Florida Megathread
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #600 on: July 09, 2015, 05:04:04 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways
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DrScholl
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« Reply #601 on: July 09, 2015, 05:07:46 PM »

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.
Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

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Basically RIP Gwen Graham.

No, she would just run in FL-5, where she could easily beat Corinne Brown in the primary.
Not in a majority minority primary, Daddy can't help her out there

Uhm, majority minority districts vote for white candidates, just look at TN-9. Plus, Corrine Brown is a complete disaster, so it's not like Graham could not dispatch her fairly easily.
Yeah after pretending to be a moderate and voting against Pelosi I doubt she can do an about face and win a liberal Majority minority district where her daddy isn't going to help her. Cohen also only won in tn-9 because a large number of Black candidates split the AA vote allowing him to win with only 25% or so

Speaker of the House votes don't matter much in Democratic primaries
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SawxDem
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« Reply #602 on: July 09, 2015, 05:10:14 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways

You're acting like there won't be more opportunities for her down the road, and you're acting like the governor's mansion isn't going to be open in 2018.

Not even gonna talk about the blatant sexism you're spewing all over the thread.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #603 on: July 09, 2015, 05:10:54 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways
It wasn't an activist decision and Graham would easily defeat Brown, because Brown is a moron. It's not like makes a difference to Republicans anyway, there is no net gain here for them.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #604 on: July 09, 2015, 05:12:21 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways

You're acting like there won't be more opportunities for her down the road, and you're acting like the governor's mansion isn't going to be open in 2018.

Not even gonna talk about the blatant sexism you're spewing all over the thread.
[/b]
Why because I pointed out that she like many candidates on both sides of the spectrum would be nowhere without there name? Was it misandrist when people made daddy comments about George W. Bush?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #605 on: July 09, 2015, 05:15:06 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways
It wasn't an activist decision and Graham would easily defeat Brown, because Brown is a moron. It's not like makes a difference to Republicans anyway, there is no net gain here for them.

It was an activist decision in that it was made along party lines to benefit one party, All im going to say in regards to a fl-5 primary is that you'll be dissapointed counting on a white candidate in a primary that will be at least 70% AA
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DrScholl
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« Reply #606 on: July 09, 2015, 05:25:27 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways
It wasn't an activist decision and Graham would easily defeat Brown, because Brown is a moron. It's not like makes a difference to Republicans anyway, there is no net gain here for them.

It was an activist decision in that it was made along party lines to benefit one party, All im going to say in regards to a fl-5 primary is that you'll be dissapointed counting on a white candidate in a primary that will be at least 70% AA

The decision was made based on the law, which the legislature did not follow properly. Republicans left the door open for the map to be challenged.

Black voters do vote for non-black candidates. Tallahassee and Gadsden would be strong Graham territory in the primary, period. People vote for who they know.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #607 on: July 09, 2015, 05:26:08 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways

You're acting like there won't be more opportunities for her down the road, and you're acting like the governor's mansion isn't going to be open in 2018.

Not even gonna talk about the blatant sexism you're spewing all over the thread.
Why because I pointed out that she like many candidates on both sides of the spectrum would be nowhere without there name? Was it misandrist when people made daddy comments about George W. Bush?

Because you brought the fact that she was a woman into it when it wasn't about her being a woman.

Also, the fact that you're unironically using "misandry" (especially when most of those comments were made by men, against a man) isn't helping your case.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #608 on: July 09, 2015, 05:32:34 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways

You're acting like there won't be more opportunities for her down the road, and you're acting like the governor's mansion isn't going to be open in 2018.

Not even gonna talk about the blatant sexism you're spewing all over the thread.
Why because I pointed out that she like many candidates on both sides of the spectrum would be nowhere without there name? Was it misandrist when people made daddy comments about George W. Bush?

Because you brought the fact that she was a woman into it when it wasn't about her being a woman.

Also, the fact that you're unironically using "misandry" (especially when most of those comments were made by men, against a man) isn't helping your case.
I was bringing up the fact that her victory in 2012 was more as a result of her father than political skill, if using "daddy's little girl" as a joke offends you im sorry about that. Also I used misandry to mock how you feel connecting a clueless idiot to their father's success is somehow insulting other features about themselves
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Donerail
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« Reply #609 on: July 09, 2015, 05:50:54 PM »

So, can the Republicans appeal this to the U.S Supreme Court so as to delay its implementation until 2018?

