Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The 4th circuit ruling is kind of odd. It implies that it's a constitutional violation to make some sex acts illegal between certain persons, but making all sex acts illegal between those persons would be okay.

[RedSLC]

Republicans are doing great at this whole rebranding thing.

Ken Cuccinelli Appeals To Defend Virginia's Anti-Sodomy Law At Supreme Court

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/25/ken-cuccinelli-sodomy-supreme-court_n_3498444.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

I just read about this somewhere else. He said that it should stand because it allowed them to prosecute a 47-year-old for having sex with a 17-year old.

My immediate reaction was "Why can't you just prosecute him under age of consent laws???"

Likely because the sodomy law was a felony (I think)... whereas the age of consent law in that case would only be a misdemeanor:

Virginia

The age of consent in Virginia is 18, with a close in age exception that allows teenagers aged 15 to 17 to engage in sexual acts but only with a partner younger than 18.

Section § 18.2-63 of the Code refers to minors younger than 15, while § 18.2-371 is about 15-, 16- and 17-year-olds.

Section 18.2-63 states in part:
"If any person carnally knows, without the use of force, a child thirteen years of age or older but under fifteen years of age, such person shall be guilty of ... felony ... For the purposes of this section, (i) a child under the age of thirteen years shall not be considered a consenting child and (ii) "carnal knowledge" includes the acts of sexual intercourse, cunnilingus, fellatio, analingus, anal intercourse, and animate and inanimate object sexual penetration."
Consensual sex where one partner is 15, 16 or 17 and the other is over 18 is a class 1 misdemeanor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ages_of_consent_in_North_America#Virginia

Thanks for the explanation.

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You said it.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

[Rocky Rockefeller]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

Turnout most certainly won't approach presidential levels.

[Frodo]

If this story gains traction, it could help doom Cuccinelli in November:

For months, Cuccinelli didn’t know of McDonnell allegations, campaign says

By Rosalind S. Helderman, Published: July 3

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s staff purposely shielded him from allegations of improper behavior by Gov. Robert F. McDonnell for five months last year, knowing the attorney general was friendly with a key donor at the center of those accusations, according to new information released by Cuccinelli’s gubernatorial campaign.

Cuccinelli (R) had stayed at the home of Star Scientific Inc. chief executive Jonnie R. Williams Sr. shortly after he took office in 2010, so Cuccinelli’s deputy “walled off” Cuccinelli from a separate criminal investigation into whether a chef at the governor’s mansion had embezzled food, campaign officials said.

The timeline is significant because Cuccinelli owned stock in Williams’s company and sold some of it at a profit during this time frame.

[greenforest32]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

Turnout most certainly won't approach presidential levels.

Imagine if it did though. What reason other than ensuring low voter turn-out do these states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Mississippi have for having their elections in off-years? The Virginia gubernatorial election consistently has a voting-eligible population turnout of under 40%. It's probably even lower for the state legislature.

Same deal with NYC and their mayoral election.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Having off-year elections allows a focus on state instead of federal issues in election season, and for that I consider it a very good thing. 

[greenforest32]

Having off-year elections allows a focus on state instead of federal issues in election season, and for that I consider it a very good thing. 

It's a choice between low turn-out and 'focus' and I don't see how state or federal issues are that much different. It's not like you're going to be doing A federally and B at the state level or that the state elections are going to get crowded out by federal ones. Portland, OR has its mayoral elections in presidential years and there's plenty of discussion of the issues. I don't notice things being inadequate compared to the coverage in Los Angeles' off-year mayoral election. Same thing with Governor and even then you have mid-terms, there's no need to go off-year for Governor and the state legislature.

[Napoleon]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

That will drive down turnout if anything.

[Non Swing Voter]

Having off-year elections allows a focus on state instead of federal issues in election season, and for that I consider it a very good thing. 

I agree with this, but everything is so partisan nowadays that national crap finds its way in.  If it was all about who is going to fix the traffic problem in NOVA or make the local schools better... then this would be great. But, most people in Virginia are just going to vote on party line and the results will track closely with demographic and regional voting patterns in Presidential years... the difference being it will skew more rural, older, and whiter.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

That will drive down turnout if anything.

I think it depends how over the top they get.  If they start making homophobic/anti-abortion comments, I could see it pissing off Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria voters enough to drive turnout up slightly.  Pretty sure there is a huge gay population on the metro accessible areas of NOVA, I am curious how mobilized they will be to vote against someone who has literal contempt for them.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

To those who live in Virginia/familiar with Virginian state politics - Given all the scandals McDonnell and his family have been involved in recently, has the race tilted to McAuliffe?

[Mr. Reactionary]

It certainly won't help Cooch, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it a game change. McDonnell had (has, still not sure about the fallout yet) cross-over support, but little of that cross-over support would have trickled to Cuccinelli. At this stage it's still a turnout election; Conservatives want Cooch, liberals want anyone but Cooch. It's unlikely that the conservative true-believers will stay home because of McDonnell (they actually campaigned against him at the convention.) The real question is will this turnout more Democrats. At this stage I don't think so, given McAuliffe's lackluster personality. If the McDonnell scandal gets really bad and can be substantively tied to Cuccinelli, then it's a whole new ballgame. But at this stage, I haven't actually seen much coverage of McDonnell in Virginia. The report on his business getting a loan from the Star Scientific guy was on page 6 in my paper today. I think everyone is waiting to see what comes of the investigation first. If McDonnell only comes off partially slimy and Cooch stays on topic, I imagine tossup status will remain.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

