Canadian federal election - 2015

[lilTommy]

Latest Forum has a clear NDP lead
NDP 34%
LPC 28%
CPC 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/299/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-second/

lol Quebec is the NDP's worst region in that poll, at 31%. Yes, that means they are over 31% in every other region.

The BQ Leader bump, most likely short lived I would think... but it did change up the game in this poll.

[Holmes]

Dead cat's bounce.

[RogueBeaver]

Ibbitson on the state of play.

[Holmes]

The only real unknown that's in play right now, and it's a big one, is how the NDP taking votes from the Liberals in Ontario benefits the Tories, especially in the GTA. It can be the difference between the Tories winning government or not. We all assume that it will help the Tories, and it's a valid assumption, but we don't really know how effective or ineffective the Conservative vote is when the vote is close. The NDP won a majority of seats in the province in 1990 with a 5% lead over the Liberals.  Anything can happen and it can lead to some weird results.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Does anybody know how the two Barrie ridings would vote with these numbers? We have been stuck  with a pretty popular Conservative incumbent named Patrick Brown since 2006. He ended up running and winning the provincial PC nomination so he will not be running this year.

Barrie has also picked up a second seat in redistricting due to the fast growth rate of the city. I wonder if the NDP has any chance at either of the two seats ? Barrie does lean a bit to the right I would imagine, it is a overwhelmingly white suburban soccer mom type of city.

[Boston Bread]

My home before attending university was Barrie, so I'd also be interested if anyone knew what was happening on the ground there.

The Liberals would easily stay in 3rd in both ridings based on recent polls. My model shows the NDP trailing to CPC by 8 in the Springwater-Oro-Medonte half, and by 13 in the Innisfil half. However the CPC is already polling as badly as Hudak did, so pushing the margin further will be difficult.

[Hatman 🍁]

With the Liberals tanking at present, they don't have a shot at either Barrie riding. Both ridings are classic rurban seats, which will make it hard for the Liberals to win in the future.

[Boston Bread]

The Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte riding is friendlier to the Liberals than the old riding of Barrie was, since it takes out the southern part of the city which is full conservative-leaning bedroom communities. This is a case of a rurban riding that would give the Liberals and NDP a better chance than a purely urban riding.

[Poirot]

A few things that happened in nominations:

In Mégantic-L'Erable Christian Paradis is retiring. Luc Berthold, former mayor of Thetford Mines is thinking of running for the Conservatives.

TV journalist Pascale Déry who the Conservative party wanted as candidate in Mont-Royal but lost the nomination will be their candidate in Drummond. She has moved to the riding to campaign. The Bloc candidate is Diane Bourgeois, a former MP but for Terrebonne-Blainville.

To retain the seat of Montcalm the NDP have recruited Martin Leclerc. He is a sports journalist at Radio-Canada and was union president when he worked at Journal de Montréal.

In Salaberry-Suroît, the Bloc is running former MP for Beauharnois-Salaberry Claude DeBellefeuille. She lost to NDP by 10%.

The Bloc nominated Jean-François Caron in Jonquière. The retiring MP was elected NDP but switched to Bloc. (he said had he known Duceppe would return he would not have announced he would not run again) Caron is the son of a former Jonquière Bloc MP and works in the riding office of the PQ Jonquière MNA. The Conservatives finished second, 8% behind the NDP. It is adjacent to Harper's Quebec lieutenant riding so they will target this and could benefit if there is a more even split of NDP and Bloc vote.

[adma]

The Conservatives finished second, 8% behind the NDP. It is adjacent to Harper's Quebec lieutenant riding so they will target this and could benefit if there is a more even split of NDP and Bloc vote.

Be careful with assessing Con chances in Jonquiere; it's been more of a spot Jean-Pierre Blackburn thing than a genuine Con-lean thing in recent years...

[Hatman 🍁]

The Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte riding is friendlier to the Liberals than the old riding of Barrie was, since it takes out the southern part of the city which is full conservative-leaning bedroom communities. This is a case of a rurban riding that would give the Liberals and NDP a better chance than a purely urban riding.

The south side of Barrie still went Liberal provincially. It is only slightly more Conservative than the rest of the city.

