Cuomo VS Jeb

[Mister Mets]

Let's say the 2016 presidential election is between two individuals currently acknowledged to be top-tier candidates: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (son of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo) and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (the son and brother of two Presidents.)

Instead of giving the ticket, I'll list the shortlist out of curiosity about how the veep could change the results.

Cuomo's Vice-Presidential shortlist is Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, newly elected Pennsylvania Governor Allyson Schwartz, California Congressman Xavier Becerra and Transportation Secretary (former Charlotte, NC Mayor) Anthony Foxx.

Bush's Vice-Presidential shortlist is former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, New Mexico Governor Susanna Martinez, New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

How do you see this election going?

[Maxwell]

Nepotism galore. I think Cuomo wins easily due to the negativity that still resonates from the Bush name and the low turnout from generally GOP voters.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Jeb can't win a general election.

[PJ]

I agree that Cuomo would win. For VP Klobuchar or Mccaskill. For Bush, Walker or Martinez.
Cuomo/Klobuchar vs Bush/Walker

Battleground states are WI and IA due to Klobuchar's and Walker's midwestern roots. OH, NV, CO, and NM are safer than usual due to distrust of Bush name, especially with Hispanics, and Bush's immigration flipflop. AZ and FL are closest states. AZ due to women vote for Klobuchar, and hispanic distrust of Bush, FL due to favorite son vs Bush distrust and immigration flipflop. NC also dem due to women vote.

[PJ]

And this is Cuomo/Mccaskill vs Bush/Walker. Mccaskill is the better VP candidiate due to her appeal to moderates. This is why MO is dem, and IA and AZ have larger margins than Cuomo/Klobuchar. WI is as close as FL in 2000. So is FL.

[Mister Mets]

I see Cuomo as a generic Democratic candidate. Bush due to his last name is a weaker Republican candidate. So what would likely be an election that usually favors Republicans becomes a tossup.

Fortunately for Democrats, the electoral math favors them in a tossup. A uniform four percent swing gives Republicans Ohio, Florida and Virginia. But that's only 266 electoral votes.

They would have to swing the Democratic leaning tossups (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire) where Cuomo would be well-positioned.

So, my guess for the default map (Democrats would do this well or better slightly more than half the time.)

Cuomo....48.9% of the popular vote. 272 electoral votes.
Jeb...48.9% of the popular vote. 266 electoral votes.

Leaning Republican...
North Carolina, Florida

Republican leaning Toss-Ups...
Virginia, Ohio

Democratic leaning Toss-Ups...
Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire

Leaning Democratic...
Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico

Veeps could change things a bit...
Schwartz would help Cuomo with the base, and can shore up Pennsylvania, a slight insurance policy should Jeb do better than expected. But there may not be enough geographic diversity in a ticket consisting of two neighboring Northeastern states.

McCaskill and Klobuchar have Washington experience, political chops and would also represent a significant milestone if elected to the White House. They would also represent effective surrogates in the West and Midwest.

Foxx could help keep African American turnout high, and would probably be worth a few points in North Carolina, a state that has become increasingly favorable to Democrats.

Becerra is qualified, charistmatic and would represent a different kind of milestone. Although it's easy to stereotype Democrats from New York and California.

As for Bush, Jindal is smart, young and qualified. But he may be too socially conservative for some. Martinez helps in Western states, and represents a few milestones, as well as a new face for the Republican party. Cruz shores up the base, and serves as a strong right-wing surrogate, although a Texas Republican is easy to stereotype. Ayotte could help in a small swing state, while bringing legislative and prosecutorial experience. And it would be useful to nominate a woman, especially if Cuomo picks Foxx or Becerra. Walker could highlight the shortcomings of Democratic policies and be a good surrogate in the Midwest.

[free my dawg]

Oh god. A Cuomo/Klobuchar ticket would probably get me to stay home (her sponsorship of PIPA was repugnant enough to get me to support her opponent in a primary). Your VP shortlist wreaks of DLC-types, and Cuomo would need someone to sate the base (or McCaskill). Bush would probably pick Walker to help in the Midwest. I'd personally see a Cuomo/Foxx ticket.

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate. But with the shadow of his brother's administration looming over him, it will take a miracle for him to win. Cuomo seems like a generic DLC-type, which is enough for him to pretty much pick anyone and win.

