that vote more Republican than younger whites.

[lincolnwall]

If Clinton runs and the GOP candidate is anyone but Christie or Rubio, I could see Arizona just tipping D, but I doubt it will happen until at least 2024. For it to happen in 2016, Clinton will have to be extremely popular and the GOP would have to actively work to alienate Hispanics, and I think they are wising up to the fact that that's simply not a good strategy.

It could happen in 2020 with a very unpopular GOP incumbent, but realistically '24 or '28 is when it really gets competitive. Of course this is assuming current demographic trends continue (the growing hispanic population voting strongly D, old white republicans dying off), which in actuality we know they don't in the long term. Seems like Arizona will be to the Democrats what Pennsylvania is for Republicans for the foreseeable future–seems winnable, but always just out of reach.

[bedstuy]

A Democrat can win Arizona.  There are liberal white voters in Tucson, Flagstaff, Phoenix and Tempe.  There are Latino voters in West Phoenix, South Tucson and elsewhere.  That's a decent base to work from.  Also, Nate Silver says just based on the demographic shift from 2012 to 2016, Obama vs. Romney would go from 55-45, to 53-47. 
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/can-democrats-turn-texas-and-arizona-blue-by-2016/

So, just based on that there is the potential for a close contest.  Democrats have shown the ability to win in traditionally Republican parts of Arizona, look at Gifford in 2006 and 2008 winning Cochise county, look at J-Nap's sweep of every county in 2006.  Arizona voters tend to be independent and will vote for a seemingly moderate Democrat.  A Democrat that runs a good ground game in Arizona, registers Latinos and appeals to suburban moderates can win in 2016.

[illegaloperation]

I am looking at the exit poll in 2012 election.

In Colorado, white votes lean Romney (54% to 44%) while Hispanics favor Obama (75% to 23%)

In Arizona, white votes go to Romney (62% to 36%) while Hispanics favor Obama (77% to 22%)

A very important issue here is whether the Democratic candidate (presumably Hillary) would be able to lose the white vote by a small enough margin that can be overcome by the Hispanic vote.

Because Maricopa County is Republican leaning, Democrats will have to minimize the loss there and get really high margins in Pima County.

[greenforest32]

Looking at the exit polls and changing demographic numbers, I think Democrats could win it. Maybe even before Georgia as its white vote isn't as Republican (and more elastic?).

I admit I was expecting Arizona to not only trend D in 2012 but swing D compared to 2008 but that didn't happen partially because the white vote swung further to Republicans to offset the Hispanic swing to Democrats compared to 2008[1]. But even then, look at the 2012 Senate race there. That was closer than the Presidential results. I think the 2016 Senate race could be even more competitive if it's an open seat and I doubt 2016 will have Arizona whites swinging Republican again like in 2012.

Basically my assumption is that Arizona will follow the path of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. I don't know if Democrats can win it outside of a landslide in 2016 but I think the margin will be fairly closer than 2012 and if that continues through the next election then 2020 looks like a win, at least on paper.

[1] http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls

[5280]

They can with a respectable D running president.  Right now, it's staying put, senior citizens and retirees will always move there which are GOP leaning.  The west doesn't need to turn more blue than it already has.

[DS0816]

Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona?

Had Barack Obama received increases, as is normally the case with incumbents re-elected to second full terms, he would have won over Arizona.

Take at least the post-television period beginning with Dwight Eisenhower, in the 1950s, and most incumbents garner an additional 3 to 5 percent points with their re-election, over their first-term election, margins.

Obama would have lost Indiana and Nebraska #02 (Omaha) to a Republican pickup for both going to Mitt Romney. The 44th president would have countered by flipping Georgia and Arizona.

Electoral-vote score, for this scenario, would have been Obama going from 365 (in 2008) to 374 (for 2012).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat, in the near term to put AZ in play, in 2016. Especially, against Marco Rubio, she will need it.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona?

Had Barack Obama received increases, as is normally the case with incumbents re-elected to second full terms, he would have won over Arizona.

Take at least the post-television period beginning with Dwight Eisenhower, in the 1950s, and most incumbents garner an additional 3 to 5 percent points with their re-election, over their first-term election, margins.

Obama would have lost Indiana and Nebraska #02 (Omaha) to a Republican pickup for both going to Mitt Romney. The 44th president would have countered by flipping Georgia and Arizona.

Electoral-vote score, for this scenario, would have been Obama going from 365 (in 2008) to 374 (for 2012).

By the way, is NE-02 a fluke, like Indiana was seen to be, or did Romney win it because Obama gave up there completely? Without Obama campaigning there, it ended up closer than Georgia and Arizona, both "swing states", the latter by 2%.

[Skill and Chance]

Are future Democratic presidents likely to carry Arizona?

Had Barack Obama received increases, as is normally the case with incumbents re-elected to second full terms, he would have won over Arizona.

Take at least the post-television period beginning with Dwight Eisenhower, in the 1950s, and most incumbents garner an additional 3 to 5 percent points with their re-election, over their first-term election, margins.

