Hezbollah considering military intervention in Syria

[Blue3]

I really hope this won't happen... it would quickly transform the civil war into a Regional War. The Saudi's won't be able to stand Hezbollah increasing its influence into Syria (neither would the Israeli's like it), and if Hezbollah needs help then the Iranians will step in.

http://news.yahoo.com/hezbollah-warns-possible-syria-intervention-214852198.html

[politicus]

Yes it would be bad, the only good thing is that Hezbollah might collapse under the combined pressure from its enemies, but as you say, the Iranians will likely help them.

[Blue3]

Yes it would be bad, the only good thing is that Hezbollah might collapse under the combined pressure from its enemies, but as you say, the Iranians will likely help them.

It could also reignite the civil wars in Lebanon and Iraq, and perhaps spread sectarian violence into Saudi Arabia's coast on the Persian Gulf (dominated by oppressed Shia, as well as where most of the oil comes from or ships though).

Israel also won't stand Hezbollah making a power play for influence over Syria. They already bombed the entire country of Lebanon in 2006 just because Hezbollah (who didn't even have political power then) kidnapped a soldier and hid in Lebanon. They would not tolerate Hezbollah spreading into Syria, especially with those chemical weapon stockpiles. And if Israel starts bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, then Assad himself could use chemical weapons against Israel. Then all hell breaks loose. No good can come of Hezbollah intervening militarily in Syria.

Also, if the Saudi's and Iranians follow Hezbollah by overtly going to war over Syria, then Sunni-Shia violence could spread to Saudi Arabia's coast on the Persian Gulf... leading to a new Oil Shock, skyrocketing gas prices, and a new global recession.

[dead0man]

The Hezzies have been involved since it started.  From wiki

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On the other hand, they probably don't know how to do a press release that isn't 80% lies.

[Blue3]

They've been involved from the beginning, but they haven't threatened an overt Military Intervention before. This could lead to the nightmare Middle East scenario.

*If Hezbollah goes in, Israel won't stand it. They could gain control of the chemical weapons. Israel would bomb both Syria and Lebanon like crazy. Remember 2006, when they bombed Lebanon like crazy? That was just because Hezbollah, who weren't even in power, kidnapped a single soldier and hid him somewhere in the country. It was that disproportionate response that helped lead to Hezbollah gaining power in Lebanon. If Israel did that over a kidnapped solider, they'd literally go ballistic over Hezbollah coming so close to chemical weapons and gaining influence in and over Syria (which would TRULY be an existential threat to Israel). Also, if Israel starts bombing Syria like crazy (out of fear of Hezbollah getting chemical weapons), then Assad himself would feel pressure to use those chemical weapons against Israel.

*If Israel goes ballistic on Lebanon/Syria, then Iran will very likely come in to save its only two remaining allies. (Or if the Saudi's openly get involved to counterbalance Hezbollah)

*If Iran openly and militarily goes into Syria/Lebanon (which could happen even without Israel going ballistic first, if they thought Hezbollah and Assad were in real danger)... then you can bet the Saudi's will go in to prevent his power play. (See Bahrain)

*If Saudi Arabia goes in to thwart Iran/Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon, then you can see sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia return to their worst levels in Lebanon as well as Iraq. And people tend to forget that oppressed Shia Arabians dominate the Saudi's Persian Gulf Coast... where all the oil is, and right next door to Iran. You could see Iran stirring up sectarian violence there, urging their fellow Shia's to finally liberate themselves from Saudi oppression.

*If the Sunni-Shia regional war spread to Saudi Arabia's coast on the Persian Gulf... that's also where all the oil is. And very likely that oil refineries will be damaged or even deliberately sabotaged. Say hello to a new Oil Shock, Hyperinflation, and Global Recession!

*If the violence spreads to Saudi Arabia, then Al Qaeda will act. They hate Iran and Hezbollah, but you can bet they would use this as an opportunity to devastate the Saudi regime they see as a puppet of the UK/US. They've already tried to destroy the oil refineries along the Saudi's gulf coast before... you can bet they would try harder than ever before, hoping it would help topple the Saudi's by cutting them off from the source of their power. And again, then say hello to a new Oil Shock, Hyperinflation, and Global Recession!

