These are two of the weakest possible candidates for either party who have a chance of getting nominated.
Patrick failed to get fifty percent of the vote as a Democrat running for reelection in Massachusetts.
Pence ran nine points behind Romney as a candidate for statewide office in Indiana.
Vilsack is an okay running mate for Patrick, with regional appeal in the West and ties to the Obama administration, allowing Patrick to try to sell himself as the third term of Obama.
Playing around Nate Silver's demographics and electoral math calculator, I noticed an interesting trend.
If demographic groups vote at the same rate as in 2016, even adjusting for higher growth among Hispanics and African Americans, Patrick wins the same amount of states as Obama did.
If the White vote dips to 38%, Republicans pick up Florida.
If the White vote dips to 37% for Patrick, Republicans pick up Ohio.
If the White vote dips to 36%, Republicans pick up Virginia, New Hampshire and Iowa, enough to win the electoral college even with a 0.2% loss in the popular vote.
However, you would expect Patrick to be slightly stronger in New Hampshire, and Vilsack to help in Iowa.
So, my guess for the default map is...
Patrick would have a 55% or so chance of winning.
There is a higher possibility of a landslide as the two candidates may be easier to stereotype. If Pence comes across a bible thumper and Patrick remains an above-average Democrat, Patrick could win more states than Obama. If Patrick says something too liberal, he may lose Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennysylvania.
