Canadian federal election - 2015

[cp]

Possibly, but I wouldn't be confident of that prediction until I'd seen some sub-regional polls in Ontario. What's their strength in the GTA/905 compared to other regions? Where are the areas of NDP or Liberal strength?

It could just as easily go the other way, with Tories benefiting from a left-wing split. 

[DL]

How can the leftwing be split in Canada when there is only 1 leftwing party - the NDP. I'm looking forward to see the Tories and the Liberals split the rightwing vote!

If Ontario actually had close to a three-way split in the popular vote, I suspect that the seat distribution would be LETHAL for the Liberals. In would guess than in that scenario the NDP would sweep northern Ontario, the downtown and lower income parts of the GTA, the industrial towns of Hamiltonb, London, Windsor, Oshawa, Sarnia etc... the CPC would win all the rural seats and the more upper income parts of the GTA like York Region, Halton etc... and the Liberals could be left with almost nothing - what is their area of strength in Ontario? there is none

[ottermax]

How can the leftwing be split in Canada when there is only 1 leftwing party - the NDP. I'm looking forward to see the Tories and the Liberals split the rightwing vote!

If Ontario actually had close to a three-way split in the popular vote, I suspect that the seat distribution would be LETHAL for the Liberals. In would guess than in that scenario the NDP would sweep northern Ontario, the downtown and lower income parts of the GTA, the industrial towns of Hamiltonb, London, Windsor, Oshawa, Sarnia etc... the CPC would win all the rural seats and the more upper income parts of the GTA like York Region, Halton etc... and the Liberals could be left with almost nothing - what is their area of strength in Ontario? there is none

Parts of the GTA, especially higher income areas will never vote NDP, but aren't fans of the Tories either traditionally - in an election where they are weaker, the Liberals can take advantage of that.

[DL]

Its funny that higher income areas in the GTA would be averse to the NDP considering that its Justin Trudeau that says he wants to increase income taxes on people with high incomes while the NDP says it won't!

[RogueBeaver]

Ches Crosbie donated $2000 to the LPC and Justin's leadership campaign 3 years ago.

[adma]

If Ontario actually had close to a three-way split in the popular vote, I suspect that the seat distribution would be LETHAL for the Liberals. In would guess than in that scenario the NDP would sweep northern Ontario, the downtown and lower income parts of the GTA, the industrial towns of Hamiltonb, London, Windsor, Oshawa, Sarnia etc... the CPC would win all the rural seats and the more upper income parts of the GTA like York Region, Halton etc... and the Liberals could be left with almost nothing - what is their area of strength in Ontario? there is none

The way things are flattening out, I can see the Libs gaining 905 seats almost in spite of themselves...

[Linus Van Pelt]

In a 3-way split of Ontario, the Liberals would likely win most of the generic 905 seats. Even when they lost them in 2011, the margin between them and the Conservatives was mostly a fair bit less than the province-wide number.

[RogueBeaver]

Pupatello resigns her WEDC post, says she's been approached by "political parties." Windsor West?

[Hatman 🍁]

Running would be a bad idea for Pupu. She would suffer the same fate of OLPers who have run federally in safe NDP ridings.

[RogueBeaver]

IIRC this was floated a year or 2 ago, at a local event with Justin and Duncan.

[RogueBeaver]

I was right. Pupatello is interested in Windsor West, though she hasn't committed yet.

[King of Kensington]

Doubt it.

"Rural seats in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario that were once considered safe will now be very much in play."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-poised-to-sign-pacific-rim-trade-deal-putting-safe-rural-ridings-in-play/article25100149/

[King of Kensington]

How can the leftwing be split in Canada when there is only 1 leftwing party - the NDP. I'm looking forward to see the Tories and the Liberals split the rightwing vote!

While the NDP has long said the Liberals and Conservatives are pretty much interchangable parties of Bay Street, in terms of electoral sociology Liberal voters are far closer to the NDP than the Tories.

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St. Paul's!

Here I'm in agreement.  The Liberals are likely to be victims of "Duverger's Law."

[Hatman 🍁]

Doubt it.

"Rural seats in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario that were once considered safe will now be very much in play."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-poised-to-sign-pacific-rim-trade-deal-putting-safe-rural-ridings-in-play/article25100149/

Well, Bay of Quinte is in play, but it's no exactly rural. Peterborough-Kawartha will also be an NDP target and maybe Northumberland-Peterborough.

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus: 32/29/27.

[Hatman 🍁]

Abacus: 32/29/27.

Education breaks don't make sense

[DL]

Abacus: 32/29/27.

Education breaks don't make sense

You mean the LACK of education breaks I assume? Other polling consistently has the NDP way ahead among university grads and the CPC doing best among the un-educated and this poll has all the parties doing about the same in all edcuation groups

[Hatman 🍁]

Abacus: 32/29/27.

Education breaks don't make sense

You mean the LACK of education breaks I assume? Other polling consistently has the NDP way ahead among university grads and the CPC doing best among the un-educated and this poll has all the parties doing about the same in all edcuation groups

Yes, this is what I was getting at.

[RogueBeaver]

Pupatello is an incompetent asshole.

[King of Kensington]

Lawrence Martin refers to NDP as a a party of "blue collar grunts" and says they need a candidate with Bay St. credentials.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/team-ndp-has-a-big-hole-to-fill/article25327652/

BTW no study I've seen says that being a manual worker actually increases one's likelihood of voting NDP.

[Boston Bread]

Haven't had a seat projection in a while, so here's my projection from the Abacus poll.
(With a decrease in the "other" vote applied. Brent would win a seat as an Independent if I actually input 4% other in Alberta as the Abacus poll suggests.)



Notable NDP pickups in Central Nova, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, and Edmonton-Riverbend.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Lawrence Martin refers to NDP as a a party of "blue collar grunts" and says they need a candidate with Bay St. credentials.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/team-ndp-has-a-big-hole-to-fill/article25327652/

BTW no study I've seen says that being a manual worker actually increases one's likelihood of voting NDP.

Aren't unions big supporters of the NDP ? Right wingers always bitch about how union thugs run NDP policy and dictate their demands to hardworking tax payers. Big union towns like Oshawa, Hamilton, Windsor etc all vote NDP.

The other wing of the NDP is the champagne socialist types who are wealthy and highly educated like in Toronto.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP hasn't won Oshawa since 1990

[Boston Bread]

The NDP hasn't won Oshawa since 1990

They have a really good chance this time around. We all know how it went NDP by a surprisingly comfortable margin in the last provincial.

[RogueBeaver]

Noah Richler running as a Dipper in St. Paul's.