The Dakotas

[PJ]

When, if ever, will the Dakotas become Democratic states. In 2008, I saw polls indicating ND as a tossup early on, and SD had a closer margin than AZ. Plus they each have 1 dem senator. I'd like to think that if MT can become as close as it has in recent elections they can too, but they could be trending with the midwest instead. Opinions?

[illegaloperation]

At the presidential level, I doubt that Democrats have a real shot.

What you see is a result of ticket-splitting: a reputation some of those states have a reputation of.

Obama could have won Arizona in 2008, had the Republican presidential candidate been from anywhere other than Arizona.

[TDAS04]

Probably not anytime soon.  We may be actually becoming even more Republican.  SD used to have two Democratic senators, and before 2010, ND had an all-Democratic congressional delegation for over 20 years.

As for Montana, I agree that some of its trends reflect the Midwest.  People think that Montana is just an all-mountainous, typically Western state, but Eastern Montana is much like North Dakota (flat wheatfields, German/Norwegian ancestry, etc..).

[PJ]

Do you think that part of it might be that ND and SD, or MT for that matter, aren't getting that much national attention? If any of these states had 15 electoral votes would they be more of a focus in the national elections?

[Person Man]

If they had 15 votes, they would probably have a much different culture. In all seriousness, Big Oil and Big Coal will probably keep these states Republican "company towns" for many decades to come. (They have the R&D $ to stay competitive and buy up the brains from Solar, Wind and exotic forms of energy)

[Indy Texas]

The shale boom in North Dakota means the state will likely be more Republican in the near-term.

[Peter the Lefty]

They'd need some pretty big demographic changes.  Which isn't really easy to see happening anytime soon.