Canadian federal election - 2015

[2952-0-0]

Part of me thinks the Conservatives are continuing to attack the Liberals in order to cause the NDP to surge, allowing them to run a campaign accusing the NDP of being the reincarnation of the Bolsheviks who wish to impose Sharia Law and raise a carbon tax of 200%, or something.

[DC Al Fine]

Part of me thinks the Conservatives are continuing to attack the Liberals in order to cause the NDP to surge, allowing them to run a campaign accusing the NDP of being the reincarnation of the Bolsheviks who wish to impose Sharia Law and raise a carbon tax of 200%, or something.

We're not that smart, and we're not that dumb.

[Holmes]

The NDP surge is fairly recent, so these ads were probably produced before it even began. It's not like they're gonna sit on the ads just because the Liberals are slipping.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Conservatives will fair better attacking the Liberals, because that's where they're going to make the most gains. A strong NDP means the Tories can appeal to blue Liberals who are afraid of an NDP victory.

[adma]

The Conservatives will fair better attacking the Liberals, because that's where they're going to make the most gains. A strong NDP means the Tories can appeal to blue Liberals who are afraid of an NDP victory.

Except that there's not much left to gain.  More like, that's where they'll cement the most holds.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Conservatives will fair better attacking the Liberals, because that's where they're going to make the most gains. A strong NDP means the Tories can appeal to blue Liberals who are afraid of an NDP victory.

Except that there's not much left to gain.  More like, that's where they'll cement the most holds.

By gains, I meant gains in the polls, not gains from 2011. The Conservatives wont be making any actual gains this year.

[DL]

The Conservatives will fair better attacking the Liberals, because that's where they're going to make the most gains. A strong NDP means the Tories can appeal to blue Liberals who are afraid of an NDP victory.

You mean all those "blue Liberals" who are terrified that the NDP will NOT increase taxes on people with incomes while the Liberals supposedly will?

[Lincoln Republican]

A couple of questions:

Is the unmentioned intent of the Liberals in this election actually to once again become the official opposition, displacing the NDP in that role, then to work their way to government from there?

If the Liberals finish in third place again, will Trudeau's party leadership still be safe, will it be on shaky ground, or will it be over?

Please discuss.

Thank you.

[Boston Bread]

As long as Trudeau doesn't approach Iggy levels he will stay on because at that point the Liberals will realize have nothing to gain by recycling leaders, and let Trudeau get some experience.

I don't know if this amazes me or makes me laugh. Those ON numbers...

[Holmes]

Those Green numbers in Saskatchewan make me laugh.

[Boston Bread]

On those ON numbers, the NDP would win rural southern Ontario. My model shows them gaining seats like Haldimand-Norfolk, Oxford, Haliburton-Kwartha Lakes-Brock, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Oxford, and Parry Sound-Muskoka.

[Holmes]

I would love for the NDP to take Parry Sound-Muskoka. How does Nippissing look?

[Hatman 🍁]

Those Green numbers in Saskatchewan make me laugh.

Small sample size; ignore.

Interesting to see the Bloc in 2nd place in Quebec, and this poll was done before Duceppe became leader.

[Boston Bread]

I would love for the NDP to take Parry Sound-Muskoka. How does Nippissing look?

My model still shows Liberals taking Nippissing under those numbers. Which sorta makes sense, considering they won it notionally while finishing in 3rd in 2011.

[andrew_c]

Liberals actually finished a close 2nd in Nipissing-Timiskaming in 2011, losing to the Tories by 18 votes.

[MaxQue]

That poll is very bad for Liberals. They seem to quietly going back to 2011 result (19%).

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals actually finished a close 2nd in Nipissing-Timiskaming in 2011, losing to the Tories by 18 votes.

The Liberals won it on the new boundaries, though.

[Boston Bread]

This is my model's overall seat projection, using an average of the recent polls (so it includes Forum, Ipsos, CRA, and Abacus numbers which are less optimistic for the NDP)

With the NDP stagnant in AB and rising in the Maritimes, the NDP's best seat is no longer in Edmonton (though they still manage a respectable 69% in Strathcona) but in St.John's East (70%). You can see the EKOS Green bump in SK rather visibly.  In fact SK is the best province for the Greens in my average now. But what's most significant is the strong rise for the NDP in Ontario, and when compounded with the CPC falling to Hudak levels there they wind up 3rd in the overall seat count.

[Hatman 🍁]

Take that Green result in Sask. with a grain of salt, trust me.

Also, right now considering the Liberals' best province for polling is Newfoundland, so it is unlikely that St. John's East will be the NDP's best seat.

[King of Kensington]

These are great numbers for the NDP, especially in Ontario.  However I think the Ontario Conservative numbers seem a little low to me - that's worse than Harper the first time out in 2004 and worse than what Hudak got. 

[Boston Bread]

The NDP got 32.6% of the vote in NL in 2011. They're at 29% in my average. So there isn't a big drop for the NDP there, more so for the CPC.

Also, directly inputting the EKOS results give me
152 NDP
86 Con
95 Lib
3 Bloc
1 Green
And 1 FetD - due to other polling at 5% in Quebec.
I believe the EKOS poll is underestimating the CPC, however.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP got 32.6% of the vote in NL in 2011. They're at 29% in my average. So there isn't a big drop for the NDP there, more so for the CPC.

Also, directly inputting the EKOS results give me
152 NDP
86 Con
95 Lib
3 Bloc
1 Green
And 1 FetD - due to other polling at 5% in Quebec.
I believe the EKOS poll is underestimating the CPC, however.

EKOS underpolled the Tories by about 3% in 2008 and by a whopping 5.7% in 2011. So while, the Tories are hardly doing well in the polls, I'd wait for a poll that Hatman hasn't faked from another firm to confirm their standing.

[VPH]

Wow, I'd love if the NDP was the government and the Liberals were the official opposition.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP got 32.6% of the vote in NL in 2011. They're at 29% in my average. So there isn't a big drop for the NDP there, more so for the CPC.

Also, directly inputting the EKOS results give me
152 NDP
86 Con
95 Lib
3 Bloc
1 Green
And 1 FetD - due to other polling at 5% in Quebec.
I believe the EKOS poll is underestimating the CPC, however.

Who is polling F&D?

The NDP got 32.6% of the vote in NL in 2011. They're at 29% in my average. So there isn't a big drop for the NDP there, more so for the CPC.

Also, directly inputting the EKOS results give me
152 NDP
86 Con
95 Lib
3 Bloc
1 Green
And 1 FetD - due to other polling at 5% in Quebec.
I believe the EKOS poll is underestimating the CPC, however.

EKOS underpolled the Tories by about 3% in 2008 and by a whopping 5.7% in 2011. So while, the Tories are hardly doing well in the polls, I'd wait for a poll that Hatman hasn't faked from another firm to confirm their standing.

Haha. You know, I single handily was able to ensure Rachel Notley became premier with my l33t polling hacks.

[Boston Bread]

Hatman, the model is assuming a large portion of the "other" vote in Quebec is for FetD. In my weighted poll average the other vote in Quebec is 2% which is far to weak for FetD to win a seat. This is also after I apply a penalty that reduces the "other" vote.

But directly inputting EKOS results which show other at 5% in QC, FetD increases a lot with it. And since my model believes their vote is concentrated in the 2 incumbent's ridings, the proportional swing is large enough to let one win, albeit barely. Roughly 4% "other" is the threshold where my model thinks the FetD starts to be competitive in a riding. (Although only 2-3% of that would actually be for FetD, since 1-2% go to other minor parties).