LBJ in Texas (1964)

[old timey villain]

Was the native son effect the only reason LBJ did so phenomenally well in Texas compared to the rest of the south?

He was on the ticket with Kennedy in 1960 (and mind you, this was before the civil rights act pissed off the south) and they still only carried the state by 2 points. Texas was also the only former confederate state to trend towards Johnson as well. LBJ even won many areas of the state that were historically more Republican, like West Texas and the panhandle and actually improved upon Kennedy's performance in east Texas, the area of the state with the most blacks and consequently the area where white voters would be most likely to turn on Johnson for his stance on civil rights.

Not that I expected Johnson to lose Texas, but I figured he would have received some of the backlash that he got in the rest of the south, especially in the eastern part of the state. I mean look at the border between Louisiana and Texas, you don't even need a real border when the line between Goldwater and Johnson support is basically the same thing.



I read that LBJ put a lot of time, money and effort into winning Texas and recruited Lady Bird to go a on a big campaign swing through the state as well. Besides that, anybody have an explanation?

[TDAS04]

Well, Texas was probably much less hostile towards the Civil Rights Act than the Deep South or even states such as Arkansas, Virginia, or Florida.  It certainly is different from the Deep South.  West Texas would probably swing LBJ's direction since it's as Western as it is Southern.

Oklahoma actually swung further in 1964 than Texas; Oklahoma has many cultural similarities to Texas.  Both are part of the peripheral South, but more racially moderate than much of the South.  Texas had a large presence (though not as large as today) of Mexican-Americans (and Oklahoma several Native Americans) and this added diversity may have contributed to more support for civil rights.  Texas had already sent a Mexican-American to Congress in 1961.

[DINGO Joe]

You see a similar pattern in 1948 when Strom Thurmond dominates N. Louisiana but rapidly drops off in Texas and Arkansas.  Many counties (parishes) were dominated by bosses and machines back then, I guess East Texas and Arkansas tended to be a little more pragmatic (though certainly not enlightened).  Catholic Acadiana was whole other creature too.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Was the native son effect the only reason LBJ did so phenomenally well in Texas compared to the rest of the south?

He was on the ticket with Kennedy in 1960 (and mind you, this was before the civil rights act pissed off the south) and they still only carried the state by 2 points. Texas was also the only former confederate state to trend towards Johnson as well. LBJ even won many areas of the state that were historically more Republican, like West Texas and the panhandle and actually improved upon Kennedy's performance in east Texas, the area of the state with the most blacks and consequently the area where white voters would be most likely to turn on Johnson for his stance on civil rights.

Johnson may have gotten backlash for the CRA in 1964, but that never translated after that.  After all, most of the segregationist politicians stayed Democrats (e.g. Robert Byrd, Fritz Hollings, George Wallace)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state was split between Dallas and urban blacks and conservatives in the South.  After, RF ran and California and Ohio became the swing state in 68 on account of opposing Vietnam, urbanized voters couldn't make up the difference with the swath of conservatives.

[DINGO Joe]

There is one other thing, DFW swung 18 points towards Johnson vs 1960 (vs the state swing of 13) and DFW made up about 20% of the state vote.  Probably in part to the whole "Killing Kennedy" thing.

 I actually found a few East Texas counties where Goldwater did better than Nixon and overall that seemed to be Johnson weakest region swingwise.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Was the native son effect the only reason LBJ did so phenomenally well in Texas compared to the rest of the south?

He was on the ticket with Kennedy in 1960 (and mind you, this was before the civil rights act pissed off the south) and they still only carried the state by 2 points. Texas was also the only former confederate state to trend towards Johnson as well. LBJ even won many areas of the state that were historically more Republican, like West Texas and the panhandle and actually improved upon Kennedy's performance in east Texas, the area of the state with the most blacks and consequently the area where white voters would be most likely to turn on Johnson for his stance on civil rights.

Johnson may have gotten backlash for the CRA in 1964, but that never translated after that.  After all, most of the segregationist politicians stayed Democrats (e.g. Robert Byrd, Fritz Hollings, George Wallace)

Yeah.  Carter was strong in Goldwater areas in '76 and did better than the national average there in '80.  Clearly, it wasn't just civil rights driving those areas to the GOP.

[DINGO Joe]

Was the native son effect the only reason LBJ did so phenomenally well in Texas compared to the rest of the south?