[RogueBeaver]

Moore retiring.

[Hatman 🍁]

Moore retiring.

NDP+1

[lilTommy]

Moore retiring.

NDP+1

Cheers from the NDP's BC team!
Moore's riding was being redistributed out anyway...
NDP's Fin Donnelly is going to have incumbent advantage in Port Moody-Coquitlam... and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman. Sad, it would have been fun to see Moore go up against a reporter/journalist who won an award for exposing some of Moore's comments in regards to child poverty.

[136or142]

Moore retiring.

NDP+1

Cheers from the NDP's BC team!
Moore's riding was being redistributed out anyway...
NDP's Fin Donnelly is going to have incumbent advantage in Port Moody-Coquitlam... and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman. Sad, it would have been fun to see Moore go up against a reporter/journalist who won an award for exposing some of Moore's comments in regards to child poverty.

If this is true, and not some accidental rumor it is a shocker.  He's not even 40 yet (39) and had been widely believed to have interest in running for party leader (not that he can't run from the outside.)  This also suggests that Conservative insiders don't believe their party can form the government after the next election (they may believe the Cons will win the most seats but they obviously believe the Liberals and the NDP will team up to defeat them and put together a government) as this makes the second or third cabinet minister who had been mentioned as being interested in running for leader to announce his retirement (Moore, Peter McKay and to a lesser degree John Baird).

On a couple more minor points,
1.James Moore's riding was redistributed as were nearly all the ridings across Canada, but I believe this new riding is comprised of well over half of Moore's old riding.  According to the redistributed riding results on one of the government websites, the Conservatives received around 55% of the vote in this new riding based on the 2011 election results.

2.The NDP candidate's name is actually Sara Norman, there's no 'H'.  I checked because I made the same mistake myself last time.  Minor point, but out of respect, I do believe we should try to spell people's names properly (and pronounce them properly too.)  Of course, you are completely free to disagree with my opinion on this.

[136or142]

Not a rumor:

Industry Minister James Moore will not be running again in the upcoming federal election in order to spend time with his family and care for his young disabled son, according to a statement released on his website Friday afternoon.

"Balancing family responsibilities while in public life is always a challenge. This is particularly true when you have a child with special needs," the statement reads.

Moore, MacKay just latest loss for federal Conservatives
How to make Parliament more family friendly
"Recently, my wife and I received some difficult news about the health of our beautiful son Spencer."

Moore's statement continues to say he will finish his term as MP and then return home to "pursue new opportunities and be closer to my young family."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/james-moore-conservative-cabinet-minister-leaving-federal-politics-1.3120148

A statement like that will obviously make it difficult for him to run for the leadership should Harper step down after the election.  What's he going to say: "Well, it was more important to care for my special needs child than by Industry Minister, but being Prime Minister is much more important than my son!" or maybe "Praise God! My son miraculously healed!" ?

Anyway, in this case it sounds like 'family considerations' was the actual reason and at Moore won't run to replace Harper, though he could run to replace Harper's replacement.

[lilTommy]

Moore retiring.

NDP+1

Cheers from the NDP's BC team!
Moore's riding was being redistributed out anyway...
NDP's Fin Donnelly is going to have incumbent advantage in Port Moody-Coquitlam... and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman. Sad, it would have been fun to see Moore go up against a reporter/journalist who won an award for exposing some of Moore's comments in regards to child poverty.

If this is true, and not some accidental rumor it is a shocker.  He's not even 40 yet (39) and had been widely believed to have interest in running for party leader (not that he can't run from the outside.)  This also suggests that Conservative insiders don't believe their party can form the government after the next election (they may believe the Cons will win the most seats but they obviously believe the Liberals and the NDP will team up to defeat them and put together a government) as this makes the second or third cabinet minister who had been mentioned as being interested in running for leader to announce his retirement (Moore, Peter McKay and to a lesser degree John Baird).

On a couple more minor points,
1.James Moore's riding was redistributed as were nearly all the ridings across Canada, but I believe this new riding is comprised of well over half of Moore's old riding.  According to the redistributed riding results on one of the government websites, the Conservatives received around 55% of the vote in this new riding based on the 2011 election results.

