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| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Apocrypha)
| | |-+  if the 1984 election were held in 2004?
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Author Topic: if the 1984 election were held in 2004?  (Read 1620 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: February 20, 2005, 04:16:28 pm »
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if the 1984 election between reagan and mondale would have been held 20 years later, or in a similar political climate as 2004, what would a base map look like?  i dont think reagan would have won in quite the landslide he did 20 years ago.

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Jake
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2005, 04:33:44 pm »
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New Jersey and Washington maybe for Reagan
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2005, 04:36:30 pm »
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New Jersey and Washington maybe for Reagan

No. Reagan won due to King County, which has Seattle. It would go Mondale.
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Jake
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2005, 04:36:54 pm »
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and with the 1984 map and today's partisanship:

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Rob
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2005, 04:45:28 pm »
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if the 1984 election between reagan and mondale would have been held 20 years later, or in a similar political climate as 2004, what would a base map look like?  i dont think reagan would have won in quite the landslide he did 20 years ago.



I mostly agree, but Mondale would probably win Maine's overall electoral vote(although the 2nd District would still go for Reagan).
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skybridge
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2005, 04:50:35 pm »
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Wouldn't Reagan also win California?
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Rob
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2005, 04:53:12 pm »
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Wouldn't Reagan also win California?

Probably not. Too Democratic.
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John Dibble
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2005, 05:04:27 pm »
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Wouldn't Reagan also win California?

Probably not. Too Democratic.

What are you talking about? They love to vote for Republican actors! Wink
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DanielX
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2005, 05:45:53 pm »
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if the 1984 election between reagan and mondale would have been held 20 years later, or in a similar political climate as 2004, what would a base map look like?  i dont think reagan would have won in quite the landslide he did 20 years ago.



Not bad, but I think New Jersey would also go Republican. California, Hawaii, and Washington could swing either way.

If Mondale ran his campaign the way he did in 1984, he'd do worse yet. New York, the New England Snake (Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island), and DC would be the only guaranteed wins. I'd probably also throw him the following: Minnesota, Maryland, and Illinois. The rest would be Reagan country.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2005, 10:52:35 am »
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Things aren't quite as polarised now as we sometimes like to think.
It's the difference between political hacks (very polarised) and normal people (still happy to ticket split)
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"It is the essence of a true democracy that people should be respected individually, not simply collectively. It is also of the essence of a democracy that differences and distinctions are recognised and, where relevant, honoured. A democracy should be above all a thoughtful type of society, in these and other respects."

Richard Hoggart
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2005, 12:08:56 pm »
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Things aren't quite as polarised now as we sometimes like to think.
It's the difference between political hacks (very polarised) and normal people (still happy to ticket split)

Except that in some states like CA, the number of hacks and trolls very much outweigh the numbers of normal people.

Compare the election results of San Bernadino and Riverside counties in 2000/2004 vs. any of the Bay Area counties in the same two elections. In the first two, there is a marked change; in the latter, hardly any change.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2005, 11:42:46 pm »
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Things aren't quite as polarised now as we sometimes like to think.
It's the difference between political hacks (very polarised) and normal people (still happy to ticket split)

Except that in some states like CA, the number of hacks and trolls very much outweigh the numbers of normal people.

Compare the election results of San Bernadino and Riverside counties in 2000/2004 vs. any of the Bay Area counties in the same two elections. In the first two, there is a marked change; in the latter, hardly any change.

The bay area had a significant pro-Democratic swing.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2005, 01:01:55 am »
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If the election were held today I'd give Mondale the following states over Reagan:
- Vermont
- Massachusetts
- Rhode Island
- New York
- New Jersey
- Maryland
- District of Columbia
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Washington
- Hawaii

I'd list these as maybe's:
- Maine
- New Hampshire
- Connecticut
- Pennsylvania
- Delaware
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- Oregon
- California
« Last Edit: February 22, 2005, 01:06:19 am by dporceddu »Logged

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