He was on the ticket with Kennedy in 1960 (and mind you, this was before the civil rights act pissed off the south) and they still only carried the state by 2 points. Texas was also the only former confederate state to trend towards Johnson as well. LBJ even won many areas of the state that were historically more Republican, like West Texas and the panhandle and actually improved upon Kennedy's performance in east Texas, the area of the state with the most blacks and consequently the area where white voters would be most likely to turn on Johnson for his stance on civil rights.

Johnson may have gotten backlash for the CRA in 1964, but that never translated after that.  After all, most of the segregationist politicians stayed Democrats (e.g. Robert Byrd, Fritz Hollings, George Wallace)

Yeah.  Carter was strong in Goldwater areas in '76 and did better than the national average there in '80.  Clearly, it wasn't just civil rights driving those areas to the GOP.

Of course, there were radical changes in the electorate makeup of most of those counties between 64 and 76.

[DINGO Joe]

BTW, the popular vote swing in Florida was minimal between 1960 and 1964, but the county by county swings in both directions were outrageous.

[Indy Texas]

If LBJ hadn't been from Texas, he still probably would have gotten in the high 50s that year. He basically would have performed similarly to the way he did in the Border South states.

Goldwater hurt the Republicans in the Panhandle and Central Texas. Republicans there voted for LBJ or stayed home for the same reason Republicans in other parts of the country did - they found Goldwater's platform to be abhorrent. My grandfather tells me the only time he's ever voted for a Democrat for president was in 1964.

Some places in East Texas trended Republican, but for whatever reason, racial animosity seems to decrease markedly once you get west of the Sabine River (dividing Louisiana and Texas). Strom Thurmond didn't do well in East Texas and George Wallace didn't either in 1968.

[Mechaman]

If LBJ hadn't been from Texas, he still probably would have gotten in the high 50s that year. He basically would have performed similarly to the way he did in the Border South states.

Goldwater hurt the Republicans in the Panhandle and Central Texas. Republicans there voted for LBJ or stayed home for the same reason Republicans in other parts of the country did - they found Goldwater's platform to be abhorrent. My grandfather tells me the only time he's ever voted for a Democrat for president was in 1964.

Some places in East Texas trended Republican, but for whatever reason, racial animosity seems to decrease markedly once you get west of the Sabine River (dividing Louisiana and Texas). Strom Thurmond didn't do well in East Texas and George Wallace didn't either in 1968.

This.

There was more on Goldwater's platform than just opposition to the CRA of 1964.  His economic/fiscal policies, definitely, scared a lot of holy roller types who voted Democratic who were dye-in-the-wool racists.  Which is why you see some odd voting patterns in some states.

[DINGO Joe]

While NW Louisiana and East Texas are adjacent, the demographics are considerably different.  NW LA is 40% African American, while East Texas is 20%. 

[Indy Texas]

While NW Louisiana and East Texas are adjacent, the demographics are considerably different.  NW LA is 40% African American, while East Texas is 20%. 

Virtually all the black population in northern Louisiana is in Shreveport or in East Carroll Parish and the other counties that border the Mississippi River. In between are some of the most rabidly conservative/racist white people you will ever encounter.

In East Texas, the epicenter of conservative Republicans has always been the Tyler-Longview area (Smith and Gregg counties). This actually predates the integration/civil rights issues of the '50s and '60s and has to do with the timber industry. A lot of the wealthy timber families there were particularly opposed to FDR and the New Deal and spent a great deal of money on what was essentially a 1930s version of the Koch Brothers' free market advocacy. I think they also owned the local newspapers and ensured that they carried an anti-Democrat message.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, in North Louisiana the racism was virulent no matter where the white people lived with the slightly modest exceptions of Vernon Parish (military) and Natchitoches (unusually large Catholic presence for N. Louisiana).  Shreveport was famous for having a particularly nasty Sheriff in the 50s and 60s.

As for the demographics, the pattern is far more checker boarded .  The only parishes with fewer than 20% A-A population in N. Louisiana are:

Sabine and Vernon along the Texas border. 

Caldwell, Grant and LaSalle between Alexandria and Monroe.  LaSalle is arguably the most virulent parish in the state.

And West Carroll which is, shockingly, just west of East Carroll.

The only other parishes below 30% are Bossier and Union.

Not including Shreveport (Caddo) and the parishes along the Mississippi, the following N. Louisiana parishes have  above 40% A-A populations:

Natchitoches
Bienville
Lincoln
Claiborne (50.6)
Morehouse

with Red River at 39.9 and DeSoto at 39.1

Everybody else is above 30%

Back in 1964 before suburbanization in Shreveport, Caddo was certainly whiter while Bossier and DeSoto were blacker but the region as a whole was around 40% then and now.