How many states will SSM be legal in in 2016?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Currently, there are 12. How many in 2016, 3 years away and the next presidential election?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Hopefully the last option.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Either 1 or 5.

[Brittain33]

Either 1 or 5.

[TDAS04]

Either 1 or 5.

This, but probably 1.

[Mr. Morden]

Either 1 or 5.

Doubtful.  I don't think SSM is going to be repealed in states that already have it any time soon.

[TNF]

Either 1 or 5.

This assumes Sestak wins in Pennsylvania next year, but I don't think that's too far fetched of an assumption to make. Corbett is, surprisingly, one of the weakest Republican Governors out there. This map also kind of assumes Snyder and Walker win re-election, as does Christie, which leaves New Jersey the only state in the Northeast that discriminates against same-sex couples in marriage rights as of 2016. I also threw California in here because I figure the Supreme Court will ultimately just strike down the California ban and leave the rest of it in place, along with striking down the Defense of Marriage Act, which would, in theory, legalize same-sex marriage everywhere, but in practice almost assuredly won't because reactionaries control much of the United States' state and local legislatures.

[Badger]

 

Either 1 or 5.

This assumes Sestak wins in Pennsylvania next year, but I don't think that's too far fetched of an assumption to make. Corbett is, surprisingly, one of the weakest Republican Governors out there. This map also kind of assumes Snyder and Walker win re-election, as does Christie, which leaves New Jersey the only state in the Northeast that discriminates against same-sex couples in marriage rights as of 2016. I also threw California in here because I figure the Supreme Court will ultimately just strike down the California ban and leave the rest of it in place, along with striking down the Defense of Marriage Act, which would, in theory, legalize same-sex marriage everywhere, but in practice almost assuredly won't because reactionaries control much of the United States' state and local legislatures.

I don't think SSM passing in PA is likely even if Sestak is elected; the leg district (especially in the Senate) are too favorable for the GOP to lose majorities in both houses baring a 2006 or 08 Dem landslide (not at all likely IMO). There's just not enough groundswell for democrats to hold their entire caucuses--including socially conservative casey dems and some African-Americans still leery of SSM notwithstanding Obama's backing--plus picking off enough (any?) GOP legislators willing to cross party lines to rack up enough votes to get such a measure to Sestak's desk.

[badgate]

I thought Sestak was waiting for 2016 to challenge Pat Toomey.

[publicunofficial]

California, Oregon, Illinois, Hawaii, Colorado, New Jersey, & Nevada will happen either before or on Election Day 2016.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin might get it depending on how their Governor and other down-ballot races end up.

[TDAS04]

California, Oregon, Illinois, Hawaii, Colorado, New Jersey, & Nevada will happen either before or on Election Day 2016.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin might get it depending on how their Governor and other down-ballot races end up.

In won't be on the Wisconsin ballot until at least 2018, unless the Republican legislature acts now to approve the amendment (very unlikely).  Wisconsin requires that constitutional amendments be approved by the legislature during two consecutive sessions before appearing on the ballot.

[Cryptic]

Either 1 or 5.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I probably should have used better options. But I made this thread at 3 am.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Christie has basically said he'll step back and let the voters vote on an amendment, so NJ will likely have it within the next few years.

I'll also go with 1 or 5. There's too many small states that aren't going to legalize it any time soon without court decision.

[Benj]

Hopefully the last, realistically the first. The current 12, plus Illinois, Hawaii, California and maybe Oregon. Nevada can't legalize until 2016, Colorado similar unless the referendum movement really picks up steam. New Mexico won't get a new governor until 2018, most likely, and New Jersey not until 2017. Totally unrealistic in any other state by 2016 barring a Democratic miracle in state legislative elections in 2013/14/15 somewhere with a heavy GOP gerrymander like Pennsylvania, Virginia or Michigan. Could be a major shift by 2020, though.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

states with a good chance of gay marriage by the end of 2016 (current in red, new in green):

[pbrower2a]

states with a good chance of gay marriage by the end of 2016 (current in red, new in green):

Republican pols are getting very unpopular in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac just showed a large margin of support for same-sex marriage in Virginia.

Anti-gay sentiment used to be an effective tool for Republicans. It is becoming a Frankenstein's monster. 

[Thomas D]

I suspect the Supreme Court will take the 50 state route next month. If I am wrong I think this will be the map the day after Election day 2016:

[Sol]

Does Alaska still have that bipartisan coalition? If so, I could see them moving towards killing their amendment.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Christie has basically said he'll step back and let the voters vote on an amendment, so NJ will likely have it within the next few years.

I'll also go with 1 or 5. There's too many small states that aren't going to legalize it any time soon without court decision.

My guess is that New Jersey Democrats will reach an agreement after Christie's re-election (provided Dems lock down the State Senate and Assembly again) to put marriage on the ballot. There's been a lot of resistance from Dems on the grounds of principle, but since a statewide vote is a slam dunk, not a lot of people are hung up on that principle anymore.

Don't forget the New Jersey Supreme Court as a wildcard -- it's a very liberal institution that has been looking closely at whether or not civil unions are doing what the court required.

[Benj]

Does Alaska still have that bipartisan coalition? If so, I could see them moving towards killing their amendment.

Sort of. That was only in the Senate to begin with; the Republicans have controlled the House in Alaska for a while. Right now the Alaska Senate is 13 Republicans and 2 Democrats in the majority, 5 Democrats in opposition. (Before the 2012 election it was 10 Democrats and 6 Republicans in the majority, 4 Republicans in opposition.)

[Thomas D]

Bumped for the LOL's 

[Consciously Unconscious]

Wow, we've already passed what the vast majority of those who voted less than a year and a half ago thought it would be.  This is awesome.  I think all states will probably have it by 2016. 

[pbrower2a]

Sorry about the different color scheme, but it comes from a different thread.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 17 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

White -- SSM equality by law.

Others, based upon popularity of SSM :

Green -- more popular than unpopular.
Yellow -- toss-up
Red -- more unpopular than unpopular, with the more intense shades showing more severe unpopularity.

Wyoming will go into the white category within a week. It has three working days in which to seek a stay, and it will need a very strong argument that has failed. Kansas is in the same Federal district with Wyoming, and it has had some same-sex marriages.  The US Supreme Court will not continue stays that exist solely to delay compliance with a lower-court ruling.   
 

[Bojack Horseman]

50, but I'm not so sure the Supreme Court is going to have to rule on this. The circuit courts seem poised to strike down all the remaining bans and the Supreme Court won't need to rule.