Obama would have lost Indiana and Nebraska #02 (Omaha) to a Republican pickup for both going to Mitt Romney. The 44th president would have countered by flipping Georgia and Arizona.

Electoral-vote score, for this scenario, would have been Obama going from 365 (in 2008) to 374 (for 2012).

By the way, is NE-02 a fluke, like Indiana was seen to be, or did Romney win it because Obama gave up there completely? Without Obama campaigning there, it ended up closer than Georgia and Arizona, both "swing states", the latter by 2%.

It seems to be trending D, but if it ever goes D again (while Nebraska statewide stays R), then they will just send it west into the NE-03 (R+23) territory after 2020.

[Emperor Charles V]

In my timeline, the next time a Democrat wins Arizona is when Gavin Newsom takes it by three points in 2028. However, he loses the state to Aaron Schock by one point in 2032. After Newsom, the next Democrat to win Arizona is Sebastian Caldero in 2068. In 2052, incumbent libertarian (formerly Republican) president David Henrie takes the state (it is his home state).

[illegaloperation]

In my timeline, the next time a Democrat wins Arizona is when Gavin Newsom takes it by three points in 2028. However, he loses the state to Aaron Schock by one point in 2032. After Newsom, the next Democrat to win Arizona is Sebastian Caldero in 2068. In 2052, incumbent libertarian (formerly Republican) president David Henrie takes the state (it is his home state).

lol, I won't go that far into the future.

[PJ]

Arizona is experiencing the same effects that made Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada Dem leaning states. In addition to the Hispanic vote, women in Arizona voted Democrat in 2012.

[illegaloperation]

Arizona is experiencing the same effects that made Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada Dem leaning states. In addition to the Hispanic vote, women in Arizona voted Democrat in 2012.

That's what I am saying. The difference in Arizona is that the white vote breaks decisively Republican while white the vote in Nevada and Colorado is only leaning Republican.

Had the white vote in Arizona been like white vote in Nevada and in Colorado, Obama would have carried Arizona last November.

[sg0508]

The Hispanic vote isn't going to be enough to win AZ for the democrats.  They will need to attract the conservative white vote and it will be tough, especially since AZ is known to be tougher on immigration.

AZ is also attracting a lot of aging whites, which isn't going to help the democrats' cause in my opinion and unlike CO, the youth vote isn't that high in that state (I believe).

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sure, eventually.  Arizona has a pretty strong Republican tradition, though, so I think it's going to take awhile. 

[illegaloperation]

The Hispanic vote isn't going to be enough to win AZ for the democrats.  They will need to attract the conservative white vote and it will be tough, especially since AZ is known to be tougher on immigration.

AZ is also attracting a lot of aging whites, which isn't going to help the democrats' cause in my opinion and unlike CO, the youth vote isn't that high in that state (I believe).

Hispanic: Arizona (29.6%), Nevada, (26.5%), Colorado (20.7)

People age 65+: Arizona (13.8%), Nevada (12.0%), Colorado (10.9%)

People age below 18: Arizona (25.5%), Nevada (24.6), Colorado (24.4)

[TDAS04]

It is possible for Hillary to win Arizona in 2016 (if she runs), and the state already is an easier target for Democratic presidential nominees than Montana (barring a Schweitzer presence on the ticket). 

[Person Man]

 Could it be that Arizona is mostly made up of transplants from the South and other rural areas and the states around it get Midwestern and Urban transplants? Indiana can be explained the same way. In all the other states in its region, the election is bitterly contested, but Democrats have done a little better than Republicans.

[bedstuy]

Could it be that Arizona is mostly made up of transplants from the South and other rural areas and the states around it get Midwestern and Urban transplants? Indiana can be explained the same way. In all the other states in its region, the election is bitterly contested, but Democrats have done a little better than Republicans.

No.  Most Arizonan transplants are originally from California or the Midwest.

[Person Man]

If there is no real difference between the demography between Arizona and Colorado, could it simply be an issue of organization? Colorado was Lean to Likely R (Clinton only won in 1992 because he won by a lot)  until they started organizing there.

[Mister Mets]

Possibly.

In 2000, it was about seven points more conservative than the rest of the nation.

North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Colorado were more conservative, and Obama won all four in 2008.

You would need a Democrat who could appeal to Western voters, or a Republican who is particularly alienating to the groups.

It seems unlikely to happen in the near future, just because the Democratic candidate in 2016 is really unlikely to do better than Obama in 2012.

But it John Hickenlooper is nominated against Rick Santorum, it's possible.

[Biden his time]

It happened!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Hispanic vote isn't going to be enough to win AZ for the democrats.  They will need to attract the conservative white vote and it will be tough, especially since AZ is known to be tougher on immigration.

AZ is also attracting a lot of aging whites, which isn't going to help the democrats' cause in my opinion and unlike CO, the youth vote isn't that high in that state (I believe).

Hispanic: Arizona (29.6%), Nevada, (26.5%), Colorado (20.7)

People age 65+: Arizona (13.8%), Nevada (12.0%), Colorado (10.9%)

People age below 18: Arizona (25.5%), Nevada (24.6), Colorado (24.4)

What are these stats like now?