same sex marriage by state 2016

[WalterMitty]

prediction of ssm by state by the year 2016

[7,052,770]

[WalterMitty]

uh... explain?

[7,052,770]

uh... explain?

Supreme Court decision in June 2013.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

uh... explain?

Supreme Court decision in June 2013.

More like June 2015 or 2016, and I could easily see it taking until June 2017.  The Court can decide both Prop 8 and DOMA in ways favorable to same-sex marriage activists without invoking the equal protection clause and it is clear Kennedy is looking to be a moderate hero and do so.  It'll take a case reaching the Supreme Court from a state in which SSM is not recognized at all to get the court to strike in all 50 states.

[Gass3268]

My guess

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to Nate, support for SSM by State in 2016 will look something like that.

2016:

Considering the lag between the people and legislatures for this kind of issues, I assume roughly half the States will have it.

[greenforest32]

Post November 2016 election guess:

Narrow majority in the Electoral College of 271-267

[Holmes]

I'm being very generous with New Jersey and Colorado. I'm also assuming that prop 8 is struck down in June (if not, grey out California).

Some of your predictions are so ridiculous and out there that I don't believe many of you fully grasp what it would take to get same-sex marriage in most of the states that you guys have it legal in. 2016 is less than 3 years, and only one election (not counting off year elections), away.

[Lief 🗽]

I agree with Holmes' map. No way it's passing in states like Ohio or Michigan or Arizona or Nevada. You guys realize that Republicans still control those states, right?

[greenforest32]

I agree with Holmes' map. No way it's passing in states like Ohio or Michigan or Arizona or Nevada. You guys realize that Republicans still control those states, right?

If you look at the current polling for those states and project 3.5 years more of increasing public support it's not unrealistic to have initiatives pass in those four states in Nov. 2016, completely bypassing the state legislature and Governor.

And for New Mexico I was counting on a lawsuit at the state Supreme Court like Iowa in 2009. There's potential for that in Wyoming, Indiana, and Pennsylvania too but I didn't include those in my guess.

[Thomas D]

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm being very generous with New Jersey and Colorado. I'm also assuming that prop 8 is struck down in June (if not, grey out California).

Some of your predictions are so ridiculous and out there that I don't believe many of you fully grasp what it would take to get same-sex marriage in most of the states that you guys have it legal in. 2016 is less than 3 years, and only one election (not counting off year elections), away.

I assume the thread intended 2016 as in "post-November 2016". So that's two election cycles.

[Gass3268]

The Nevada legislature is starting the process of getting a ballot measure to overturn the constitutional ban.They will have to pass the amendment in two consecutive terms before putting it up to the people in 2016. The Governor has no legal say in the matter, only thing that matters is the Dems keep their majorities in 2014.

The reason I predicted Michigan and Ohio is that both states have initiatives, by 2016 I could see both states being open to marriage equality.

I feel like the pressure is going to get to be too big for the Suburban Philly GOP and they will cross over to support legalization.

Either Christie will sign a SSM bill or they will put it up to a referendum.

New Mexico and Wyoming are long shoots and I probably should have left it off.

[Holmes]

I assume the thread intended 2016 as in "post-November 2016". So that's two election cycles.

Ok, then add Nevada to my map, that's it. Assuming Dems keep the state legislature after 2014. Keep in mind that there has never been a campaign to replace a constitutional amendment against gay marriage with one to allow it, so we don't know how it would play out.

[Gass3268]

I assume the thread intended 2016 as in "post-November 2016". So that's two election cycles.

Ok, then add Nevada to my map, that's it. Assuming Dems keep the state legislature after 2014. Keep in mind that there has never been a campaign to replace a constitutional amendment against gay marriage with one to allow it, so we don't know how it would play out.

Oregon is probably going to do it in 2014.