[bballrox4717]

Cuomo with a clear majority of the PV and over 300 EV.

Bush can't win unless the Democratic candidate is terrible. I can think of no more effective way to turn out the Democratic base than to run Bush, and his policies are similar enough to W that for independents, the election essentially becomes a referendum on W's administration.

What's with the lackluster list of Dem VP candidates? I'd pick Schwartz out of the bunch, but we have  much better candidates on the bench.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate.

He's only a candidate because of his name.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So the same last names that could've easily faced each other 28 years ago? Jesus. All this Clinton, Bush, and Cuomo stuff is getting pretty nuts. Am I missing any other names?

[Mister Mets]

Cuomo with a clear majority of the PV and over 300 EV.

Bush can't win unless the Democratic candidate is terrible. I can think of no more effective way to turn out the Democratic base than to run Bush, and his policies are similar enough to W that for independents, the election essentially becomes a referendum on W's administration.

What's with the lackluster list of Dem VP candidates? I'd pick Schwartz out of the bunch, but we have  much better candidates on the bench.

I've made a calculation that Cuomo would want to avoid anyone else in the Northeast (which excludes Booker, Warren, Patrick, and Gilibrand). I also assume he wouldn't want another white guy (which excludes Schweitzer, Warner, O'Malley, Hickenlooper and Sherrod Brown.)

How many others are left? I figured that Klobuchar and McCaskill were more likely selections than Napolitano. I've also heard more chatter about them than, say, Kay Hagan.

And I don't see the Democratic nominee selecting Tammy Baldwin as a running mate.

[Dereich]

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate.

He's only a candidate because of his name.

What? He's the most popular living former Florida Governor and is still seen within the state as the Republican party's intellectual leader. Elsewhere his reputation may be based on his name, but in his home state he's got a lot of goodwill left over, especially among state Republicans. Being popular and experienced in the largest swing state would put anyone on the map as a top candidate.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I think this could produce another 2000 type map.  I think enough people would judge Jeb based on his record and not on his name, so that it makes it close.  Perhaps something like this.  Looks pretty familiar...

Narrow win for Bush.  He may lose the popular vote. 

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate.

He's only a candidate because of his name.

What? He's the most popular living former Florida Governor and is still seen within the state as the Republican party's intellectual leader. Elsewhere his reputation may be based on his name, but in his home state he's got a lot of goodwill left over, especially among state Republicans. Being popular and experienced in the largest swing state would put anyone on the map as a top candidate.

He's only a former governor of Florida because of his name.

My point is that you can't say "oh, if Jeb wasn't a Bush then he'd be a great candidate" when his entire career was possible based off of him being a president's son. So is his future fundraising capabilities.

[Michaelf7777777]

Andrew Cuomo/ Claire MacCaskill - 272 EV's
Jeb Bush/ Susanna Martinez - 266 EV's

[Mister Mets]

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate.

He's only a candidate because of his name.

What? He's the most popular living former Florida Governor and is still seen within the state as the Republican party's intellectual leader. Elsewhere his reputation may be based on his name, but in his home state he's got a lot of goodwill left over, especially among state Republicans. Being popular and experienced in the largest swing state would put anyone on the map as a top candidate.

He's only a former governor of Florida because of his name.

My point is that you can't say "oh, if Jeb wasn't a Bush then he'd be a great candidate" when his entire career was possible based off of him being a president's son. So is his future fundraising capabilities.

Much of the same is true of Cuomo, who was the son of a New York Governor when he got his first political job.

When Jeb first ran for Governor in 1994, he was a respected businessman, even if he was helped at every step along the way by his famous father's connections.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Right, but Mario doesn't make his son a non-starter candidate to many Americans. Nothing negative would come of it.

Jeb is only Jeb because of his last name and Cuomo is only Cuomo because of Mario. But Jeb is screwed (and from everything we know, I seriously doubt he even runs).

[bballrox4717]

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate.

He's only a candidate because of his name.

What? He's the most popular living former Florida Governor and is still seen within the state as the Republican party's intellectual leader. Elsewhere his reputation may be based on his name, but in his home state he's got a lot of goodwill left over, especially among state Republicans. Being popular and experienced in the largest swing state would put anyone on the map as a top candidate.

