Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Tender Branson]

New Roanoke College poll.

Cuccinelli (R) 37%
McAuliffe (D) 31 %
Sarvis (L) 5%

Undecided 27%

Roanoke is a joke poll.

It showed a Romney+6 or so win, was 10 points off.

Quinnipiac has McAuliffe by 4 today, just like PPP.

[JRP1994]

Quinnipiac does show the same result as PPP - McAuliffe +4. However, both polls are "Registered Voter" polls, not "Likely Voter". Nate Silver once said that the shift from Registered to Likely usually shifts the result R+1 or R+2. If played conservatively, that turns the result into McAuliffe +3.

The poll's MoE is 3%. I agree that McAuliffe has a slight lead, but this is pretty darn close to a tossup. I'd say McAuliffe has a 55-60% chance of winning.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Quinnipiac does show the same result as PPP - McAuliffe +4. However, both polls are "Registered Voter" polls, not "Likely Voter". Nate Silver once said that the shift from Registered to Likely usually shifts the result R+1 or R+2. If played conservatively, that turns the result into McAuliffe +3.

The poll's MoE is 3%. I agree that McAuliffe has a slight lead, but this is pretty darn close to a tossup. I'd say McAuliffe has a 55-60% chance of winning.

There's no reason to poll likely voters until AT LEAST late September. Nobody's paying attention to an election in the middle of July.

[free my dawg]

New Roanoke College poll.

Cuccinelli (R) 37%
McAuliffe (D) 31 %
Sarvis (L) 5%

Undecided 27%

Roanoke is a joke poll.

It showed a Romney+6 or so win, was 10 points off.

Quinnipiac has McAuliffe by 4 today, just like PPP.

They've always been wildly inaccurate. Two months before they had Obama leading by 8 points.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Good evening folks.

On the VA Governor's race: I'm thinking it's too close to call and for McAuliffe to win, he's gonna need huge turnout among African Americans and Latinos to have any shot at reclaiming the VA governorship for the Dems.

Didn't the VA General Assembly push some legislation to extending the governor's term to 8 years instead of the one-term restriction (like Mexico and Guatemala have on their presidents) ?

[publicunofficial]

Most commentators (Including Sabato) have crowned McAuliffe the winner of today's debate, or that he exceeded expectations at the very least.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Citizens United is putting together an anti-Terry movie.

[Frodo]

The clouds of scandal that have enveloped both Gov. Bob McDonnell and his would-be successor Ken Cuccinelli seem to have spread to Terry McAuliffe as well.  

If Bill Bolling had been the GOP gubernatorial nominee instead of Ken Cuccinelli, I would not have bothered even considering to vote this year.  

[tmthforu94]

OK, would Bolling of had a serious shot at winning if he had run? Because it's starting to look that way.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

OK, would Bolling of had a serious shot at winning if he had run? Because it's starting to look that way.

Oh absolutely.  I thought he could win from the start, but now it'd be much easier.

[Beet]

Ugh. GreenTech is an embarrassment for McAuliffe, period. At this point I'm worried that if he wins, his governorship is going to be dogged by questions of how much he knew at GreenTech about any improprieties. If Bill Bolling had run I'd probably have voted for him. There aren't really any good choices right now.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Here's looking forward to 2017!

Hey Hey, Ho Ho
TBD has got to go.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's looking forward to 2017!

Hey Hey, Ho Ho
TBD has got to go.

Yeah, great rallying cry considering Virginia has one term term limits for their Governor.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Here's looking forward to 2017!

Hey Hey, Ho Ho
TBD has got to go.

Yeah, great rallying cry considering Virginia has one term term limits for their Governor.

Yeah, I know

[RogueBeaver]

Billionaire greenie Tom Steyer will be investing in McAuliffe.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I can't help but think our state's reputation is taking a hit since we have a crook for a governor and our 2 candidates to replace him are a kook and a crook. At LG we have a moron running against an opportunist who was willing to sell his party label, and at AG we have a pro-life statist vs. a mean-spirited, loud-mouthed jerk. Pity us.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Here's how I think VA will go in November:

1. State Attorney General-Dems wins the office for the first time since 1989: it's been 24 years since a Democrat won the state's law enforcement post.

2. Lieutenant Governor-Dems take back this office because Jackson is an IDIOT.

3. Governor: Too close to call, but I'm going to lean McAuliffe, who needs the Clintons and Senators Kaine & Warner to bail him out and help him.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of T-Mac and the Clintons.

[TX Conservative Dem]

We're about to find out in 3 months if McAuliffe can break the curse on his political party losing the governorship despite holding the WH.

[RedPrometheus]

The polls are looking quite good for McAuliffe so I think he is able to win in November.

[RogueBeaver]

Sabato's new rating is Leans D.

[Gass3268]

Sabato's new rating is Leans D.

Damn, that's a huge deal considering we are talking about Virginia.

[Miles]

Rubio is headed to VA to help Cuccinelli.

[illegaloperation]

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

[Miles]

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

I don't think that would be the case if Republican ran better candidates though.