Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

Here's a more thorough list of seats that may go against the trend:

Conservative gains:

• Louis-Saint Laurent
• Maybe 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area

Liberal losses:

• None that I can think of. That's to be expected for a party that just got it's arse kicked.

NDP gains:

• Sault St. Marie
• Outside chance at Ahuntsic-Cartierville?

Bloc gains
These are all maybes/outside chances

• La Pointe de l'Ile
• A couple rural seats thanks to vote splitting

Also, I think the NDP may make some gains in BC, and maybe win a few rural Quebec seats they don't currently hold. And of course, at least one seat in Saskatchewan. Everywhere else will be a blood bath for them.

The Tories will probably win more than 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area. Louis-Saint-Laurent is fool's gold though. You think they'll vote against a Trudeau?

The Greens could pick up at least one more seat on Vancouver Island. Probably won't be Victoria like some think though. I'm thkinking Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.

[King of Kensington]

I doubt that very much...the Jewish population in Montreal is shrinking and on top of that younger Jews don't tend to stick around the tacky post-war suburban places where they grew up such as Cote St. Luc - if they stay in Montreal at all they move to ostentatious Mcmansions in Dollard or they move to trendy downtown core places. I'll bet that 10-15 years from now the percentage of voters in Mount Royal who are Jewish will have shrunk from 30% to 20% - if not even less. For all we know, an ugly tacky currently heavily Jewish area like Cote St. Luc could be mostly South Asian or North African a generation from now...

I've noticed this in Toronto as well.  It seems in Toronto the Jewish population in the Annex area is quite high and growing (at least 10% of the population), while in North York it seems to be mostly elderly, Russian and Orthodox Jews (Bathurst between Eglinton and Steeles also seems to be becoming much more Filipino).  In other words, Jews are moving south of St. Clair or out to York Region.

[King of Kensington]

If I were to take a stab at it:

The Jewish population in Westmount is probably demographically most similar to that of St. Paul's.

In Mount Royal, Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.

In Dollard, Thornhill.

(No Toronto equivalent to Outremont).

[Hatman 🍁]

Two nomination meetings today:

- Labour unionist Fred Sinclair has been acclaimed as the NDP candidate in Eglin-Middlesex-London. The Liberals have already nominated their 2011 provincial candidate Lori Baldwin-Sands and the Tories have nominated Karen Vecchio, the EA for the retiring incumbent, Joe Preston.

- Lawyer Joan Mouland will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Haldimand-Norfolk, ON. The Tories have already nominated the incumbent, Diane Finley.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does Bruce Hyer have any hopes of retaining his seat standing as a Green?

[RogueBeaver]

No.

[King of Kensington]

Does Bruce Hyer have any hopes of retaining his seat standing as a Green?

Not a chance - just about the worst type of riding for the Greens.  It will go Liberal or NDP. 

[adma]

The NDP is tanking right now in Northern Ontario, there's no chance they'll win Sault Ste. Marie. It will be a Liberal-Tory race.

Maybe tanking; but not necessarily *that* kind of tanking--at this point I'd deem it a genuine 3-way.

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Though there's more overlap w/Baird's former *provincial* seat, before he went federal.

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On behalf of a Gérard Deltell, they might.

[136or142]

For anybody interested, the Saskatchewan NDP is already nominating candidates for the next provincial election: http://www.saskndp.ca/team and the Estevan nomination is today.  I didn't feel like starting up a Saskatchewan election thread just for this.

The Manitoba NDP has also nominated a number of candidates  (all incumbents) though that obviously isn't the party's focus right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is tanking right now in Northern Ontario, there's no chance they'll win Sault Ste. Marie. It will be a Liberal-Tory race.

Maybe tanking; but not necessarily *that* kind of tanking--at this point I'd deem it a genuine 3-way.

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Though there's more overlap w/Baird's former *provincial* seat, before he went federal.

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On behalf of a Gérard Deltell, they might.

Oops, I was thinking of the wrong riding. Yes, the Tories have a chance in Louis-Saint-Laurent. (Another reason why I hate ridings named for people!)

[King of Kensington]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals.  

This is correct. I was confusing (and maybe you are as well) Louis-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Quebec City) with Lac-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Montreal).

A better Tory target in Montreal is Pierrefonds-Dollard, anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Right you are. He still has nothing for ROQ Francophones, which he needs if he ever wants a majority.