He's only a former governor of Florida because of his name.

My point is that you can't say "oh, if Jeb wasn't a Bush then he'd be a great candidate" when his entire career was possible based off of him being a president's son. So is his future fundraising capabilities.

Much of the same is true of Cuomo, who was the son of a New York Governor when he got his first political job.

When Jeb first ran for Governor in 1994, he was a respected businessman, even if he was helped at every step along the way by his famous father's connections.

Big difference: The entire country knows who George W Bush is and have already formed an opinion of him. Only New Yorkers and those who follow politics know who Mario Cuomo is.

The point isn't about how Jeb or Andrew Cuomo started their careers and got elected. It's that one of these candidates is able to define his image, and the other can't. If Jeb runs, his brother's presidency is going to follow him the entire way, and there's just no positive spin to it. Yes, it's not fair to Jeb, but it's just preposterous to believe that Jeb can shake his brother off of his candidacy.

[milhouse24]

The 2016 election will be entirely decided by the VP selection. 
I know it sounds silly, but it will be true especially if the presidential nominee is a WASP or Irish Catholic. 

The GOP will likely nominate Rubio, Cruz or Sandoval as the VP and that will bring in lots of Hispanic voters. 

I think Jeb has an edge if his Wife gets out the Hispanic vote for him in swing states like Ohio and Colorado. 

[BluegrassBlueVote]

The 2016 election will be entirely decided by the VP selection. 
I know it sounds silly, but it will be true especially if the presidential nominee is a WASP or Irish Catholic. 

The GOP will likely nominate Rubio, Cruz or Sandoval as the VP and that will bring in lots of Hispanic voters. 

I think Jeb has an edge if his Wife gets out the Hispanic vote for him in swing states like Ohio and Colorado. 

1. Sandoval can't be on a national ticket. He's pro-choice.

2. Jeb's wife hates the spotlight and is thought to have pulled the plug on his 2012 ambitions.

3. Jeb loses in a blowout. He's a Bush in the 2010s.

[milhouse24]

The 2016 election will be entirely decided by the VP selection. 
I know it sounds silly, but it will be true especially if the presidential nominee is a WASP or Irish Catholic. 

The GOP will likely nominate Rubio, Cruz or Sandoval as the VP and that will bring in lots of Hispanic voters. 

I think Jeb has an edge if his Wife gets out the Hispanic vote for him in swing states like Ohio and Colorado. 

1. Sandoval can't be on a national ticket. He's pro-choice.

2. Jeb's wife hates the spotlight and is thought to have pulled the plug on his 2012 ambitions.

3. Jeb loses in a blowout. He's a Bush in the 2010s.

No one cares about the VP's issues, just as long as they are fairly competent and well-spoken.  Dick Cheney has a gay daughter and supports gay marriage and the religious right didn't care.  They want to win the election and for that to happen, the GOP need a hispanic as VP, so Sandoval will get a pass on abortion, just as long as he never talks about it.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

The 2016 election will be entirely decided by the VP selection. 
I know it sounds silly, but it will be true especially if the presidential nominee is a WASP or Irish Catholic. 

The GOP will likely nominate Rubio, Cruz or Sandoval as the VP and that will bring in lots of Hispanic voters. 

I think Jeb has an edge if his Wife gets out the Hispanic vote for him in swing states like Ohio and Colorado. 

1. Sandoval can't be on a national ticket. He's pro-choice.

2. Jeb's wife hates the spotlight and is thought to have pulled the plug on his 2012 ambitions.

3. Jeb loses in a blowout. He's a Bush in the 2010s.

No one cares about the VP's issues, just as long as they are fairly competent and well-spoken.  Dick Cheney has a gay daughter and supports gay marriage and the religious right didn't care.  They want to win the election and for that to happen, the GOP need a hispanic as VP, so Sandoval will get a pass on abortion, just as long as he never talks about it.

No, not at all. Abortion is a non-starter. Cheney having a gay daughter is the reason why he got a free pass on it, and by that point he was already Veep.

[TNF]

There won't ever be another Bush elected to the White House. At least not for a generation, anyway. Seriously, two failed family presidencies prevented another Adams from entering the White House, and it will certainly prevent another Bush from doing the same.