*As if this wasn't enough, there's Russia. When was the only time the Soviets/Russians ever actually threatened to nuke the United States? In 1967, over that Israeli-Arab war. Why? Because they were afraid the Israeli's would push too far into Syria, the Assad regime would crumble, and they the Russians would lose their crucial military base of Tartus. Today, it is just as crucial, and Russia's only military base outside the former USSR. If they've risked nuclear war before to keep it, and have strongly voiced their worries this time around that they wouldn't tolerate Israel or any NATO state intervening in Syria out of fear out of losing that base... what would they do if Israel starts bombing Syria like crazy and possibly invades (if Hezbollah moves in openly in a military intervention, thereby getting too close to gaining Chemical Weapons)??

[politicus]

Russia is not the Soviet Union and predicting how they will react based on Soviet behavior in the past is pointless.

Yes it would be bad, the only good thing is that Hezbollah might collapse under the combined pressure from its enemies, but as you say, the Iranians will likely help them.

No good can come of Hezbollah intervening militarily in Syria.

I get your nightmare scenario, I would still consider the - possible - self destruction of Hezbollah to be a good thing in itself.

[dead0man]

They've been involved from the beginning, but they haven't threatened an overt Military Intervention before. This could lead to the nightmare Middle East scenario.

*If Hezbollah goes in...

Dude, if the dominoes are set up that dangerously, we might as well get it all over with now 'cause they're going to topple eventually.  Might as well get it out of the way.

[dead0man]

Meanwhile...The Azov, a Russian Black Sea Fleet combat ship, is to visit Israel for the first time

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[Blue3]

The Russian factor is the least important thing I said here,

Anyways,

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[politicus]

The Russian factor is the least important thing I said here,

Yup, but you still said it, and its nonsense.

[Blue3]

The Russian factor is the least important thing I said here,

Yup, but you still said it, and its nonsense.

No it isn't. The Russians have been very wary of any Syrian intervention because of their military base there, they've said so, that's why the US got the Syrian rebels to say the Russian military base could still stay open.

[dead0man]

Russia isn't going to go to war with the West over a port in Syria, the idea is ludicrous.  They don't want the Assad regime to fall because they are decent customers to their defense industry, but they ain't going to go to war to keep that customer.

[Blue3]

Russia isn't going to go to war with the West over a port in Syria, the idea is ludicrous.  They don't want the Assad regime to fall because they are decent customers to their defense industry, but they ain't going to go to war to keep that customer.

I agree, I was never arguing that. I was just showing how important this port has been to Russia in the past, and still is.

[Mr. Morden]

Iraqi Hezbollah (a separate group from Lebanese Hezbollah, but similarly backed by Iran) is also sending fighters to Syria:

http://www.chron.com/news/world/article/Iraqi-death-hints-of-Iran-s-role-in-Syrian-crisis-4491334.php

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[Beet]

Pretty much the only reason the Saudis are treated as being so superior to the Iranians is that the U.S. is allied to the Saudi royal family. From a moral standpoint, there's no reason to favor one side over the other. Saudi Arabia is a barbaric country, a desert with a tiny welfare-addicted population, an economy built on an extractive, polluting and unsustainable industry, while sitting amongst a sea of Arab poverty, the only thing they have been skillful at is exporting terrorism for generations, including al Qaeda. Now let's get Netanyahu to Capitol Hill to tell us about the horrors of Hezbollah again.

[Cory]

Pretty much the only reason the Saudis are treated as being so superior to the Iranians is that the U.S. is allied to the Saudi royal family. From a moral standpoint, there's no reason to favor one side over the other. Saudi Arabia is a barbaric country, a desert with a tiny welfare-addicted population, an economy built on an extractive, polluting and unsustainable industry, while sitting amongst a sea of Arab poverty, the only thing they have been skillful at is exporting terrorism for generations, including al Qaeda. Now let's get Netanyahu to Capitol Hill to tell us about the horrors of Hezbollah again.

This. If anything Iran is a much better country to live in for most people then Saudi Arabia. 

[dead0man]

...and Belarus is nicer than N.Korea...and drinking piss is better than eating sh**t.  I agree that Iran is probably better for your average Mohammed Six Pack than S.Arabia, but that doesn't excuse Iran from it's exportation of terrorism or hanging of homosexuals.