Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Definitely not Virginia.

?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Edit: Seriously, I said what I came to say. I'm done here.

Why contribute to pulling a thread even further off-topic? The only reason anyone should come here is to weigh in on the Virginia Gubernatorial race, not use it to try and attack members of this forum.

When is the deadline for a third-party to enter the race?

June 11.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

joke candidate for joke position.   makes sense.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Plus, Mark Obenshain is the nominee for Attorney General, who is far from a perfect candidate, seeing as he drafted a bill that would force women to report miscarriages to the police or face jail time.

And he withdrew the bill when he realized it would do that.

I don't plan on voting for the guy, but let's be fair to him here.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Jackson: the 3/5 clause was "anti-slavery."

still a more informed view than most people have, who think slaves should have been counted as full persons instead.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Northam has a geographic base here in Norfolk as a state senator and a pediatrician at CHKD.  No one knows what Chopra's about except that he has connections with the state and national party establishment. 

I honestly can't see Northam as part of the Virginia GOP.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The 4th circuit ruling is kind of odd. It implies that it's a constitutional violation to make some sex acts illegal between certain persons, but making all sex acts illegal between those persons would be okay.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Having off-year elections allows a focus on state instead of federal issues in election season, and for that I consider it a very good thing. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Citizens United is putting together an anti-Terry movie.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

Not really.  If Democrats win this year it'll be because the GOP opponent was out of touch with Virginia; if Bolling had been the nominee, he'd be up 10 points at the moment.

Ten points?  I don't live in Virginia, but isn't your state slowly becoming out of reach for McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli-type GOPers?

Why do you say that?  McDonnell won by 17 points just 4 years ago.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

Not really.  If Democrats win this year it'll be because the GOP opponent was out of touch with Virginia; if Bolling had been the nominee, he'd be up 10 points at the moment.

Ten points?  I don't live in Virginia, but isn't your state slowly becoming out of reach for McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli-type GOPers?

I don't live in Virginia either but I was under the impression that Bolling, while conservative, wasn't really a McDonnell/Cuccinelli-type GOPer.

McDonnell and Bolling were both the more moderate candidate when they won their primaries in 2005, and are more alike to each other in their philosophy/approach to governing than either is to Cuccinelli.    A Republican doesn't need to be a John Warner-type to win Virginia, and win decisively against a flawed opponent like McAuliffe. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Does anyone think the Bradley effect may come in to play here? I'm not sure if its a "real" thing or not. I do know that as a student, I (and several of my friends) are publicly claiming not to be voting for Cuccinelli, but we will. This is purely anecdotal of course, but I wasn't sure if this could be a factor.

There's more social pressure to be dishonest about your vote to a person you know or see face to face on a regular basis than there is to be dishonest about your vote to a pollster. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So... how's the Libertarian Candidate?

He's legit.
http://altdaily.com/features/news/6351-yes-virginia-there-is-a-third-candidate

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Bill Bolling is not going to endorse McAuliffe.  He's not going to risk his political future to support an unpopular candidate.   

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The thought of Terry McAuliffe winning any elected public office (let alone Governor of a swing state) is astonishing and all of you would agree if you set aside your feelings on Cuccinelli.

Anyway, Terry will be an unquestionably disastrous Governor, most likely scandal plagued and extremely unpopular. VA Dems will be tagged as "McAuliffe Democrats" over the next few years and the GOP will benefit.

Cuccinelli is simply falling on his sword to ensure greater days to come. You all talk about the day that marked the end of this campaign. That's fine. I look at it this way though: Inauguration Day is when the VA GOP will be reborn.

Is this meant to be a parody post?

I was skeptical of McAuliffe, but if Haley Barbour could change from a sleazy politico and lobbyist to an effective governor, so could McAuliffe.

Cuccinelli and his ilk are done in Virginia. His 2004-style politics are going to get more and more stale as Virginia grows more diverse.

2004-style?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

2004-style?

He's a culture warrior and Bush-era Republican. It's been a while since Republican standard bearers put culture issues on the front burner like he has, and those days aren't combing back.

Yes, he was a Republican during the Bush era   And I don't see where he's campaigning as a culture warrior. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

George Will's column is on Sarvis today:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-f-will-robert-sarvis-virginias-other-choice-for-governor/2013/10/23/1544f8d6-3b5c-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story.html

Not strictly an endorsement, but is positive toward his campaign.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Has Virginia become NJ?

No. If they were running an actual conservative who wasn't crazy (not just Bolling), then they would have this sh**t in the bag. The only reason that the crook is winning is because he's running against a kook. I've talked to a former Republican congressman, and he's voting for Sarvis because "the only other two choices are a snake oil salesman and a fascist."

To change the subject completely, have you ever by any chance met Tom Davis?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here's a question. Will Gov. McAuliffe be the first Virginia governor in living memory to *not* be considered a potential presidential nominee after he wins?

I think the only person who considered Jim Gilmore a potential presidential nominee was himself.  McAuliffe may end up in that category as well.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Could we get a map on Obershain vs Herring?  It's not every day you have a statewide race decided by .02% of the vote.

http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=attgen