[King of Kensington]

How is Robert Libman as a Tory candidate in Mount Royal?  Is he a star or kind of a has-been at this point?

[RogueBeaver]

Good get, still respected, but Housefather wins easily.

[Hash]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals.  

This is correct. I was confusing (and maybe you are as well) Louis-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Quebec City) with Lac-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Montreal).

A better Tory target in Montreal is Pierrefonds-Dollard, anyways.

Lac-Saint-Louis

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals.  

This is correct. I was confusing (and maybe you are as well) Louis-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Quebec City) with Lac-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Montreal).

A better Tory target in Montreal is Pierrefonds-Dollard, anyways.

Lac-Saint-Louis

You see, I still can't get it right.   It doesn't help that it's on the Saint Lawrence (St-Laurent).

[King of Kensington]

Wonder if there's any truth to this:

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/01/13/exclusive-liberals-in-talks-with-chief-blair-to-run-in-upcoming-federal-election/

Blair could run in Scarborough Southwest or Scarborough North.  They'll be hard enough for the NDP to defend even against a generic Liberal, but with Blair they're toast.  They wouldn't have Blair replace a retiring Liberal - he's too strong a candidate and they'll want him to knock enough an incumbent.  

Blair lives in Guildwood I think - but I'm pretty sure McKay is running again.

[Hatman 🍁]

They won't need a strong candidate to win back any Scarborough seat. Actually, Scarborough North *might* be a challenge.

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough Southwest looks like the only Scarborough riding without a nominated Liberal candidate.

ETA: TDSB chair Shaun Chen is the Liberal candidate in Scarborough North.

[King of Kensington]

Good get, still respected, but Housefather wins easily.

Premature on my part.  Looks like the party wants TV journalist Pascale Déry to run in Mount Royal.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/former-tva-journalist-pascale-dery-to-seek-conservative-nomination-in-mont-royal

[136or142]

One of the provincial NDP candidates in either Regina or Saskatoon is a university student, the traditional sacraficial lamb.  Now, I don't know if that particular riding is one of the more NDP ridings in the city, but then the NDP used to hold every Regina and Saskatoon seat for quite a number of years.

If anybody wants me to put up a new thread for this rather than posting it here, please tell me.  Or, if you'd rather I just go away, please tell me that too.

[DL]

Wonder if there's any truth to this:

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/01/13/exclusive-liberals-in-talks-with-chief-blair-to-run-in-upcoming-federal-election/

Blair could run in Scarborough Southwest or Scarborough North.  They'll be hard enough for the NDP to defend even against a generic Liberal, but with Blair they're toast.  They wouldn't have Blair replace a retiring Liberal - he's too strong a candidate and they'll want him to knock enough an incumbent.  

Blair lives in Guildwood I think - but I'm pretty sure McKay is running again.

The Liberals have not yet nominated anyone to run againstg Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence either

[Hatman 🍁]

One of the provincial NDP candidates in either Regina or Saskatoon is a university student, the traditional sacraficial lamb.  Now, I don't know if that particular riding is one of the more NDP ridings in the city, but then the NDP used to hold every Regina and Saskatoon seat for quite a number of years.

If anybody wants me to put up a new thread for this rather than posting it here, please tell me.  Or, if you'd rather I just go away, please tell me that too.

Probably should start a new thread.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bunch of nominations today:

LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, QC: Liberals have a contested race between David Lametti and Marc Tremblay. NDP have nominated LaSalle-Emard MP Helene Leblanc.

Montcalm, QC: BQ nomination race between Marc Michaud and Jacques Tremblay.

Barrie-Innisfil, ON: Green nomination race between Bonnie North and Robert Rodgers. Barrie MP Patrick Brown has been nominated for the Tories (though this might change if he wins the PC leadership).

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON: Green nomination race between 4 time candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins and Mary Lancaster.

Sarnia-Lambton, ON: NDP nomination between Joseph Hill and Jason McMichael. This is an open seat, and the best bellwether in the country (voted for winner since 1963).

Calgary Confederation, AB: NDP will acclaim former provincial candidate Stephanie McLean.  The Tories have already nominated former MLA Len Webber and the Liberals have nominated lawyer Matt Grant, an former EA to a couple of MLAs.