Florida Megathread
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Author Topic: Florida Megathread  (Read 73038 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #625 on: July 10, 2015, 07:44:12 AM »

Corinne Brown released a statement criticizing the court's decision. What exactly is her problem? The seat would still be safe Democratic.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #626 on: July 10, 2015, 08:27:08 AM »

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #627 on: July 10, 2015, 08:28:17 AM »

Corinne Brown released a statement criticizing the court's decision. What exactly is her problem? The seat would still be safe Democratic.

Safe Democratic isn't equal "Safe Brown"...
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Donerail
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« Reply #628 on: July 10, 2015, 08:32:33 AM »

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #629 on: July 10, 2015, 08:38:00 AM »

Crist is an opportunist, not a lunatic. He'd run as a D or I and win.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #630 on: July 10, 2015, 08:39:21 AM »

Corinne Brown released a statement criticizing the court's decision. What exactly is her problem? The seat would still be safe Democratic.

With the current district, she is guaranteed to a) never have a primary challenge and b) never have a viable general election challenge. It can only go downhill from here.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #631 on: July 10, 2015, 08:55:42 AM »

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.
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Donerail
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« Reply #632 on: July 10, 2015, 09:28:22 AM »

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #633 on: July 10, 2015, 09:32:05 AM »

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?

He didn't campaign exclusively in Pinellas county. There's a difference between winning a congressional district or county in a Gubernatorial race and winning it on a Congressional level.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #634 on: July 10, 2015, 10:04:39 AM »

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.

I saw completely different projected maps of the district on DKE. And it wasn't majority Black, BTW - about 45% White and 45% Black
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Brittain33
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« Reply #635 on: July 10, 2015, 10:06:18 AM »

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?

He didn't campaign exclusively in Pinellas county. There's a difference between winning a congressional district or county in a Gubernatorial race and winning it on a Congressional level.

And there's a difference between running in a 2014 electorate and a presidential electorate. At a general level "there are no sure things" is hard to disprove, but the 2014 loss to Rick Scott isn't the last word.
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Donerail
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« Reply #636 on: July 10, 2015, 10:08:51 AM »

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?

He didn't campaign exclusively in Pinellas county. There's a difference between winning a congressional district or county in a Gubernatorial race and winning it on a Congressional level.

No, but Crist's strength in Pinellas relative to his performance in the rest of the state, particularly as a trend over several elections, indicates that he has a natural base here that'll boost him in any Pinellas race.

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.

I saw completely different projected maps of the district on DKE. And it wasn't majority Black, BTW - about 45% White and 45% Black

The Legislature is still the one that gets to redraw the lines. If they see a chance to take out Graham, they'll do it. It's possible to draw an African-American majority district that doesn't touch Graham's, but this is an opportunity to gain a seat to make up for likely losses elsewhere (FL-13, FL-10).

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Brittain33
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« Reply #637 on: July 10, 2015, 10:09:12 AM »

I wonder if there's any chance the legislative Republicans will draw a one-precinct-wide connector from Tampa to the solid Democratic section of Pinellas County just to keep Jolly safe without "crossing Tampa Bay."
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Brittain33
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« Reply #638 on: July 10, 2015, 10:17:01 AM »

The article we've all been looking for:

In wake of historic redistricting decision, here are maps! maps! maps! detailing the possible changes
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Donerail
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« Reply #639 on: July 10, 2015, 10:51:06 AM »

I wonder if there's any chance the legislative Republicans will draw a one-precinct-wide connector from Tampa to the solid Democratic section of Pinellas County just to keep Jolly safe without "crossing Tampa Bay."

Can't see that flying with Fair Districts - the court will just strike it down again.
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Donerail
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« Reply #640 on: July 10, 2015, 12:42:17 PM »

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #641 on: July 10, 2015, 12:44:31 PM »

How Democratic would Jolly's district be?
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Donerail
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« Reply #642 on: July 10, 2015, 12:53:00 PM »

How Democratic would Jolly's district be?

The kind that went for Obama by eight or ten points.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #643 on: July 10, 2015, 04:35:16 PM »

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.
I heard those rumors today at work.
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muon2
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« Reply #644 on: July 10, 2015, 08:55:56 PM »


My take is over on the redistricting board.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #645 on: July 11, 2015, 10:34:38 PM »

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.

Baker said no to running here before St. Pete was added, I don't know why he'd say yes now.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #646 on: July 12, 2015, 12:52:23 AM »

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.

Baker said no to running here before St. Pete was added, I don't know why he'd say yes now.

Probably. But i would like to know more about how he gets his crossover appeal. A moderate pragmatist?
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Donerail
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« Reply #647 on: July 12, 2015, 10:08:15 AM »

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.

Baker said no to running here before St. Pete was added, I don't know why he'd say yes now.

Probably. But i would like to know more about how he gets his crossover appeal. A moderate pragmatist?

As Mayor, Baker focused heavily on investing in Midtown - bringing in a new library, new post office, that kinda thing - and building relationships with the African-American community in St. Pete through moves like appointing a deputy mayor for Midtown (though that was in a race with no partisan labels).
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #648 on: July 12, 2015, 01:25:27 PM »

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.

Baker said no to running here before St. Pete was added, I don't know why he'd say yes now.

Probably. But i would like to know more about how he gets his crossover appeal. A moderate pragmatist?

As Mayor, Baker focused heavily on investing in Midtown - bringing in a new library, new post office, that kinda thing - and building relationships with the African-American community in St. Pete through moves like appointing a deputy mayor for Midtown (though that was in a race with no partisan labels).

Thanks!
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Donerail
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« Reply #649 on: July 13, 2015, 10:58:15 AM »

Jolly in. Announcement next week.
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