Florida Megathread

[Maxwell]

Jane Castor, Tampa's first female and first openly LGBT police chief, has changed her registration to Democratic. Could be an interesting mayoral candidate a few years down the road.

And who she was before?

Republican.


Also, Mary Mulhern, a former member of the Tampa City Council, is considering running in FL-13. She would be the third Tampa-based candidate Dems have attempted to run in FL-13 in as many years. Like the previous two, she will not win.

So is David Jolly just going to become a long term incumbent in a neutral district now?

[Donerail]

Jane Castor, Tampa's first female and first openly LGBT police chief, has changed her registration to Democratic. Could be an interesting mayoral candidate a few years down the road.

And who she was before?

Republican.


Also, Mary Mulhern, a former member of the Tampa City Council, is considering running in FL-13. She would be the third Tampa-based candidate Dems have attempted to run in FL-13 in as many years. Like the previous two, she will not win.

So is David Jolly just going to become a long term incumbent in a neutral district now?

Who knows? He hasn't announced yet, either, and rumor has it that he's seriously interested in Rubio's seat.

[Donerail]

Darden Rice is rumored to be interested in the FL-13 race.

[Donerail]

Darden Rice is rumored to be interested in the FL-13 race.

This probably doesn't matter now - Dem candidate Eric Lynn posted a haul over $400K this past quarter.

[Donerail]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

[windjammer]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

[JerryArkansas]

Oh god there is going to be many pickup opertunities.  Dems lose one with Grahmn,  pick one up in Orlando most likely, the 13, and maybe the 26.  So a net gain of about 1 or 2.

[Talleyrand]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

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Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

[windjammer]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

Wait wait,
Gwen Graham's district isn't already "safe rep"?

[JerryArkansas]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

Wait wait,
Gwen Graham's district isn't already "safe rep"?

Oh god no, it only has a cook PVI of R+6.  Not to bad.  Hardly easy to win, but not impossible

[DrScholl]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

No, she would just run in FL-5, where she could easily beat Corinne Brown in the primary.

[Pandaguineapig]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

No, she would just run in FL-5, where she could easily beat Corinne Brown in the primary.

Not in a majority minority primary, Daddy can't help her out there

[Gass3268]

Great News!

Unfortunate for Gwen Graham, but she can take 2016 off and then get ready for a statewide race in 2018.

[Donerail]

If this means Corrine Brown remains and Gwen Graham goes the ruling will be deeply disappointing. If the new FL-05 elects Graham that'd be a dream come true.

[Dereich]

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

[Donerail]

Jumping on the Graham for Senate 2018 bandwagon now.

[JerryArkansas]

Looking past the Brown and Graham contest, this ruling really doesn't hurt many incumbents.  If they go for a least change map, which is hard, all incumbents besides Jolly would run in districts which match the current vote by about 3 points. 

[Gass3268]

Looking past the Brown and Graham contest, this ruling really doesn't hurt many incumbents.  If they go for a least change map, which is hard, all incumbents besides Jolly would run in districts which match the current vote by about 3 points. 

I think a GOP Rep in the Orlando is gonna take a hit. Grayson's seat is already 62% and there is a lot of Dem voters in the area that were in Brown's seat. Also the 26th will become a few more points Democratic, meaning Curbelo will probably be in more trouble than he actually was. Will probably result in D+2 in 2016.

[JerryArkansas]

Looking past the Brown and Graham contest, this ruling really doesn't hurt many incumbents.  If they go for a least change map, which is hard, all incumbents besides Jolly would run in districts which match the current vote by about 3 points. 

I think a GOP Rep in the Orlando is gonna take a hit. Grayson's seat is already 62% and there is a lot of Dem voters in the area that were in Brown's seat. Also the 26th will become a few more points Democratic, meaning Curbelo will probably be in more trouble than he actually was. Will probably result in D+2 in 2016.

With what I was drawing earlier, I had the map rigged to where Ted Yoho would run in the new 2nd, Sandy Adams in my new 3rd, which took in Gainesville and the coast, and John Mica would run in the new 6th.  It would all rely on Yoho and where he ran.  As for the 26th, I shore up Curbelo and give the city of Homestead to the 27th.  The city is not that big, only puts the 27th about 40 thousand over pop equality.  Just trade some precincts in the north.  It's not hard to keep the gains down to 1, assuming the 18th is picked up by reps.

[136or142]

So, can the Republicans appeal this to the U.S Supreme Court so as to delay its implementation until 2018?

[windjammer]

So, can the Republicans appeal this to the U.S Supreme Court so as to delay its implementation until 2018?

I'm obviously not a lawyer and hopefully Badger muon, torie or Lief will confirm what I will say. But the FL supreme court ruled that it violated the FL constitution (the anti gerrymander amendment). So I don't believe they can appeal.

[Pandaguineapig]

So, can the Republicans appeal this to the U.S Supreme Court so as to delay its implementation until 2018?

I'm obviously not a lawyer and hopefully Badger muon, torie or Lief will confirm what I will say. But the FL supreme court ruled that it violated the FL constitution (the anti gerrymander amendment). So I don't believe they can appeal.

But they can appeal on the grounds that the FSC overstepped its bounds or that they misinterpreted the Florida constitution

[DrScholl]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

No, she would just run in FL-5, where she could easily beat Corinne Brown in the primary.

Not in a majority minority primary, Daddy can't help her out there

Uhm, majority minority districts vote for white candidates, just look at TN-9. Plus, Corrine Brown is a complete disaster, so it's not like Graham could not dispatch her fairly easily.

[Pandaguineapig]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

No, she would just run in FL-5, where she could easily beat Corinne Brown in the primary.

Not in a majority minority primary, Daddy can't help her out there

Uhm, majority minority districts vote for white candidates, just look at TN-9. Plus, Corrine Brown is a complete disaster, so it's not like Graham could not dispatch her fairly easily.

Yeah after pretending to be a moderate and voting against Pelosi I doubt she can do an about face and win a liberal Majority minority district where her daddy isn't going to help her. Cohen also only won in tn-9 because a large number of Black candidates split the AA vote allowing him to win with only 25% or so

[DrScholl]

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.