Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[tmthforu94]

Shoot, Bill Bolling would have won this contest with ease had he been the GOP nominee.

[windjammer]

And fortunately, Mcauliffe and Cuccinelli will be term limited.

Honestly, I continue to think it will be cuccinelli. People don't break a trend so easily...

[Gass3268]

Yeah, I think people are starting to realize that the alternative is, you know, Terry McAuliffe.

The Cooch makes McAuliffe look like a saint.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Does anyone think the Bradley effect may come in to play here? I'm not sure if its a "real" thing or not. I do know that as a student, I (and several of my friends) are publicly claiming not to be voting for Cuccinelli, but we will. This is purely anecdotal of course, but I wasn't sure if this could be a factor.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Does anyone think the Bradley effect may come in to play here? I'm not sure if its a "real" thing or not. I do know that as a student, I (and several of my friends) are publicly claiming not to be voting for Cuccinelli, but we will. This is purely anecdotal of course, but I wasn't sure if this could be a factor.

There's more social pressure to be dishonest about your vote to a person you know or see face to face on a regular basis than there is to be dishonest about your vote to a pollster. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, I think people are starting to realize that the alternative is, you know, Terry McAuliffe.

No, it's because their previous poll didn't include Sarvis. McAullife's favorables are unchanged.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Honestly, I continue to think it will be cuccinelli. People don't break a trend so easily...

'The current of the flowing river does not cease, and yet the water is not the same water as before. The foam that floats on stagnant pools, now vanishing, now forming, never stays the same for long. So, too, it is with the political trends of Virginia.'

[publicunofficial]

Honestly, I continue to think it will be cuccinelli. People don't break a trend so easily...

Except they totally do.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

So... how's the Libertarian Candidate?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So... how's the Libertarian Candidate?

He's legit.
http://altdaily.com/features/news/6351-yes-virginia-there-is-a-third-candidate

[Rocky Rockefeller]

So... how's the Libertarian Candidate?

He's legit.
http://altdaily.com/features/news/6351-yes-virginia-there-is-a-third-candidate

Ok Thanks.

[Kevin]

If this hasn't been posted already,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mcauliffe-camp-erupts-over-business-pacs-choice-of-cuccinelli-for-virginia-governor/2013/09/15/bd93558e-1e04-11e3-8459-657e0c72fec8_story.html

[Landslide Lyndon]

Anyone saw yesterday's debate?

[hopper]

Anyone saw yesterday's debate?

I fell asleep actually during it. McCauliff doesn't know how he is gonna pay for Medicaid expansion and Cuccinelli doesn't know how he is gonna pay for his tax cuts.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Cuccinelli will win this race in the end.

I just do NOT see the traditional trend since 1977 ending anytime soon.

[Keystone Phil]

Anyone saw yesterday's debate?

Considering the hatred for both candidates, maybe sixteen Virginians (not counting campaign staffers).

[ElectionsGuy]

Cuccinelli will win this race in the end.

I just do NOT see the traditional trend since 1977 ending anytime soon.

Looks like it will, dude. I'm sorry but there's no denial here, Virginia is clearly changing its political future, even if its not evident in this election due to bad candidates, it will clearly be evident in future elections. With that being said though, this state is still a toss-up in generic elections.

[PolitiJunkie]

Cuccinelli will win this race in the end.

I just do NOT see the traditional trend since 1977 ending anytime soon.

See, you are just wrong. Trends like that are dumb because they are just broken so easily. No one voting in this election cares about the trend. In 2012, everyone made a big deal that the winner of the South Carolina primary has always won the nomination. How'd that work out for Newt Gingrich? In 2008, everyone made a big deal out of the fact that no Republican who placed below third in Iowa ever won the nomination. McCain was fourth. These traditions just go away very easily. Have you seen this?

[Miles]

Well, I was worried a few days ago about how close the LG race was, but this should help that:

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[Beet]

Wait, the LG race was close? I've never seen any polling on it.

[Miles]

Wait, the LG race was close? I've never seen any polling on it.

Northam is only up 3.

[Beet]

Wait, the LG race was close? I've never seen any polling on it.

Northam is only up 3.

Good lord, they buried that deeply. I was just thinking the other day how we've never seen any polls of lower level races. Giving it a bit more attention in the story or graphic or even posting the question a bit higher in the poll might help.

I guess it's the African-American evangelical vote coming out. I think I mentioned this but when I was canvassing for Obama I met one black woman who said she wouldn't vote for him because of his stance on gay marriage. The ironic thing is that most of these people are pro-choice.

[PolitiJunkie]

Wait, the LG race was close? I've never seen any polling on it.

Northam is only up 3.

Good lord, they buried that deeply. I was just thinking the other day how we've never seen any polls of lower level races. Giving it a bit more attention in the story or graphic or even posting the question a bit higher in the poll might help.

I guess it's the African-American evangelical vote coming out. I think I mentioned this but when I was canvassing for Obama I met one black woman who said she wouldn't vote for him because of his stance on gay marriage. The ironic thing is that most of these people are pro-choice.

Not quite, it's because Northam has barely campaigned, assuming he could coast to victory on the idiocy of Jackson alone.

[Lief 🗽]

Larry Sabato makes the interesting point on twitter that the government shutdown could claim its first electoral victim in Cuccinelli:

@LarrySabato 40m
1st election victim of a long #shutdown will prob be an R: Ken Cuccinelli (VA GOV). Ds needed turnout spur in NoVa--now they've got it.

@LarrySabato 38m
Estimates are half of all inner NoVa extended families have at least 1 fed govt employee, now unpaid & angry. NoVa heavily D anyway.

[ElectionsGuy]

Larry Sabato makes the interesting point on twitter that the government shutdown could claim its first electoral victim in Cuccinelli:

@LarrySabato 40m
1st election victim of a long #shutdown will prob be an R: Ken Cuccinelli (VA GOV). Ds needed turnout spur in NoVa--now they've got it.

@LarrySabato 38m
Estimates are half of all inner NoVa extended families have at least 1 fed govt employee, now unpaid & angry. NoVa heavily D anyway.

Republicans have commited electoral suicide here. First with Cuccinelli and the McDonnell scandal, now this, especially in Virginia, only helps the democrats.