It certainly won't help Cooch, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it a game change. McDonnell had (has, still not sure about the fallout yet) cross-over support, but little of that cross-over support would have trickled to Cuccinelli. At this stage it's still a turnout election; Conservatives want Cooch, liberals want anyone but Cooch. It's unlikely that the conservative true-believers will stay home because of McDonnell (they actually campaigned against him at the convention.) The real question is will this turnout more Democrats. At this stage I don't think so, given McAuliffe's lackluster personality. If the McDonnell scandal gets really bad and can be substantively tied to Cuccinelli, then it's a whole new ballgame. But at this stage, I haven't actually seen much coverage of McDonnell in Virginia. The report on his business getting a loan from the Star Scientific guy was on page 6 in my paper today. I think everyone is waiting to see what comes of the investigation first. If McDonnell only comes off partially slimy and Cooch stays on topic, I imagine tossup status will remain.

Thanks for the information, it will certainly be an interesting election to watch.

[barfbag]

With all the crooked politics McAuliffe pulled with the Clintons, he should be seen as bad news. He'll be Hillary Clinton's running mate most likely that is if he wins.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

With all the crooked politics McAuliffe pulled with the Clintons, he should be seen as bad news. He'll be Hillary Clinton's running mate most likely that is if he wins.

Doubt it, he's close with Bill, not Hillary. And she'd want someone relatively young and popular. Of she wanted a Virginia running-mate, she'd go with Warner or Kaine.

[Earthling]

With all the crooked politics McAuliffe pulled with the Clintons, he should be seen as bad news. He'll be Hillary Clinton's running mate most likely that is if he wins.

Doubt it, he's close with Bill, not Hillary. And she'd want someone relatively young and popular. Of she wanted a Virginia running-mate, she'd go with Warner or Kaine.

Indeed. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are successful politicians with appeal in Virginia. McAuliffe will probably become governor because he is the least negative option, not because the voters in Virginia love him.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't think the scandals will be a deciding factor.  It's going to come out to turnout.  In an election where most of the electorate turns out, Republicans cannot win unless their candidate is flawless (which Cooch is not... in fact he's far from).  In a low turnout election, Republicans can win because most of the drop off will be minorities and young voters, which is a big portion of the Northern Virginia vote.

[Miles]

PPP has McAuliffe up 41-37 with the Libertarian pulling 7% and 15% undecided.

Neither are popular, but McAuliffe is almost breaking even:

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[Ogre Mage]

I wonder if McAuliffe vs. Cuccinelli will be a bigger race to the bottom than Reid vs. Angle.  Maybe not.

[barfbag]

With all the crooked politics McAuliffe pulled with the Clintons, he should be seen as bad news. He'll be Hillary Clinton's running mate most likely that is if he wins.

Doubt it, he's close with Bill, not Hillary. And she'd want someone relatively young and popular. Of she wanted a Virginia running-mate, she'd go with Warner or Kaine.

Indeed. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are successful politicians with appeal in Virginia. McAuliffe will probably become governor because he is the least negative option, not because the voters in Virginia love him.

I'm hoping not but with the way the state elections of Virginia seem to match the federal government, we'll probably see four years of a Democrat next followed by four years of a Republican unless Obama's approval ratings plummet between now and November.

[Mr. Reactionary]

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But remember, Virginia matches the federal government, by doing the opposite. We elected a Republican in '77 as a rejection of Carter, Democrats in '81, '85, and '89 to counter Reagan and Bush 1. In '93 Republican George Allen was seen as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton backlash. In '97 another Republican was elected coinciding with Clinton's 2nd term. In '01 and '05, Democrats countered Bush 2. And then in '09 we had McDonnell pull an Allen and portend the anti-Obama wave in 2010. If McAuliffe wins, it'll be the first time Virginia elected a governor in agreement with the new President since the 1970s.

[illegaloperation]

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But remember, Virginia matches the federal government, by doing the opposite. We elected a Republican in '77 as a rejection of Carter, Democrats in '81, '85, and '89 to counter Reagan and Bush 1. In '93 Republican George Allen was seen as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton backlash. In '97 another Republican was elected coinciding with Clinton's 2nd term. In '01 and '05, Democrats countered Bush 2. And then in '09 we had McDonnell pull an Allen and portend the anti-Obama wave in 2010. If McAuliffe wins, it'll be the first time Virginia elected a governor in agreement with the new President since the 1970s.

Maybe Ken Cuccinelli is so extreme that there a new phenomenon.

Anyway, Bill Bolling was a shoo-in... until he didn't get the nomination.

[barfbag]

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But remember, Virginia matches the federal government, by doing the opposite. We elected a Republican in '77 as a rejection of Carter, Democrats in '81, '85, and '89 to counter Reagan and Bush 1. In '93 Republican George Allen was seen as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton backlash. In '97 another Republican was elected coinciding with Clinton's 2nd term. In '01 and '05, Democrats countered Bush 2. And then in '09 we had McDonnell pull an Allen and portend the anti-Obama wave in 2010. If McAuliffe wins, it'll be the first time Virginia elected a governor in agreement with the new President since the 1970s.

Excellent point. I was only looking at the president's numbers.

[Senator Cris]

New Roanoke College poll.

Cuccinelli (R) 37%
McAuliffe (D) 31 %
Sarvis (L) 5%

Undecided 27%