2.The NDP candidate's name is actually Sara Norman, there's no 'H'.  I checked because I made the same mistake myself last time.  Minor point, but out of respect, I do believe we should try to spell people's names properly (and pronounce them properly too.)  Of course, you are completely free to disagree with my opinion on this.

I appreciate the correct (I only have ever known Sarah's so... my mistake)
new Ekos poll http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/19/the-ekos-poll-bloc-eats-into-ndp-lead-vote-splits-favour-tories-in-ontario/

NDP drops a bit, but specific to the Moore comments, the BC numbers are way up: NDP 37% vs 23% (LPC and CPC) 14% Green
Bloq bounce again showing, as well as some LPC and CPC recovery. The poll again shows a strong three-way race

[136or142]

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When I went to junior high school in the middle 1980s there were a two or three Saras in our class, and none of them had an 'H'.  I believe in the late 1960s early 1970s Sara(h) was the second most popular name for a girl after Jennifer.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, with Prentice, McKay and Moore gone, does this mean Jason Kenney is a sure bet to be the next Tory leader?

[RogueBeaver]

He was always the favourite, but yeah this ups his chances. I'm sure the Reds will find someone.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte riding is friendlier to the Liberals than the old riding of Barrie was, since it takes out the southern part of the city which is full conservative-leaning bedroom communities. This is a case of a rurban riding that would give the Liberals and NDP a better chance than a purely urban riding.

The south side of Barrie still went Liberal provincially. It is only slightly more Conservative than the rest of the city.

Yea, the Liberals did manage to win provincially in Barrie by 4 points.

[Hatman 🍁]

He was always the favourite, but yeah this ups his chances. I'm sure the Reds will find someone.

Michael Chong?

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if the NDP has any chance at either of the two seats?

Unlikely.

[Boston Bread]

Yea, the Liberals did manage to win provincially in Barrie by 4 points.

They won the northern riding but not the southern riding, which was my point.

The last federal election saw Barrie at 57% CPC. The two new ridings are at 54% and 61% CPC, with the northern, more rural riding being less conservative than the original. Not a big difference, but it's clear which one is worth targeting. Even though it's an open seat now, 61% CPC would put Barrie-Innisfil as one of the safer CPC ridings in Ontario.

[adma]

Yea, the Liberals did manage to win provincially in Barrie by 4 points.

They won the northern riding but not the southern riding, which was my point.

The last federal election saw Barrie at 57% CPC. The two new ridings are at 54% and 61% CPC, with the northern, more rural riding being less conservative than the original. Not a big difference, but it's clear which one is worth targeting. Even though it's an open seat now, 61% CPC would put Barrie-Innisfil as one of the safer CPC ridings in Ontario.

Actually, re Barrie, it's a bit more complicated--which is why I'd rather momentarily look upon it as a functional draw.

Yes, BSOM goes into this with the "weaker" Con mandate, and that's by and large because it contains the Lib-leaning heart of Old Barrie.  But also skewing things are the bits of other ridings: neither Bruce Stanton nor Kellie Leitch to the north enjoyed as overwhelming a landslide advantage as Peter Van Loan did to the south, and complicating Leitch's case was Helena Guergis's independent candidacy.  And given current Ontario polling showing the options looking less obviously "binaural" as they once did, here's a *different* twist we must consider: while the Liberals definitely had their stronger (if still 3rd place) notional 2011 numbers in BSOM (assisted by "riural" strength in exurban Midhurst and Medonte's resort/vacation subdivisions), the NDP actually have a slightly *higher* 2011 share in Barrie-Innisfil than in BSOM--in fact, the lakefront communities and subdivisions in Innisfil proper (much like their Georgina counterparts across Lake Simcoe) have long been defined by a "white trash populism" that could readily go NDP if it found that option viable.  As happened in 1990--in fact, when Simcoe Centre (i.e. Barrie + Innisfil + Bradford) went NDP that year, its share was strongest in the Innisfil part.  And strangely enough, if you parse the numbers it doesn't seem like subsequent suburbanizing growth has dampered that NDP potential in Innisfil, either.

So, don't just write off one on behalf of the other, despite whatever the 2011 notional numbers may tell you.