No. The Florida Supreme Court is the final arbiter of Florida law, including the Florida Constitution's Fair Districts Amendment.
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Dereich
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« Reply #610 on: July 09, 2015, 06:55:27 PM »

Downtown Jacksonville won't dump Corrine, ESPECIALLY for Graham. She's done.

That won't be the only part of the district, Tallahassee and Gadsden County will make up a good portion, which is Graham's territory.
Dude just admit the activist decision while getting you a net gain has cost you daddy's little girl, theres a good chance she would have lost reelection anyways
It wasn't an activist decision and Graham would easily defeat Brown, because Brown is a moron. It's not like makes a difference to Republicans anyway, there is no net gain here for them.


Corrine Brown has done an excellent job securing patronage for her district (which I BELIEVE will make up the majority of the new district) or, at very least, has appeared to her constituents to do so. There is little to no chance she'll be dumped for an unproven, white, junior congresswoman whose main claim to fame was being especially appealing to white Southerners, few of whom will be in this new district. I have no doubt she'll have opportunities down the line, but there's no way she beats Corrine in a primary.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #611 on: July 09, 2015, 07:11:12 PM »

Orangeman is strongly considering running against Jolly.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #612 on: July 09, 2015, 08:21:53 PM »


YEEEEES Please!
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #613 on: July 09, 2015, 08:24:06 PM »

oh my god yes please
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #614 on: July 09, 2015, 08:46:18 PM »


David Jolly is the luckiest Congressman. First he gets Alex Sink, then the Dems fail to run anybody, now Charlie Crist. Good stuff.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #615 on: July 09, 2015, 09:11:48 PM »

I would not at all count Crist out in a non-gerrymandered FL-13. That is his home ground and if it ends up being D+3, he's probably in the driver's seat with presidential turnout.
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Donerail
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« Reply #616 on: July 09, 2015, 09:26:04 PM »

The best-known politician in the county running in a district that went for Obama by ten points in 2012, and Republicans are cheering? What is wrong with y'all?

Look, I know I'm the forum's resident Crist hack, but this is Pinellas County. This is where Charlie Crist got his start in politics, and it's probably the only county that Crist won while running as a Republican, independent, and Democrat. People know him here, people like him here, and you could not draw a Congressional seat more tailor-made for Charlie Crist than a new St. Pete based FL-13. St. Pete voters love Charlie, in a way that the rest of the state doesn't. I'd understand your laughter if he was considering running in Orlando or Miami, but this is St. Petersburg. D+1.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #617 on: July 10, 2015, 12:08:51 AM »


Strangely enough, I'm okay with this. Pinellas County is much different from the governor's race - and even if it wasn't gerrymandered, I'd consider this a toss-up if he ran.
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« Reply #618 on: July 10, 2015, 01:26:22 AM »

Meh. Crist stands for absolutely nothing. I would not be surprised at all if he ends up as a Libertarian or Green by 2020. He was definitely the lesser of two evils against Rick Scott, but Jolly's pretty inoffensive atm. Jolly gets my tentative endorsement here - at least I can have an idea of what to expect from him.
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windjammer
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« Reply #619 on: July 10, 2015, 03:22:48 AM »

Jolly was considering a senate bid.

Maybe he will run for senate if his district is significantly altered?
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windjammer
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« Reply #620 on: July 10, 2015, 04:14:53 AM »

This is Graham's district without Tallahassee.


So she's toast.
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windjammer
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« Reply #621 on: July 10, 2015, 04:17:48 AM »

Sorry for the third post but:

Honestly, what Graham should do would be to declare for Governor right now. She was going to do that anyway.
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« Reply #622 on: July 10, 2015, 04:27:18 AM »

Would be over 70% white... yikes.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #623 on: July 10, 2015, 04:55:17 AM »

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..
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Donerail
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« Reply #624 on: July 10, 2015, 06:26:58 AM »

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.
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