Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The by-election caused by the death of Brian Adam (SNP) has been called for the 20th of June. Donside is the successor constituency to Aberdeen North and covers the north of the city. It is a safe SNP seat (held since 2003), with a substantial Labour vote and invisible levels of support for anyone else. Labour will have led here at the last General Election and weren't far behind at the local elections last year, but the Scottish voting patterns are different for different types of election so don't read too much into that (particularly the former).

Adam's majority in 2011 was 26.9% and was notionally 13.1% in 2007.

[You kip if you want to...]

What should ScotsLab be aiming for here?

[DC Al Fine]

What should ScotsLab be aiming for here?

A respectable 2nd?

[afleitch]

What should ScotsLab be aiming for here?

A respectable 2nd?

A win isn't out of the question.  The last national poll did project a larger victory for the SNP than they won in 2011. Adam did have a large personal vote but the locals last year were still favourable to the SNP.

[You kip if you want to...]

UKIP's standing. What a laugh.

[Leftbehind]

lol be interesting none-the-less; largely presumed they'd just be mopping up the minority Tory vote like they done here in the North in earlier by-elections, but there's barely any of that there!

[afleitch]

Scotland got it's first French MSP. Christian Allard was sworn in as an SNP list MSP yesterday afte rlist MSP Mark McDonald resigned his seat to become a candidate in the by-election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22538511

[afleitch]

It's all been a very quiet affair.

Scottish Labour's rightward swing continues with Labour candidate Willie Young backing the re-introduction of tuition fees.

[Harry Hayfield]

Here's Aberdeen, Donside constituency


and how it compares to the Westminster seats


(Red is Aberdeen North, Yellow is Gordon)

[afleitch]

The aerial photo demonstrates perhaps why they called it Donside rather than Aberdeen Northern. Of course Aberdeen Central is the real 'Aberdeen North' with the Aberdeen North constituency at Westminster being the closest to the Aberdeen North that existed from 198-1997.

Anyhow, the seat attracted 17 candidates in 2011, this time round it only has 9. As for spoilers, we have UKIP of course who we are told are less popular than genital warts. If they are more popular than we had assumed (on the same level as oral herpes perhaps) then while they may zap the Tory entrails, they may take a little more off Labour than the SNP.

2011 and to a greater extent the 2012 local elections were all about traffic in Aberdeen, which for the environs such as these is a big deal when it takes you 30 minutes to get into the centre of the city despite being able to see it on the horizon. The Aberdeen Bypass Western Peripheral Route is still an issue here even though it hasn't been built. Dyce, the new industrial town next to the Airport will benefit greatly from the project as will the clues-in-the-name Bridge of Don. However it's the Haudagain roundabout, probably the worst in Scotland which isn't getting developed until after the bypass which is the only defining issue in this election.

The National Front of course blame the road congestion on immigrants. Seriously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This was today. Counting ongoing: latest twatter rumours suggest a swing of about 9% or something to Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SNP hold

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SNP 42.0, Labour 33.3

SNP maj. 2,025 (8.7)

[Harry Hayfield]

Full Result
Mark McDonald, SNP     9814   41.97%
Willie Young, Lab     7789   33.31%
Christine Jardine, Lib Dem     1940    8.29%
Ross Thomson, Con     1791    7.66%
Otto Inglis, UKIP     1128    4.82%
Rhonda Reekie, Green      410    1.75%
Dave MacDonald, NF      249    1.06%
Tom Morrow, SCHP      222    0.94%
James Trolland, Ind       35    0.14%
SNP HOLD with a majority of 2,025 (8.66%) on a swing from SNP to Lab of 9.10%

[minionofmidas]

That's actually slightly better for UKIP than I expected.

[afleitch]

A bigger gap between the SNP and Labour than we saw in the 2012 locals. Big chunk of the personal vote has dropped but not as close as I had feared.

[Harry Hayfield]

Here's the constituency forecast based on Aberdeen, Donside (Orkney and Shetland are both Lib Dem HOLDS)